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The Chaos in College Sports: Unpacking the House settlement

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  • Peyton Barish, Consultant, Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics
  • Josh Fine, Fellow, Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship, Syracuse University
  • Paula Lavigne, Investigative reporter, ESPN
  • Moderator Jodi Upton, Knight Chair in Data and Explanatory Journalism, Syracuse University

bit.ly/4ktxDaU

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What we’ll cover

  • Who’s impacted by the House settlement
  • What is the cap (and how is it calculated)?
  • Revenue sharing vs NIL
  • Roster limits and scholarship increases
  • New reporting requirements
  • Challenges and equity
  • BONUS: How to use the Knight Newhouse College Athletics Database to break stories at your school

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Key Background on Proposed House Settlement

These conferences are the Defendant Conferences.

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  • Notre Dame

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Who’s included?

  • Back damages: 390,000 DI student-athletes are eligible and most have opted in to receive part of the $2.8B settlement.

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  • At least 350 student-athletes have opted out; most have joined other lawsuits

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  • The Ivy League has declared its intention to opt out. North Dakota flagship schools adopting “wait-and-see” approach

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When does it take effect?

  • If the judge approves the proposed settlement following an April 7 hearing, it will take effect on July 1, 2025.

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  • Most schools are struggling to make the changes, decide who gets revenue-sharing and write contracts for student-athletes by July 1.

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New model for athlete benefits from institutions

New roster limits and scholarship structure

Back damages of approximately $2.8 Billion

Key Background on Proposed House Settlement

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Is revenue share the same as NIL?

  • No. Under the proposed House settlement, the importance of NIL is somewhat diminished, though deals are still allowed.

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  • Revenue-share, instituted by House, allows schools to pay athletes up to $20.5M (cap). It is not employment, or contingent on a “deal.”

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What is the cap?

Based on 22% of the average Power Five/Four revenue on the following categories:

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  • Ticket Sales, Guarantees, Media Rights, NCAA distributions, Conference Distributions (Bowl and non-Bowl) Royalties, licensing, advertisement and sponsorship, Football Bowl Revenues.
  • You can find these on the NCAA FRS reports
  • It will be recalculated every three years.

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How will the revenue share data be reported?

  • As part of the NCAA Revenue and Expense report each school submits to the NCAA
  • Revenue:
    • It will come from the following categories: 1, Ticket Sales; 7, Guarantees; 11, Media Rights; 12, NCAA distributions; 13, Conference Distributions (Non Media and Non-Football Bowl); 13 A, Conference Distributions of Football Bowl Generated Revenue; 15, Royalties, licensing, advertisement and sponsorship; and 19, Football Bowl Revenues.
    • 22 percent of those categories, averaged over all the schools in the class.

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This is an NCAA FRS report. Get it for your school but we’ll show you another source.

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2023 Total Revenues for NCAA Division I Groupings

Public Division I Median Institution per Competitive Grouping

FBS

Autonomy 5

Defendant Conferences

FBS

Group of 5

FCS

Basketball-Centric

No Football

Budget Range for Institutions in FBS Autonomy 5 Grouping =

$80 to $280 Million

Budget Range for Institutions in Basketball-Centric/No Football Grouping =

$4 to $45 Million

$145 M

$42 M

$19 M

$18 M

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Institutional Cap for New Athlete Payments & Benefits

$90.8M

$9.9M

$3.2M

$1.7M

FBS Autonomy 5/ Defendant Conferences

Median Institution

FBS Group of 5 Median Institution

FCS

Median Institution

No Football Subdivision Median Institution

DI institutions that opt-in are subject to the cap for Defendant Conferences ($20.5 million in 1st year), unless individual conferences adopt lower caps.

(Example graph: 2023 revenues for median public DI school in each DI grouping)

Revenue Categories*

*The House settlement uses eight revenue categories to determine the institutional cap. All eight are combined within the four broad categories seen above.

Cap is 22% of these revenue categories – FY26 cap projected to be $20.5 million per Defendant Conference institution.

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Institutional Cap for New Athlete Payments & Benefits

$90.8M

$9.9M

$3.2M

$1.7M

FBS Autonomy 5/ Defendant Conferences

Median Institution

FBS Group of 5 Median Institution

FCS

Median Institution

No Football Subdivision Median Institution

DI institutions that opt-in are subject to the cap for Defendant Conferences ($20.5 million in 1st year), unless individual conferences adopt lower caps.

(Example graph: 2023 revenues for median public DI school in each DI grouping)

Revenue Categories*

*The House settlement uses eight revenue categories to determine the institutional cap. All eight are combined within the four broad categories seen above.

Cap is 22% of these revenue categories – FY26 cap projected to be $20.5 million per Defendant Conference institution.

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What are the new NIL limits?

