My perspectives are those of an outside economist, broadly familiar with, but not deeply expert in, Scottish and UK housing markets and policy.
I have undertaken studies of rent controls and related subjects in a range of countries; Turner and Malpezzi (2003) is a good place to start.
In preparing these remarks I have benefited enormously from:
Scottish Government’s A New Deal for Tenants.
Video contributions and papers by colleagues including but not limited to Ken Gibb, Duncan Maclennan, Steve Pomeroy and Christine Whitehead.
Recent research; a list of citations is available in the PowerPoint accompanying these remarks, available upon request.
Comments and corrections are most welcome. Contact me at sjmmad@gmail.com.
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Today’s discussion
Some current events
Economists’ views on rent controls
Economists’ views on housing supply
Lessons, questions, next steps?
Sources and further reading
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Today’s discussion
Some current events
Economists’ views on rent controls
Economists’ views on housing supply
Lessons, questions, next steps?
Sources and further reading
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It's easy to find
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Kettunen and Ruonavaara (2021) classify 33 European rent regimes, circa 2017
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Source: Malpezzi (2022)
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This BoE forecast is for England, not Scotland,�but gives pause
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Today’s discussion
Some current events
Economists’ views on rent controls
Economists’ views on housing supply
Lessons, questions, next steps?
Appendices
Sources and further reading
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Rent control: a common view of economists
The theoretical analysis of rent control rests on some principles which are quite elementary, indeed distressingly so. They are so obvious that one would feel the greatest reluctance to repeat them in a professional journal were it not that a great public policy has been erected upon either ignorance or a repudiation of them.
Grampp (1950)
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Rent control: a more nuanced view?
In recent years, however, there has been a wave (or at least a swirl) of revisionism among housing economists on the subject of rent control. While few actually advocate controls, most are considerably more muted and qualified in their opposition. Perhaps a majority, at least among the younger generation, would agree with the statement that a well-designed rent control program can be beneficial.
Arnott (1995)
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Chicago Booth/IGM Forum �economists’ opinion poll on rent control
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Textbook model of rent control: a price ceiling is like a tax on housing capital. At the lower price, demand increases to QRC2 but supply decreases to QRC1, leading to a shortage.
Chart from Gibb Soaita and Marsh (2021)
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Arnott’s (1995) critique of the “standard” view
The standard view focuses on comparative static analysis of a “first generation” rent freeze in a competitive market.
“Second generation” control regimes, which allow but limit increases, may be less draconian in their effects.
Arnott argues that housing markets are imperfectly competitive.
Allowable increases may be related to inflation, cost pass-throughs, allowances for landlord hardship, provision of fair rates of return. New construction may be treated differently than existing units. Details will matter.
Units may re-price, at market or a higher controlled price, when vacant. Recent literature sometimes refers to these separately as “third generation” controls.
Arnott also notes that rent controls are often coupled with regulations on security of tenure, which further complicate analysis.
Arnott’s bottom line is not that second generation controls are per se desirable, but that “second-generation controls should be judged on the empirical evidence and, since the programs are so varied, on a case-by case basis.”
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Alternative adjustment mechanisms which can equilibrate a notionally controlled market
Markets must adjust in some fashion in a long run, given alternative opportunities for landlords and a housing stock of limited durability.
Four of the adjustments can be embodied in rent control laws:
indexing (keeping real rents constant)
reassessment for new tenants,
differential pricing of new and existing units,
differential pricing for upgraded units.
Four are market responses
outright evasion
side payments such as “key money”
adoption by tenants of maintenance expenditures,
accelerated depreciation and abandonment,
distortions in consumption, not only in the composite housing services but also crowding, length of stay, mobility and tenure choice.
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Kholodilin (2022) surveys some of the empirical literature on the direction of some rent control effects
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Today’s discussion
Some current events
Economists’ views on rent controls
Economists’ views on housing supply
Lessons, questions, next steps?
Sources and further reading
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Three broad ways to categorize sources of supply
Tenure: own or rent?
More complex: what is the bundle of property rights, e.g. what sort of tenure security/lease provisions do renters enjoy?
Own structure on leased land?
Public, private, or something in between?
Public, e.g. council or local authority housing
Private
Social housing; housing supplied by non-profit, non-governmental entities
New construction, or the existing stock?
New construction
Maintenance, upgrading/remodeling
Conversions from one form to another, e.g. convert rental units to condominiums; or subdivide a large house to multiple apartments
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Malpezzi (1996): Rent control and reduced per capita housing building permits across 58 U.S. metropolitan areas
Taken together, changing state and metro level land use variables from first to third quartile values, and adding rent control, reduces normalized building permits by 42 percent.
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Caldera and Johansson: Price responsiveness of housing supply and speed of supply response for 21 OECD countries
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Caldera and Johansson: Cross-country correlation between supply responsiveness, and number of days required to obtain a building permit
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Except in the very long run, most housing – especially most affordable* housing – comes from the existing stock
Some rough back-of-the-envelope comparisons (neglecting annual volatility, vacant and second homes, etc.):
In the U.S., new construction is generally 1-3% of the total stock in any given year. Nationally, it’s rare to hit near 2 percent in a boom year.
In China, roughly 15M housing units are built every year in a country with 500M units of existing stock, i.e., new construction is around 3 percent or so.
The UK builds about 200K housing units per year for 28M households, or about 0.7 percent of the existing stock.
Scotland builds under 25K units annually, compared to about 2.4 million households; this comprises about 1 percent of the existing stock.
Outside of public production programs most affordable housing comes from “filtering.”
As homes age, they often “filter down” to become affordable housing.
NB filtering can work in both directions (see gentrification). Many studies suggest most filtering is downward, not upward but this can vary by country/market.
*Definitions of affordable differ. See Meen (2018)
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Today’s discussion
Some current events
Economists’ views on rent controls
Economists’ views on housing supply
Lessons, questions, next steps?
Sources and further reading
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A few questions
A New Deal for Tenants mentions several important topics in passing:
Housing benefit/allowances
Planning, land use and development regulations
Measuring costs and benefits of controls, both efficiency and distributional effects; effects on landlords as well as tenants
Data requirements monitoring housing conditions
More explicit discussion of political economy, including “insider/outsider” interests, issues of short-run versus long-run outcomes
Housing and related stresses during the COVID-19 pandemic
Should these receive deeper treatment, be more fully integrated into the discussion of rent regulation?
Could the objectives of the legislation be specified more precisely? E.g., enhance affordability? (How is affordability defined?) Provide an alternative to social, local authority housing?
What other actions could address these objectives?
Have spillovers to other sectors of the housing market, labor markets, public finance, been fully considered?
Once initiated, how will rent regulations be monitored and, if necessary, modified? Are the same rules appropriate before and after the Pandemic emergency? Are sunset provisions needed?