1 of 36

Stabilizing Spaceship Earth for Security, Safety, and Prosperity

CARL PAGE: PRESIDENT and CO-FOUNDER

May 19. 2023

Tokyo, Japan

Hi,

Today our Anthropocene Institute focuses on the stability and beauty of Spaceship Earth.

Focus on tech for Energy and ocean security.

I'm Carl Page.

I’ve been an entrepreneur. Worked on eGroups which became yahoo groups, and started working with Japan that way.

I have the Masters in computer science and engineering from Michigan.

I also took some climate science and environmental history coursework when I was in college at U of M..

Now I'm working to advance the adoption of good tech in the energy space.

I’ve long admired Japan’s Engineering Excellence,

including safely operating complex systems.

The Triple Disaster caused a crisis of confidence.

It is a challenge to guarantee that a reactor meltdown will never happens again,

without retreating to more dangerous and expensive technologies.

2 of 36

Japan’s Choice:

95% Dependance on imported fuel

vs 400% Independence?

Conventional Nuclear

Advanced Nuclear

Enhanced Geothermal Energy

Ocean Current Underwater Hydro

�Wind & Solar

C

3 of 36

Technological Innovations that Japan Led and can Apply to Boost Nuclear Innovations

3D Printing

Massive increase in computing power

50 years of tech starting with transistor

have not been included in nuclear power yet.

image credit:

https://news.mit.edu/

4 of 36

Applications and Decoupling of Human Activities on Environment Opportunities Using Nuclear

Water Desalination

Synthetic Fuel

Growing proteins

Recycling and Upcycling

Medicine

Education

5 of 36

Go For The Win

Focus More on:	And STOP! :
Boldly Engineer a Better World	Mitigating Misery
Climate Restoration	Preparing for Catastrophe
Long Term Investments	Quarterly Return Myopia
Dispel Misinformation	Partisan battles
Engineers	Lawyers & Bureaucrats

FAST Slide!

Quarterly: Wall street is like a casino, momentary excitement but no interest outside the next Quarterly report.

They fight money “wasted” on engineering that could have been a stock-buyback.

If we can get big companies to take seriously their 10 year survival-- they will decide to fix climate collapse without further direction from government.

But the owners of public companies are the casino players, and they enjoy the daily drama too much.

It’s a big game and the government helps set the rules, and we can do better.

Profit and greed are not the problem. We make much more profit with smart long term focused efforts.

Engineers deliver new technology, and that is the only actual source of prosperity.

Why do we spend so little money on new technology?

It's not generosity. It's good sense, in the long term.

6 of 36

Run Away Climate.�Brakes on Fire!

"Net Zero" Is

Only When We Take

Our Foot Off the

Accelerator!

2050?!?

Why Net-Zero CO2 is a Bad Goal?

Pray

for

Us!

Why are we asking for Net Zero Someday? �Net Zero Yesterday would not help us.

Spaceship Earth is like a Truck roaring down a mountain with overheated brakes on fire.

No way to Slow down. Gotta change direction and head up hill.

Net Zero means taking the foot off the accelerator pedal.

That's not bold! Not sufficient.

We are not slowing down. The brakes are not working.

When we need to change direction, slowing down doesn’t help.

Did anyone here take Calculus?

Why are people trying to take credit for solving the 2nd derivative of the problem, in the distant future.

When it’s obvious we could have a calamity soon.

Earth needs a Stable Energy Balance.

So Pray for us AND demand new technology.

We build uphill “runaway truck ramps” for when brakes fail.

We invest in the capacity to change direction, in advance.

We should b even more careful with the whole planet than with one truck!

7 of 36

Climate restoration!

SURVIVAL DEPENDS ON ACHIEVING 300 PPM CO₂BY 2050

Restored photosynthesis in the ocean, triggered by iron dust (iron fertilization): Sequester carbon in the deep ocean. This is how nature causes ice ages. In process.

Growing kelp and sargassum: Alternative to iron fertilization. Kelp and sargassum photosynthesize quickly, and can be sunk to sequester the CO2. In process.

