Cross the Pond

Wx Briefing

Project Firmament Global Operations Center (EGOC)

Dispatcher: Marin M. Yang

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Version History

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Oct. 23 First advisory

Oct. 24 Second advisory

Oct. 25 Third advisory

Oct. 26 Fourth advisory

Oct. 27 Fifth advisory

Oct. 28 Sixth advisory

Oct. 29 Seventh advisory

Oct. 30 Final advisory

Update Schedule

About this product

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Synoptic Scale Outlook/Discussion

(Oct. 30 / 08z, FINAL ADVISORY)

For the Cross the Pond Eastbound Event (Oct. 30 12z onward, all routes)...

Precipitation from a low-pressure system will be present for much of the Northeast US and Appalachians. Up to 28kts wind gusts for KBOS. Probability of limited visibility and ceiling for CYYZ. For detailed impacts see TAF table for departure fields.

Gusty winds up 35kts at Vienna (LOWW). Conditions across other European arrival airports are expected to be fair. Beginning 18z or so, a low-pressure over the North Atlantic will begin to impact Ireland. This will bring gusty winds to Dublin (EIDW) late into the event. For detailed impacts see TAF table for arrival fields.

Conditions across Atlantic ETOPS adequate aerodromes expected to be fair. For details see TAF table for ETOPS adequates.

The NHC is monitoring a strong low-pressure system over the Atlantic between Bermuda and Azores. The system could produce thunderstorms up to FL340 and could potentially impact the southernmost event tracks (Z).

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How to Use this Product

The TAF overview section provides a summarized view of forecast weather conditions across airports and the duration of the event.

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For each selected ETOPS adequate aerodrome, the forecast condition must be above the dispatch minima for the entire duration of its usage time window, for an ETOPS flight plan to be valid (legal).

The dispatch minima are higher (more restrictive) than published approach minima and only apply before a flight’s departure.

*The minima may vary depending on regulatory authority (FAA/EASA) and aircraft type. Here, the dispatch minima provided by Project Firmament DoO and used in the TAF table are based on a Category D aircraft and FAA (AC 135-42) standards. The EU-OPS minima may be lower (less restrictive).

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TAF Overview - ETOPS Adequates

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TAF as of 30/04z.

TAF Overview - Departure Fields

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TAF as of 30/08z.

TAF Overview – Arrival Fields

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TAF as of 30/04z.

How to Use This Product

• Explanation of Colors Used in TAF Table
• Green: No significant weather impacts (minor impacts may still be noted with text abbreviations) based on published TAF.
• Yellow: Adverse Condition (Outlook). Adverse condition is expected but this is not based on published TAF. Expect to change.
• Red: Adverse Condition (Forecast). Adverse condition is forecast based on published TAF.
• Purple: Condition is below ETOPS dispatch minima based on published TAF (more information see slide).
• This only takes into account ceiling and visibility. Excessive crosswinds may also render an adequate aerodrome invalid. Consult the operational crosswind limit in airplane manuals if an XWIND condition is present.
• N/A / NOSIG Expected: No significant impact expected, or predictability is too low. Expect to change.

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How to Use This Product

• Selection of ETOPS adequate airports
• The TAF table provides a list of recommended ETOPS adequate airports for CTP routes, as well as their approximate location in relations to the NAT HLA for reference. However, the specific adequate airports used for each flight depends on the flight plan and route. They may be manually selected by the dispatcher or automatically selected by software (not recommended).
• In the case that the forecast condition of an ETOPS adequate airport falls below the dispatch minima (Purple on Table), it is to be delisted as adequate airport and it may require new adequate airport to be selected or the ETOPS scenario to be upgraded.

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Adequate Aerodrome

Location Reference

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Graphical Forecasts

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Graphical Forecasts

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Tropical Weather

WPC Prog Chart

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Graphical Forecasts

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Mesoscale Forecast (30/12z)

Probability of LIFR (30/12z)

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Graphical Forecasts

NAT HLA

/Europe

(30/18z)

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About This Product

This is a one-stop weather briefing and advisory service to aid flight planning and ATS decision-making during the CTP event.

For any inquiries and suggestions about this product, please contact the dispatcher in the MeteoNautics discord.

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Please direct your flight planning and dispatch questions to EoF Global Ops Center. We will be happy to assist!

