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WHY WAS LUCAS GIOLITO SO MUCH BETTER IN 2019 THAN 2018?

Jacob Hahn

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STAT COMPARISON

Year

W-L

ERA

WHIP

FIP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

WAR

2018

10-13

6.13

1.48

5.56

6.5

4.7

1.4

0.1

2019

14-9

3.41

1.06

3.43

11.6

2.9

1.2

5.1

FANGRAPHS

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MECHANICAL CHANGES

  • GIOLITO CHANGED HIS DELIVERY AND RELEASE POINT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO CHANGES IN MOVEMENT, CONTROL, AND SPIN

MLB NETWORK

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FOUR-SEAM FASTBALL

  • 2019: 55% usage
  • Velo: 94.2 (0.15 z)
  • X-movement: -0.64 (0.06 z)
  • Z-movement: 1.52 (0.92 z)
  • 2018: 39% usage
  • Velo: 92.4 (-0.53 z)
  • X-movement: -0.68 (0.19 z)
  • Z-movement: 1.30 (0 z)

2018 2019

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MORE CONTROL, LESS BAD MISSES

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MORE CHASING, ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE ZONE (likely due to Z-movement)

MLB Averages

Mean

StDev

Velocity

93.8

2.63

X-movement

-0.62

0.32

Z-movement

1.30

0.24

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CHANGEUP

  • 2019: 26% usage
  • Velo: 81.7 (-1.11 z)
  • X-movement: -0.85 (-0.87 z)
  • Z-movement: 1.02 (1.15 z)
  • 2018: 16% usage
  • Velo: 81.7 (-1.11 z)
  • X-movement: -0.91 (-0.67 z)
  • Z-movement: 0.72 (0.74 z)

2018 2019

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WILLING TO THROW THE BALL HIGH, NOT LIMITED TO ONE SPOT

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MORE CONSISTENT MOVEMENT

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MORE CHASING ON LOW PITCHES

MLB Averages

Mean

StDev

Velocity

85.3

3.25

X-movement

-1.12

0.31

Z-movement

0.57

0.39

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SLIDER

  • 2019: 15% usage
  • Velo: 84.6 (-0.16 z)
  • X-movement: 0.22 (-0.59 z)
  • Z-movement: 0.48 (0.90 z)
  • 2018: 15% usage
  • Velo: 83.9 (-0.38 z)
  • X-movement: 0.23 (-0.57 z)
  • Z-movement: 0.22 (0.19 z)

2018 2019

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MORE CONTROL OVER THIS PITCH, FEWER BIG MISSES AND FEWER DOWN THE MIDDLE

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FEWER HITS OFF THIS PITCH AND MOST WERE ON THE EDGE OF ZONE

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MLB Averages

Mean

StDev

Velocity

85.1

3.15

X-movement

0.47

0.42

Z-movement

0.15

0.37

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CURVEBALL

  • 2019: 4% usage
  • Velo: 79.4 (0.06 z)
  • X-movement: 0.57 (-0.53 z)
  • Z-movement: -1.27 (1.10 z)
  • 2018: 10% usage
  • Velo: 78.6 (-0.17 z)
  • X-movement: 0.70 (-0.24 z)
  • Z-movement: -1.14 (0.83 z)

BOTH FROM 2018

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STRUGGLED TO CONTROL THIS PITCH IN 2018, SO LIMITED ITS USAGE IN ‘19

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GAVE UP LOTS OF HITS IN MIDDLE OF PLATE AND LOTS OF BIG MISSES

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MLB Averages

Mean

StDev

Velocity

79.2

3.57

X-movement

0.81

0.45

Z-movement

-0.74

0.48

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2-SEAM FASTBALL

  • 2018: 20% usage
  • Velo: 92.4 (-0.29 z)
  • X-movement: -1.22 (-0.04 z)
  • Z-movement: 0.95 (0.35 z)

VERY LITTLE CHASING

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DOESN’T MOVE AS MUCH AS HIS OTHER PITCHES

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MLB Averages

Mean

StDev

Velocity

93.1

2.45

X-movement

-1.23

0.23

Z-movement

0.85

0.29

GOT HIT A LOT, ESPECIALLY WHEN LEFT DOWN THE MIDDLE

DID NOT THROW THIS PITCH IN 2019

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MOVEMENT'S EFFECT ON PERFORMANCE

Many exceptions, but appears that lots of Z-movement and not much X-movement leads to the lowest exit velocities.

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Giolito’s increase in Z-movement likely was the main cause for his success.

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SUMMARY

  • LUCAS GIOLITO SAW BIG IMPROVEMENTS FROM HIS 2018 TO 2019 SEASON
  • HIS FASTBALL AND BREAKING BALLS SAW SMALL VELOCITY INCREASES
  • ALL PITCHES SAW LARGE INCREASES IN Z-MOVEMENT, WHICH LED TO MORE CHASING OF BAD PITCHES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO HIS NEW ARM ACTION AND RELEASE POINT
  • HIS CONTROL ALSO IMPROVED, POSSIBLY DUE TO A DECREASE IN HORIZONTAL MOVEMENT, AS HE THREW MORE STRIKES AND AVOIDED THE MIDDLE OF THE PLATE
  • HE ALSO CHANGED HIS ARSENAL, ELIMINATING HIS 2-SEAMER, LIMITING HIS CURVEBALL, AND THROWING MORE 4-SEAMERS AND CHANGEUPS
  • HE COULD STILL IMPROVE BY WORKING ON CONTROLLING HIS CURVEBALL. IT HAS VERY GOOD MOVEMENT BUT IS NOT ACCURATE ENOUGH TO BE EFFECTIVE

PITCH DATA FROM BASEBALL-SAVANT

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VISUALIZATIONS FROM TABLEAU