Synthetic limestone: Replacing quarried rock with synthetic limestone for paving and building. In process.

source: Peter Fiekowsky: Climate Restoration Update: September 2021

280

420

8 of 36

MODEST PROPOSAL: CLEAN UP ALL POLLUTION SOON �

8

This Requires MORE and CHEAPER energy such as WIND, SOLAR, AND NUCLEAR!

Clean

Up

After Yourself!

Greenhouse Gases

Nitrogen Phosphorus � dead zones

Run-off & Erosion

Disease agents, PM2.5

Footprint Pollution vs Habitat

Trash & Plastic

Ocean Acidification

H+

CO₂CH₄

N P

Mud

Germs

Sprawl

Garbage

20 Year Warranty on Planetary Comfort & Safety

The minimum promise we can make to the upcoming generation of kids, is that the planet will be comfortable and stable for 20 years.

But today climate scientists cannot promise that.

We should and can zero out the top 10 categories of Pollution that pose danger to Humans, their economy, and Wildlife, biodiversity. �Lets rule out catastrophes due to pollution. We know how.

It seems Expensive, if energy were the price of coal.

We can afford it if we use Advanced Nuclear and one-cent solar.

The reason Ocean Acidification is #1.

It is more likely to cause catastrophe sooner than warming.

It’s also simple to understand.

Plankton and fish cannot live in sparkly carbonated water,

and it’s easy to tell when they must change radically, based on emissions.

If you like breathing, you owe every-other breath to the ocean plankton.

The ocean could stop making Oxygen, and make Rotten egg gas instead.

It’s happened before, causing widespread extinction of most animals.

Can’t afford that!

9 of 36

Demand the Energy We Need For Modern Life Especially in Disasters

Decoupling Technosphere from Ecosphere�Restore Biodiverse wild lands & seas

Disaster Recovery: Weatherproof Life Support & Energy Infrastructure

Industrial energy for Minerals and Manufacturing

Carbon neutral fuel

Large scale desalination for people, farms and wild areas facing drought

Source: Anthropocene Institute

Essential Services cannot depend on wind and solar if climate change makes unpredictable weather

10 of 36

To Get a Better Price, Buy More!

Energy Efficiency becomes LOW PRIORITY once it is Cheap, Clean & Safe

Energy Industry Profits

Low Price Energy

for Climate and

Social Goals

11 of 36

Good News:

Sufficient funding but spent poorly.

Russia’s nuclear power allowed Europe to be dependent on Putin’s Gas.

Difficult to oppose the Ukraine attack.

Germany Demonstrated Political Will for Climate Control!

FAST Slide! or skip Germany did a wonderful thing helping the solar and wind industry grow.

They demonstrated the political will to solve climate change by raising all the necessary cash.

Unfortunatley they didn't get what they paid for. Didn't even catch up to France, because they shut down nuclear and didn't invest anything at all in nuclear innovation.

Hey, if you can't win the argument with grownups, it's not ok to take it to kids and give them nightmares about fake fallout stories!

Die Wolke is a German elementary school text that hits that traumatizes kids with gruesome implausible tales about about everyone dying of nuclear fallout. Now an award winning Japanese Anime!

It's not smart to trade domestic clean energy for foreign dirty energy.

The world's richest man, Vladimir Putin moved his country to nuclear. That allows him to sell more fossil gas and Gazprom Stock to friendly politicians in anti-nuclear Europe. The Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder is sanctioned as a Russian Agent.

12 of 36

Size-Up Your Opponent

Institutions are made of humans, but not human.
Never let A Cartel Claim to be a “Free Market”

Wall street is a Casino Operator, and has been forcing public companies in to shorter term decisions to juice quarterly profit. �Deters engineering and building a strong business. �Supports immediate gratification and hollowing out the business.

It is Typical to spend 5% of Revenues on "Marketing"

2022: The global Oil & Gas industry had revenue of $4 trillion

Therfore total Bizdev, govt relations, �marketing budget will be around $200 Billion.

