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Creating the enabling environment for enhanced climate ambition in the livestock sector

Bernard Kimoro

Head: Climate Change and Livestock Sustainability Section

State Department for Livestock

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Introduction

  • Kenya was amongst the first countries to sign Paris Agreement and present ambitious target to achieve 30% reduction of its GHG emissions by 2030 against the baseline.

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  • The Country is committed to a low carbon climate resilient development pathway as part of this green growth strategy.

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  • This is being supported through a robust climate policy framework that includes current progress to develop a long-term strategy towards a net zero GHG emission by mid century

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Kenya GHG Emission Projections

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Emissions Trend in AFOLU

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Share of emissions in AFOLU

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Agricultural sector emissions

  • Agric emissions are expected to increase by 23 % by 2030 compared to 2015 mainly driven by livestock enteric emissions
  • Most emissions are from ruminant livestock (Dairy and non-dairy cattle)

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Facts about Kenyan Livestock Sub-sector

  • 7 million households' own livestock

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  • Livestock population comprises 18.8 million cattle (14.3 million beef cattle and 4.5 million cows), 26.7 million goats, 18.9 million sheep, 3.2 million camels, 44.6 million poultry, 1.9 million donkeys, and 0.5 million pigs

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  • About 60 percent of the livestock population is found in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) where 90 percent of the resident population raise animals traditionally both for milk and beef production

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Trend in Livestock emissions by sub-category 1995-2015 (Gg CO2 eq)

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Livestock Population (Historic)

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Emission Scenarios for Kenya’s Livestock Sector to 2050

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Kenya’s NDC

Kenya submitted its NDC on 28th December 2016

The NDC set out both adaptation and mitigation contribution

Mitigation contribution was to abate GHG emissions 30 % relative to BAU (143 mt CO2 eq) by 2030

Revised NDC has set this at 32 % below BAU

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Why enhanced ambition in livestock sub-sector?

  • Livestock sub-sector contributes over 90 % of agricultural GHG emissions and about 20% of Kenya’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, driving further climate change

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  • The livestock Sub-sector has been identified as a key player in the mitigation of GHG emissions from the agricultural sector while contributing to national food and nutrition security

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  • The sub-sector is expected to quickly transition to sustainable livestock production to balance vulnerability to climate change and mitigation of livestock GHGs = Kenya ambition is Net Zero by 2050

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Role of AFOLU in NDC

Agriculture and LULUCF (AFOLU) with 42 % of 143 mt CO2 eq are expected to take lead role in mitigation

Current NDC has prioritized climate actions in AFOLU for mitigation

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Livestock target in Kenya’s NDC

  • Dairy Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (Dairy NAMA)
    • Targets 267,000 Households
    • Productivity gains – Reduce emissions intensity
    • Efficiency energy use at secondary production
    • Circularity - biodigesters

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Constraints to creating the ambition

  • Common challenges (Institutional capacity)
    • Lack of critical mass of experts to undertake inventory

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    • Poor resourcing of the process (manpower and funding)

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  • Methodological challenges
    • Tier 1 to estimate – overestimation of emissions??? (ILRI, 2021)

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    • Lack of Country specific emission factors to reduce uncertainties

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    • Accuracy of data for quantification of emissions

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Overcoming the Constraints to support the ambition

  • Enhancing skills of technical staff involved in inventory

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  • Core team – Strategic actors in inventory process (policy; statistics; research; academia; national MRV; etc.)

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  • Using projects to cascade skills to sub-national level

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  • Iteratively moving to Tier 2 for inventory – Dairy – Non-Dairy-Shoats-Camels

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  • Continuous improvement in quality of data – Use projects/Programmes to support the collection

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GHG Inventory using Tier 2

Dairy Cattle Inventory used in NIR and preparation of Updated NDC

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Long term Strategy for Agricultural sector

  • Development of Agriculture sector Long term strategy
    • Longer-term agenda to guide near and long-term climate action and planning

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    • Help to guide updating of successive Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

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Conclusion

  • The Livestock sector is important for realization of Kenya’s NDC targets

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  • Therefore increasing ambition is NOT an option

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  • However, there is need to ensure adequacy of policies, institutions and processes