  • There are no limits on third-party NIL deals.
  • Deals that come from collectives or school boosters are analyzed for fair-market value. This is likely problematic.
  • Boosters who have given >$50,000 to a school will have NIL deals tested for fair market value
  • Many schools may eliminate/fold-in collectives

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Do athletes report income?

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  • Student-athletes must report >$600 in revenue to an NIL clearinghouse

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  • Transparency may be limited. Possible athletic department-wide reporting; individual reporting to Deloitte

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Why roster limits?

  • No more head count sports (mandatory full scholarships, previously football and a few others)
  • Replaced by max number on a team and scholarships can be split as athletics chooses
  • Thousands of athletes have lost and will lose positions on teams nationally (one of the biggest objections to House)
  • No more 120-athlete rowing teams to balance football via Title IX

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Where will schools get the money?

  • Fund raising
  • Cuts in Athletics departments
  • Elimination of teams/positions
  • College Football Playoff expansion/new media deals (conference distributions)
  • Student fees, university general fund, endowment

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Will this impact all schools and subdivisions the same?

  • No. Schools that opt-in must adhere to all aspects of the settlement (all-in or all-out)
  • Everyone has the same cap, regardless of revenue
  • Many opt-in schools are far more reliant on student fees and school revenue – which will likely increase. (Clemson)

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Public Division I Medians per Competitive Grouping

2023 Revenue Sources Shown as a Percentage of Total

Revenue Categories

FBS Autonomy 5/ Defendant Conferences

Median Institution

FBS Group of 5 Median Institution

FCS

Median Institution

No Football Subdivision Median Institution

$145 MILLION

$42 MILLION

$19 MILLION

$18 MILLION

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How to find the data

knightnewhousedata.org

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Finding the Dollars

Revenue and Expense Reporting

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Expense Reporting

  • Likely a new category for “publicity rights payments to student-athletes.”
  • Will be broken down by sport.
  • Note: because this rev/exp form is actually a survey – not a true balance sheet - the expense ones are more “purpose based than accounting based.” For example, student-athlete meals was a category added a few years back.

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Challenges and equity

  1. Efforts to unionize are effectively dead (for now), though all student-athletes will have a revenue-sharing contract which will likely look a lot like an employment contract.
  2. One employment case Johnson v. NCAA continues to work its way through the courts.
  3. Cap may violate antitrust law, and conflict of interest for plaintiff attorneys (required to support Congressional antitrust exemption)

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Challenges and equity (cont.)

3. Damage payout is too low and unfair to female athletes.

Back damages ($2.8B) are paid out:

  • 75% to P5 football players
  • 15% to P5 men’s basketball players
  • 5% to P5 women’s basketball players
  • 5% all other eligible Division I athletes

Revenue sharing ($20.5M a year) will likely follow the same structure

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Challenges and equity (cont.)

Does Title IX apply to revenue-sharing and NIL deals?

  • On Jan. 16, 2025, the Ed Dept issues guidelines declaring the revenue distributions “athletic financial assistance" and therefore must be shared proportionally between men and women athletes. It noted that third-party NIL deals were not subject to those rules on their face, but if money from private sources ends up creating a disparity in an athletic program, it is possible that NIL agreements could "trigger a school's Title IX obligations."
  • On Feb. 12, 2025, via executive order from President Trump, the Ed Department revoked the “11th hour” guidelines from the outgoing administration.
  • Likely be tested in court.
  • Currently not addressed in the settlement language.
  • If Dept. of Education is eliminated, Title IX work could go to Dept. of Justice

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Equitable Pay

Title IX and Athlete Pay

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Title IX and Athlete Pay

  • Over the past year, colleges and universities had been seeking guidance from the U.S. Department of Education on whether Title IX gender equity laws would apply to revenue distributions and third-party NIL deals
  • On Jan. 16, 2025, the Ed Dept issues guidelines declaring the revenue distributions “athletic financial assistance" and therefore must be shared proportionally between men and women athletes. It noted that third-party NIL deals were not subject to those rules on their face, but if money from private sources ends up creating a disparity in an athletic program, it is possible that NIL agreements could "trigger a school's Title IX obligations."
  • On Feb. 12, 2025, via executive order from President Trump, the Ed Department revoked the “11th hour” guidelines from the outgoing administration.
  • Likely be tested in court.
  • Currently not addressed in the settlement language.

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Title IX and Athlete Pay

  • On Feb. 12, 2025, via executive order from President Trump, the Ed Department revoked the “11th hour” guidelines from the outgoing administration.
  • Likely be tested in court.
  • Currently not addressed in the settlement language.
  • Power conference schools have plans to give most of the money to athletes in sports that generate the most revenue -- mostly football and men's basketball players.
  • In some cases, upward of 75% could go to football players.
  • Possibly less than 5% to women’s sports

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It’s a lot of money. Is it fair?

NFL vs. NCAA Football Revenue Comparison FY23

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NFL vs. NCAA Football Revenue Comparison FY23

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Additional Information

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Questions? Talk to us…

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