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Update Schedule

• This product will be updated daily at or before UTC 1200z up until the day of event.
• On the day of event (Oct. 30), the synoptic scale discussion and TAF tables will be updated one last time at or before UTC 1000z.
• In the event of unforeseen adverse weather, additional updates may be made.

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Advisory Archives

(Oct. 23)

For the Cross the Pond Eastbound Event (Oct. 30, all routes)... Forecast models show a potential weak low-pressure system close to the Great Lakes region. Forecast models show a potential windstorm close to the British Isles.

(Oct. 24)

For the Cross the Pond Eastbound Event (Oct. 30 12z onward, all routes)... Forecast models show a potential weak low-pressure system close to Northeast US. Forecast models show wide areas of potential precipitation close to the British Isles and Western Europe. The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure off the New England coast that has the potential to develop when it moves over to the North Atlantic later this week.

(Oct. 25)

For the Cross the Pond Eastbound Event (Oct. 30 12z onward, all routes)... Forecast models show a large low-pressure system in eastern US. Potential impact to departure field(s): KBOS Forecast models show wide areas of potential precipitation over Western Europe and Iberian Peninsula. Impacts to ETOPS adequate: LPPR. Impacts to other aerodromes are unknown as of yet. The forecast tables will be updated when information becomes available. The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure off the US East coast that has a moderate chance to develop and acquire tropical cyclonic characteristics when it moves over to the North Atlantic later this week. We will continue to monitor developments of the system.

(Oct. 26)

For the Cross the Pond Eastbound Event (Oct. 30 12z onward, all routes)... The synoptic scale weather pattern across Eastern US will be dominated by a large low-pressure system. Potential impact to departure field(s): KBOS Forecast models show areas of precipitation across Western Europe and Iberian Peninsula. Impacts to ETOPS adequate: LPPR. Impacts to arrival field(s): LEMD. Other impacts are unknown as of yet. The forecast tables will be updated when information becomes available. The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure off the US East coast (Invest 94L) that has a moderate chance to develop and acquire subtropical cyclonic characteristics when it moves over to the North Atlantic later this week. We will continue to monitor developments of the system.

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Advisory Archives

(Oct. 27)

For the Cross the Pond Eastbound Event (Oct. 30 12z onward, all routes)... The synoptic scale weather pattern across Eastern US will be dominated by a large-scale low-pressure system. Potential impact to departure field(s): KBOS and KJFK. Areas of precipitation and low ceiling over Iberian Peninsula. Beginning 18z or so, a low-pressure over the Atlantic will begin to impact Ireland. Impacts to ETOPS adequate: LPPR, EINN. Potential impact to arrival field(s): EIDW (late into the event). No significant impact expected at other event fields. The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure off the New England coast that has a moderate chance to acquire subtropical cyclonic characteristics when it moves over to the North Atlantic.

(Oct. 28)

For the Cross the Pond Eastbound Event (Oct. 30 12z onward, all routes)... Precipitation from a low-pressure system will be present for much of the Northeast US and Appalachians. Some impacts to departure field(s): KBOS, KJFK. Areas of storms and low ceiling over Iberian Peninsula. After 18z or so, a low-pressure over the North Atlantic will begin to impact Ireland. Impacts to ETOPS adequate: LPPR, EINN. Potential impact to arrival field(s): EIDW (very late impacts). Some low CIGs possible for Finland. No significant impact expected at other event fields. The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure off Nova Scotia (Invest 94L) that has a slight chance of cyclone development during the weekend. In any case, as the system moves over to the North Atlantic, impacts associated with it will be present for ETOPS adequate: LPLA.

(Oct. 29)

For the Cross the Pond Eastbound Event (Oct. 30 12z onward, all routes)... Precipitation from a low-pressure system will be present for much of the Northeast US and Appalachians. Some impacts to departure field(s): KBOS, KJFK, CYYZ. Additionally, this system will bring gusty winds to some event fields. Areas of storms and low ceiling over Iberian Peninsula. Beginning 18z or so, a low-pressure over the North Atlantic will begin to impact Ireland. Impacts to ETOPS adequate: LPPR, EINN. Potential impact to arrival field(s): EIDW (late into the event). Some low CIGs possible for Finland later into the event. Sporadic rain possible for LFPG. No other significant impact expected. The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure off Sable Island (Invest 94L) that has a low chance of cyclone development during the weekend. In any case, as the system moves east, impacts associated with it will be present for ETOPS adequate: LPLA.

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