Climate in the 2024 Election and Beyond
January 2025��Danielle Deiseroth, Executive Director
Key Themes
Climate’s Role in 2024 Election
The top issues in the 2024 election were the economy and immigration.
Climate change was the most polarized issue in 2024, according to exit poll data.
Source: AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press
Climate’s Role in 2024 Election
Young voters (18-29) listed the economy as their top issue.
A similar percentage of young voters (8%) listed climate as their top issue.
Source: AP VoteCast Survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News and The Associated Press
Climate’s Role in 2024 Election
Source: CIRCLE Post-2024 Election Youth Poll
Asian Youth | 38% |
College-Educated Youth | 30% |
White Youth | 29% |
Latino Youth | 27% |
Young Women | 26% |
Young Men | 24% |
Non-College Youth | 20% |
Black Youth | 13% |
Percentage of Young People (18-29) Who Say Climate Was One of Their Top Three Issues in the 2024 Election:
A higher proportion of young voters considered climate one of their top three issues.
This percentage is highest for Asian and college-educated youth, and lowest for Black youth.
Who Is a Climate Voter?
Voters who say climate is their most important issue in the voting booth:
Source: Data for Progress, 26,851 respondent interviews of likely voters from
August 30 to November 14, 2024,
Race or Ethnicity
Education Level
Age
Voters Reject Repealing the IRA
Most Voters Have Heard Little About Efforts to Repeal the IRA
Sept. 27 - Oct. 9, 2024 survey of 2,701 U.S. registered voters
Most voters have heard little to nothing at all about Congressional Republican plans to end various IRA components.
Lack of awareness about these plans is shared across demographic groups, though a greater proportion of rural voters report hearing nothing at all compared to voters belonging to other groups.
A/B SPLIT - Voters Prefer to Keep, Rather Than Repeal Key IRA Incentives
Sept. 27 - Oct. 9, 2024 survey of 2,701 U.S. registered voters. This question was asked of 1,357 RVs as part of an A/B test.
:
A majority of voters say Congress should keep each of the key IRA credits and incentives that we tested, rather than repeal them, with the exception of EV incentives.
Notably, A/B split testing shows framing the threat to these incentives as a “repeal” is more effective than a “roll back” – particularly among Republicans.
Sept. 27 - Oct. 9, 2024 survey of 2,701 U.S. registered voters. This question was asked of 1,357 RVs as part of an A/B test.
:
Voters across demographic groups prefer to keep rather than repeal IRA incentives. More than 7 in 10 voters prefers keeping tax credits for home energy efficiency and weather- proofing upgrades.
Fewer rural voters prefer keeping EV and solar tax credits, compared to voters overall.
A/B SPLIT - Voters Prefer to Keep, Rather Than Repeal IRA Incentives
Sept. 27 - Oct. 9, 2024 survey of 2,701 U.S. registered voters
:
Voters are generally concerned about household- level impacts they may face from potential IRA repeal.
Reduced energy reliability during extreme weather events is a top concern, both overall and in terms of concern intensity.
Voters Are Concerned About Household Impacts of Repealing the IRA
Addressing Urgent Climate Needs
Voters Are Facing Rising Costs
In December polling, a majority of voters said their home insurance costs have increased, a crisis exacerbated by recent climate disasters in California and North Carolina.
Voters Support Policies to Address Economic Impacts of Climate Disasters
Voters support funding efforts to prevent and respond to extreme weather, making it easier to address the economic impacts of climate disasters.
Voters also support creating a national insurance fund and helping pay for the costs of home insurance for families in need.
Voters Want to See Investments in their Climate Needs
This follows previous research finding that a majority of voters across party lines want more federal funding for disaster relief.
Addressing Costs Is Essential - Transmission Support
High energy bills also shape attitudes toward energy infrastructure overall.
Voters say that lowering their energy bills is the most important reason they would support building new transmission infrastructure in their community.
Addressing Costs Is Essential - Solar Adoption Motivation
For voters who say they are likely to install solar panels in the next five years, lowering their energy bills is the most important reason they would consider installing rooftop solar.
Addressing Costs Is Essential - Solar Adoption Barrier
Meanwhile, among voters who say they are unlikely to install solar panels, high upfront installation costs are the primary reason they say they are unlikely to make this choice.
Public Opinion Is Not On Trump’s Side
Voters Support Taking Action to Address Climate Change
Seventy percent of voters, including a majority of Republicans, support taking action to address climate change.
Despite Threats, the IRA Remains Popular
Seventy-two percent of voters support the IRA, including a majority of Republicans.
Our polling has found consistent support for the bill since it was passed in 2022.
Voters Say They Support Ramping Up Clean Energy Over Fossil Fuels
Clean energy development is more popular than fossil fuels.
Voters support ramping up clean energy on public lands over allowing new fossil fuel leases by a +6-point margin.
Voters Would Prefer the Federal Government Prioritizes Clean Energy
Approving new clean energy projects on public lands is more popular than approving new fossil fuel drilling by a +14-point margin.
Voters Have Limited Awareness of Trump’s Climate and Energy Plans
Voters have not heard much about Trump’s climate and energy plans in the first week of his term, although young voters have heard more.
Voters Are Divided Over Trump’s Climate and Energy Actions
Despite limited awareness, Trump’s climate and energy actions are unpopular.
We find the least support for banning offshore wind and ending the American Climate Corps. A plurality of voters supports ending policies to support EVs and declaring a national energy emergency.
41%
43%
38%
49%
38%
42%
Voters Oppose Ending Protections Against Drilling on Public Lands
Voters overall, and Independents by a -31-point margin, oppose ending protections against oil and gas drilling on public lands around national monuments.
Any questions?
Please contact Danielle Deiseroth at danielle@dataforprogress.org