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Completing the Paris Ambition Mechanism in Glasgow

http://blog.oxfordclimatepolicy.org/completing-the-paris-ambition-mechanism-in-glasgow/

OCP/ecbi Webinar 3 September 2021

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Professor Benito Müller

Director ecbi, MD Oxford Climate Policy

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https://ecbi.org/news/common-time-frames-reducing-options-decision-glasgow

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Accounting

At present, there are NDCs ending in (“with a time frame up to”) 2025 and others in 2030. Not having the same end-years makes global accounting very difficult, if not impossible. This applies not only to the Global Stocktake, with its backwards review of the state of implementation and its forward assessment of the collective ambition, but also to issues such as the avoidance of double counting in global emission trading (Art.6).

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Enhancing Ambition

Parties are unlikely to ‘spontaneously’ enhance the ambition of their previously communicated NDCs on their own – or at least not as much as they would be willing and able to in coordination with their international partners and competitors, and such a coordinated ambition enhancement requires an advance notification of the initially proposed levels of ambition

The Challenges

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Addressing these challenges requires:

  • simultaneous end years for all NDCs;
  • a sufficient advance notification of NDCs;
  • a timetable for regular consideration of enhancing the level of ambition of previously communicated NDCs.

The Solution

What do you mean: ‘Common Time Frame’?

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Based on a comparative analysis of the six official UN language texts, the post concludes that the outcome of these negotiations ought to include the adoption of common end-years for NDCs

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The Solution

All this can be provided by adopting the following very simple Decision – to complete the Ambition Mechanism of the Paris Agreement in Glasgow: The CMA

  • requests Parties to communicate by 2025 a nationally determined contribution with a time frame up to 2035, and to do so every five years thereafter;
  • also requests Parties to consider in 2025 updating/adjusting their existing nationally determined contributions with a view to enhancing levels of ambition, and to do so every five years thereafter.

The Glasgow Ambition Cycle

Addressing these challenges requires:

  • simultaneous end years for all NDCs;
  • a sufficient advance notification of NDCs;
  • a timetable for regular consideration of enhancing the level of ambition of previously communicated NDCs.

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All this can be provided by adopting the following very simple Decision – to complete the Ambition Mechanism of the Paris Agreement in Glasgow: The CMA

  • requests Parties to communicate by 2025 a nationally determined contribution with a time frame up to 2035, and to do so every five years thereafter;
  • also requests Parties to consider in 2025 updating/adjusting their existing nationally determined contributions with a view to enhancing levels of ambition, and to do so every five years thereafter.

The Glasgow Ambition Cycle

1. For NDCs communicated in 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, etc., what specific guidance should the decision on common time frames provide?

2. Considering the advantages and disadvantages of each existing option…, how could possibly conflicting concerns be reconciled? Especially, in light of the obligation to submit every five years enhanced NDCs, how would the proponents of 10-year time frames abide by that obligation?

3. How might the decision appropriately balance the nationally determined nature of domestic climate policy planning with a suggested common time frame?

Guiding Questions

For the informal ministerial consultations of 7 September

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Thank you!

Happy to answer questions.

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director@oxfordclimatepolicy.org

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