Imagine:

1,000,000 Salesmen!�Touting Oil And Gas Everywhere

Nuclear Power is Really Dangerous...

Only to the Fossil Fuel Industry!

13 of 36

Celebrate 100th Anniversary of the Teapot Dome Oil Scandal!

In 2020, Fossil Fuels Received $5.9 Trillion In Subsidies.

14 of 36

Anti-Nuclear Movement

Anti-Nuclear Energy Groups Include (Source: WikiPedia)
2010: American Petroleum Institute, �Pennsylvania Independent Oil and Gas Association, Marcellus Shale Coalition 2019: Shell, Statoil, and partners, spent $1 Billion in Adverts for Renewables Plus the "perfect partner" Fossil Gas Fossil vendors like Atlantic Richfield helped found environmental organizations with anti-nuclear stances, like Friends of the Earth.	The Sierra Club, Environmental Defense Fund and Natural Resources Defense Council openly used grants from people associated with frack Gas, for campaign "Beyond Coal". In 2011, Greenpeace advocated for fossil gas instead of nuclear power to provide "flexible backup for wind and solar power".

15 of 36

Projection is a PR Defense Tactic

So Turn It Around! Respond to the real culprit: Fossil Fuels.

Stop explaining intricacies of nuclear power fuel cycles or regulatory regimes.
Put it in context.
Beat the alternative.

Accuse your opponent of your own vulnerabilities.

Example: "Nuclear power plants release radiation."

Because: Coal plants release 10,000 times as much radiation and it's actually a problem.

16 of 36

US Nuclear Regulatory Commission � Neglects Health Effects of Energy System

NRC is Not Protecting People.

Perhaps they protect the Industry. �Perhaps they protect the Fossil Fuel Industry.

Imagine if

In an abundance of caution regulators study a safety concern causing a 2 year delay in opening of 10 Nuclear Power plants.

The cost is increased death.

Therefore 10 American Coal plants run 2 years longer

NRC would kill 4000 people in reality, vs a theoretical concern.

It’s worse in reality. �NRC delays stopped fossil replacement for about 50 years, causing several million deaths… NEGLECTING CLIMATE EFFECTS.

17 of 36

What If The World Had France’s Power Mix� Plus Nuclear Synthetic Transport Fuels and Building HVAC

IEA, 2017

As Ontario & Sweden achieved recently!

18 of 36

Environmental Consequences of Worldwide Adoption of the 1980's French Energy Plan That Would Be Visible In 2022

✅ Greenhouse Gasses 75%	Less In Total.
✅ 11 Million Less Deaths	✅ No weird weather
✅ No Crazy wildfires	✅ 166 billion ton CO2 avoided
✅ No Annual Observation of the Hottest Temperature Ever	✅ No Recent Oil Wars
✅ Less fatalism and Learned Helplessness?	✅ More Wall Street Gains.

19 of 36

Quick Quiz Question:

Answer:

That's 9E16…

What is 90,000,000,000,000,000?

20 of 36

Nature Laughs At Fossil Fuels

Energy($) is

90,000,000,000,000,000

times fuel in g.

Today there's probably�100 kinds of atomic energy unexplored.

Wind and solar, and other mechanical energy harvesting, are the flux of our star's power –�We also have high-energy Supernova Ash to stabilize, like Thorium and Uranium.

21 of 36

Menu of Nuclear Power Options. Balance Risks.

	Scientific Risk. �Unknown unknowns. ONLY ONE TIME COST!	Financial Risk�Competition.�Supply chain. CAPITAL EXPENSE	Engineering Risk�breaks down too fast. OPERATING EXPENSE	Regulatory Risk�Competitors exploit Fear BUREAUCRATS
Fission LWR "nuclear power"	OK
Water Free Fission MSR HTGR “Gen4”	OK	OK
Hot Fusion�"thermonuclear fusion"
Solid-State Fusion.�LENR New Hydrogen Energy		OK		OK

SMR

Here is a useful way to divide the opportunities in Nuclear innovation.

Traditional water reactors are the top row, and we all know too much about them.

They are being held up because of lack of enthusiasm from investors.

