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  • 例題87 (88中央產經):Consider the model:
  • (1)Please to describe the Durbin-Watson test procedure.
  • (2)If the model has the presence of autocorrelation, please to describe the estimation procedures by the Cochrane-Orcutt method

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例題89 (95交大科管):研究人員分析公司的產品售價相對於市場平均售價的比例 、目標市場的人數( ,單位十萬人)與產品的銷售量( ,單位萬台)間的關係。首先考慮以下迴歸模式。

研究人員蒐集公司產品的過去資料,以下是SPSS軟體輸出的部份報表

  • (1)分別說明以下統計量告訴你有關這個例子的什麼訊息,請以本例說明之。
  • (a) Adjusted R Square, (b) F與其右欄的Sig., (c) Unstandardized B
  • (2)Durbin-Watson是Durbin-Watson test 所使用的檢定統計量。其中
  • 說明Durbin-Watson test的目的為何?
  • (3)根據Durbin-Watson的公式分別解釋小的Durbin-Watson值顯示出什麼現象?大的Durbin-Watson值顯示出什麼現象?

Model Summary

R

R Square

Adjusted R Square

Std. Error of the Estimate

Durbin-Watson

0.945403

0.893786

0.999728

1.207134

0.697662

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sum of Squares

Df

Mean Square

F

Sig.

Regression

515.006

2

257.503

176.7141

2.55E-21

Residual

61.20126

42

1.457173

 

 

Total

576.2072

44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unstandardized

B

Coefficients

Std. Error

Standardized Coefficients

Beta

t

Sig.

(Constant)

1.679607

1.499309

 

1.120254

0.268971

X1

-3.01838

1.417594

-0.10743

-2.12923

0.039141

X2

0.096615

0.005142

0.948042

18.78993

4.67E-22

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Test

Test-Statistic

Breusch-Pagan

9.3

Durbin-Watson

1.8

例題85 (清大計財):Use the following information to answer Questions (1) through (5). Multiple regression was used to explain stock returns using the following variables:

Dependent variable:

RET=annual stock returns (%)

Independent variables:

MKT=Market capitalization=Market capitalization/$1.0 million

IND=Industry quartile ranking (IND=4 is the highest ranking)

FORT=Fortune 500 firm, where {FORT=1 if the stock is that of aFortune 500 firm, FORT=0 if not a Fortune 500 stock}

The regression results are presented in the tables below

The lower and upper limits for the Durbin-Watson are 0.40 and 1.90, respectively. Based on this data and the information in the tables, there is evidence of serial correlation

(A) yes

(B) no

(C)unknow

ANOVA

df

SS

MSS

F

Significance F

Regression

3

20.5969

6.8656

12.100

0.006

Error

6

3.4031

0.5672

 

 

Total

9

24.0000

 

 

 

 

coefficient

Standard Error

t-Statistic

p-Value

Intercept

0.5220

1.2100

0.430

0.681

Market Capitalization

0.0460

0.0150

3.090

0.021

Industry Ranking

0.7102

0.2725

2.610

0.040

Fortune 500

0.9000

0.5281

1.700

0.139

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