CONNECTIONS ‘09

Anticipating DoD S&T Needs and Opportunities

Anticipating DoD S&T Needs and Opportunities

• Panelists:
• Dr. Mike Macedonia, Forterra
• Bob Barton, CAPT USN (OSD DDRE)
• Prof Mark Montroll, NDU ICAF
• Matt Caffrey, AFRL XPPW

robert.barton@navy.mil

montrollm@ndu.edu

macedonia@computer.org

matthew.caffrey@WPAFB.AF.MIL

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Insert Mike

Knowledge Network

for Innovative Technologies

A new national security capability at OSD –

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Defense Research & Engineering, Joint Reserve Unit (DDRE JRU)

A National Security Need Identified – Additional and Enhanced Capability to US DoD Research and Engineering

Superior technology has been, and continues to be, a cornerstone of the U.S. military’s strategic posture. The DoD R&E program is shaped by national security strategy, warfighter needs, and technological opportunity. Today, the wide availability of technology and the agility of our adversaries demand that the DoD R&E program be executed with urgency, agility, and creativity, in order to develop the technology to defeat any adversary on any battlefield…

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DoD R&E requires rapid access to a needs-matched capable, agile, and highly skilled resource…

…The Approach – A Joint Service �STE Reserve Unit (JRU)

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Mission – To BE a “knowledge network,” facilitating sharing and capture of emerging, innovative, and disruptive technologies, to maintain the U.S. military’s preeminent capability advantage.

Unit Strategy – Emphasizing the Reserve Science, Technology, Engineering and Venture Capital network, provide DDR&E Staff with fresh perspectives through dynamic and innovative thinking while augmenting DDR&E Resources for Emergent Issues including:

• Technology Transition Programs (including Venture Capital)
• Foreign Technology Assessment
• Disruptive Technologies Wargame (“Red Teaming”)
• Defense Support Teams
• Identified Critical Projects and Process Improvement
• Technology Scouting & Due Diligence Evaluation

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The JRU is the core enabler of a new DDRE knowledge network

…Several of these capabilities did not exist until created by JRU…

Broad Network of Private Sector Relationships

Technology

Finance

Academia, Labs & Think Tanks

Law

Government

Defense

Knowledge Network

for Innovative Technologies

Forecasting Emerging Technologies for Defense Planning

Defense Science and Technology Strategy and Planning

A Changing� World . . .

Emerging�Technology

DDR&E / USD(I) Technology Net Assessment Program

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• Goal: To better integrate the intelligence community into the DoD R&D planning process as well as provide DoD research and development input to the national technical intelligence collection strategy.

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• Compared U.S. and foreign capabilities (existing and emerging) in selected technology areas
• DoD scientists and engineers, or “blue” teams, worked collaboratively with the intelligence community (“red” teams) to determine where differences between U.S. and foreign technology capabilities exist, and assess whether the differences pose a discernable threat to U.S national security.

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• To date, six assessments completed
• Initial topics selected by DDR&E and USD(I) based on 2002 “Linking S&T to Transformation” study in response to Strategic Planning Guidance tasking

S&T Wargaming – input to the STNA process

• DDR&E vehicle for longest term look at technology
• Focus on “revolutionary” rather than “evolutionary”
• Identify and raise awareness about potential over-the-horizon “game-changers”
• Pervasive Tagging and “Line defense”
• Human Performance Modification & Degradation
• Technology Availability
• Provides indicator of potential future S&T net assessment and/or studies

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DoD Impact

Provides data, critical analysis, and recommendations to the Director, DDR&E Plans and Programs to enhance DDR&E's key decision making efforts in future Defense Research and Development (R&D) investments.

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Customer Feedback

• Defense Weekly – “…top priority is to better assess future threats – intends to expand red-teaming & wargaming within decision making processes…” (J. Young, DDRE)

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• “… the JVRU 2006 wargaming activity continues to impact DoD S&T on several fronts. … both the preparation and execution of the wargame were conducted with such excellence that the findings and recommendations exceeded our expectations..” (A. Shaffer, Plans & Programs, DDRE)

Accomplishments:

• 2006 - 2008 wargame results and recommendations briefed to DDRE directors
• Defense Science Board briefed - recommended expansion of red-teaming and S&T wargaming efforts

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Current Status:

• 2009 wargame 16-20 July at National Defense University in planning
• Focus area – energy

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With SMEs from joint services, inter agencies, and industry - identify and evaluate in a "red team" environment, potentially disruptive technologies that would affect or change the way the DoD carries out military operations in the future.

Conducted in support of the DDR&E-USD(I) technology net assessment program

A New DDRE Capability, Disruptive S&T Wargaming

The rapid development and proliferation of technology has created a challenging landscape for the DoD future S&T investment decision process. In particular, Disruptive Technologies - those whose application can/will change the way the US deploys forces in the future - need to be identified at home and abroad, assessed for potential impact on national security, and countered or mitigated through strategic investment and domestic and/or foreign acquisition so as to avoid technological surprise.

Problem Statement:

Approach:

Construct of the War Game

• Establish the Objectives of the Game
• Identify the Technology Focus – From DDR&E
• Information Technology
• Sensors
• Human Performance
• Set Up Construct of the Game Play Targeted to the Specific Technology Basket
• Develop Scenario Specifically Designed to Stress the Technology and Match the Game Construct
• Work out the Logistics of the Game
• Play Out the Game

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Scenario Development for the War Game

• Develop Scenario Specifically Designed to Stress the Technology and Match the Game Construct
• Look for a “real-world” situation that can be scaled in time and dynamic breadth – Africa, Asia, Middle East�
• Create situations where technology might impact strategy and operations – limited funds, technology, span of reach, people, etc..�
• Leave significant ambiguity so team players can interpret scenario broadly to their advantage, order of battle VERY general – team players help define technology impact during play�
• Define specific move points – subject to broad interpretation �
• Ask probing questions of team players – why did they adapt their strategy? Why did they chose the systems they did? How are they planning to use the tools to support their strategy? How do they expect their advisories will react to their move?

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Scenario Development for the War Game

• Horn of Africa, 2027
• Yellow is large country, rich in oil and other minerals
• Brown is a neighbor and competitor of Yellow.
• Red Alpha is a religious majority in power in Yellow, Red Bravo is an indigenous group vying for power.
• Orange is a near-peer competitor to Blue, with strategic oil investments and interest in Yellow.
• Red Bravo has been conducting small scale attacks on pipeline for years

Yellow

Capital City Red-Alpha

Port Orange

Red-Bravo

Pipeline

Rail

Blue/NGO

Game Construct and Play

• At least One Red Team is a “non-traditional” group of players.
• Non-technical – typically financial background, venture capital experience
• Assigned to “think-differently”
• Follow Disruptive Technology Model and Mind-Set
• Keep all Boundaries Soft – Allow team members to make assumptions�
• Have White-Cell Reporters in Each Team�
• Typically Run Game Over Three Days – 4 to 5 moves�
• Change Team Membership in Mid-Course
• Make Red Players Blue
• Make Normal Players Disruptive or Disruptive Players Normal
• Ask one team to execute another teams strategy�
• Encourage Non-traditional doctrine, operations, and technology utilization from both “traditional” and “non-traditional” team players

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Results & Impact

• Providing focus areas of further study for the DDR&E/USD(I) STNA program
• Red Teaming role in DoD S&T Decision Process
• Direct support of other DoD studies and initiatives
• Expanding the Knowledge Network

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