We can get past that with smaller, safer, cheaper realtors that underprice all competition.

If we use the same nuclear fission reactions, but use modern engineering, we can cut costs. Leaving the water out, is a tremendous advantage.

Try not to talk about Small Modular Reactors, because that conflates some very good and very silly things.

Making the old wet reactor smaller, only reduces the cost 3x and you need at least 10x to take a new product to market.

But leaving the water out should give you at least a 20x cost reduction.

On Hot fusion, like in the Sun, you have all heard about it, because they have a $20 million budget for advertisements. But the sun is not very powerful. It is impressively warm only because it’s very big and thick- if you had a cube of Sun in your basement it would not make as much heat as compost heap. Tough job.

Solid State Fusion is a catch all for a number of companies and research programs which use materials, nanoscale phenomenon, to initiate nuclear reactions, fusion, fission, neutron accumulation, transmutation energy.

We will talk more about this. They don’t advertise yet, so you might not have heard of any of them.

22 of 36

Http://GotNuclear.Net

If you don't celebrate your victories you stop having them. So we give thanks, to the people who are saving lives in our community. We created this site to answer:

Assuming a nuclear plant displaced coal power, how many lives has it saved?

----------------------

Shows the NRC's Error. They don’t balance the lives saved for sure vs possible harm. �That shows little value on human lives, or the climate.

The Regulators appear to only be concerned about their own reputation if they made an error and by their own action hurt someone. They don’t mind killing millions by neglecting their responsibility.

If the NRC delays a nuclear plant's opening for a year, due to an abundance of caution, that kills 200 people.

If they delay two plants for a decade, that kills as many people as Chernobyl,. �The NRC has killed 1000 times as many people than Chernobyl by delaying implementation of clean energy.

But the real problem is shutting down the cycle of innovation. You simply must build to learn.

Remember, I'm not blaming the people at the NRC.

Congress and their patrons set up the organization and are evidently satisfied.

23 of 36

We need a much faster & Cheaper build out

USA Department of Energy says over 300 Coal Plants can be converted to run on Uranium and Thorium using Advanced Modular Reactors

24 of 36

Standardized Seismic Isolated Heat Source at Adequate Temperature

TerraPraxis Selects �Terrestrial Energy Generation IV Nuclear Technology for the Repowering Coal Consortium

Manufacturing Non-Pressurized Reactors�Requires Factories and Shipyards and Workforce�Now Used for Diesel Production.

Supply Chain is 100% Available Today.

25 of 36

China is Leading SMR Deployment Efforts

image credit: https://www.ans.org

The plant features two small reactors that drive a single 210 MWe turbine.

26 of 36

China Leaps Forward

MSR announced for warships in partnership with USA's Oak Ridge's Lab. Original home of the MSR.

One Coal to Nuclear Conversion using MSR is underway.

But.. Should Japan really depend on China for ALL energy?

Solar Wind and Nuclear?

One MSR reactor built and commissioned.

Good News! If Japan is Lazy we will buy it from China.

27 of 36

Nuclear Fuel is Renewable �Like Wind and Sunlight

Breeder Reactors make more fuel than they consume.
Thorium is plentiful beyond any conceivable need.
Japanese Researchers found Polymers to get Uranium from the Ocean which has
4.5 billion tonnes. Using polyethylene fiber with chelating groups

�

Bioinspired hierarchical porous membrane for efficient uranium extraction from seawater

Linsen Yang, Hongyan Xiao, Yongchao Qian, Xiaolu Zhao, Xiang-Yu Kong, Pei Liu, Weiwen Xin, Lin Fu, Lei Jiang & Liping Wen

Nature Sustainability 71–80 (2022)

“… in natural seawater, the membrane can extract as much uranium as 9.03 mg g−1 after four weeks. This work suggests a strategy to be extended to the rational design of a large family of microporous polymer adsorbents that could fulfil the vast promise of the oceans to fuel a reliable and potentially sustainable energy source.”

28 of 36

29 of 36

The Centennial Anniversary of Solid-State Nuclear Fusion!

29

* Also known as Cold Fusion or Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR)

1922	2022

Solid-State Atomic and Fusion Energy (S-SAFE) *
1922: Helium production from exploding wire observed: ACS Irion and Wendt
1989: Pons & Fleischmann succeeded using electrolysis
Third Kind of Nuclear Power Neither Fission nor Fusion (nor muon-catalyzed cold fusion) Hydrogen to Helium and heat like Fusion Tritium production observed But Tell-Tale Radiation mostly missing So LENR mechanism is not Fusion
Observations continue despite lack of consensus theory
2015-now: Gov activities: NEDO (Japan), Horizon 2020 (EU), Clean MHE (EU)
2015-2019: Google funded study with MIT, UBC, LBNL, and UM - Nature paper
2023: ARPA-E $10 million LENR funding announced

FAST Slide! Before I mentioned Solid State Fusion and many new ways to release nuclear binding energy, besides self-sustaining fission and fusion reactors.

One of the most important observations for nuclear energy actually was 100 years ago. Irons and Wendt observed in an ACS Paper that with an exploding wire They Made helium. The observation was very controversial. Rutherford was extremely critical and tried to discredit them. But the exploding metal hydride wire is used today to initiate nuclear reactions.

Nuclear reactions can work differently in materials than in gas or plasma. They can be stimulated using technology.

Neutron accumulation causes transmutations.

Lasers and piezoelectric effects, and bubble cavitation events create high energies.

We are now able to build nano features like quasi particles.

Can we make useful amounts of energy by tiny amounts of transmutation?

Some of these reactions are things that a chemist might call fusion based on the observed chemical changes.

But a physicist would not call it fusion because for them that means a specific reaction chain which is not happening. The radiation and nuclear mechanism are clearly different.

In 1989 Pons & Fleischmann said they found a way to avoid exploding the catalyst wire using electrochemistry in 1989.

The premature paper release set the wrong expectations for replication and so there was great confusion and frustration. There was a rush to judgment, partly because the researchers thought it was easier than it turned out to be.

But no paper describing the mistake withstood scrutiny, and by now the reaction is well characterized.

30 of 36

31 of 36

Growing Ecosystem for LENR

Source: Anthropocene Institute / LENRIA

Clean Planet (Japan)

Brillouin Energy (USA)

32 of 36

Nikkei: Japan is one of the Leaders in the (Cold) Fusion IP Race

Source: astamuse / Nikkei / Clean Planet (Feb 22, 2023)

Number one in Cold Fusion

33 of 36

In case you’ve missed!

33

34 of 36

Hot Fusion Vs. Solid State Fusion (LENR)

Source: Anthropocene Institute / BYJU’S / Nature

Fusion Solid State Fusion / LENR

HOT FUSION (IN PLASMA)

LENR (IN MATERIALS)

VS.

Skip Slide! True physics is uncomputable at non trivial scales.

There is not a good model of "high temperature superconductors" for instance.

No simulators come close to being able the combo we are dealing with.

high energy states,
lots of particles,
far out of equilibrium, far from the ground state,
with quantum color dynamics
all the ways energy moves around a material, sometimes coherently.

Chemistry and material simulations are at less than one ev.

Nuclear reactions are at millions.

Nuclear simulations handle two particles. Chemistry has millions.

There are lots of things that are real that mathematical models cannot yet predict.

In computer science we call it incompleteness.

In physics it's a reason they cannot peer review your paper.

I don’t want’ to convince you that this is the way to produce safe nuclear energy. .

I want to point out that today there are 100 ways to do it, waiting for the explorer, using today’s tech.

35 of 36

Beware Half Steps Becoming Face Plants

Goal is not Net-Zero. Goal is to stabilize the Earth’s system and clean up all forms of pollution.

Conversion of coal (and natural gas) plants to nuclear power plants low hanging fruit opportunity for global decarbonization.

Japan poised to lead in manufacturing of nuclear technologies resistant to Fukushima type meltdowns.

36 of 36

Thank you!

ありがとうございます！