STRATEGIES TO WIN IN EARLY VOTE STATES
Rick
Ridder
STRATEGIES TO WIN IN EARLY VOTE STATES
RBI Strategies & Research
Henri Makembe
Hamlin Street Group
@henrim
Dave Johnston
POOLHOUSE
Danielle Cendejas
The Strategy Group
@dccendejas
Edith�Jorge-Tuñón
Republican State Leadership Committee
@edith_jorge
MODERATOR
Sylvia
Allen-Hoover
United States
Postal Service
When Surveyed Voters Prefer to Receive Direct Mail
Utilize Direct Mail as a Starting Point For Engagement
Leverage the Unique Voter Relationship with Direct Mail
Some of the Types of Campaign Information Surveyed Voters Want to Receive Through Direct Mail Pieces
Communicate Comprehensive Information in Mail Pieces
TV Advertising and Early Voting
EARLY VOTING IN 2000
Source: The Center for Election Innovation & Research, The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000-2004
40% of all voting-age citizens lived in states offering at least one option for early voting.
EARLY VOTING IN 2024
Source: The Center for Election Innovation & Research, The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000-2004
Nearly 97% of all voting-age citizens live in states offering at least one option for early voting.
CA EARLY VOTER DATA
Always or Usually Early = Ballots Returned Before 8 Days Out
Always or Usually Late = Ballots Returned in the Last Week of the Election
Source: Political Data Inc.
Ballot Return Behavior | Statewide Voters | % | Combined Early/Late |
Registered Voters | 22,061,247 | | |
Always Return Early | 631,799 | 2.9% | |
Usually Return Early | 2,864,261 | 13.0% | 15.8% |
Return Early and Late | 1,379,657 | 6.3% | |
Always Return Late | 4,510,090 | 20.4% | 54.0% |
Usually Return Late | 7,398,596 | 33.5% | |
Unknown | 5,276,872 | 23.9% | |
CA STATE SENATE DISTRICT 25
Always or Usually Early = Ballots Returned Before 8 Days Out
Always or Usually Late = Ballots Returned in the Last Week of the Election
Source: Political Data Inc.
Ballot Return Behavior | Statewide Voters | % | Combined Early/Late |
Registered Voters | 621,573 | | |
Always Return Early | 20,210 | 3.3% | |
Usually Return Early | 79,326 | 12.8% | 16.0% |
Return Early and Late | 40,203 | 6.5% | |
Always Return Late | 138,193 | 22.2% | 55.0% |
Usually Return Late | 203,916 | 32.8% | |
Unknown | 139,725 | 22.5% | |
2024 PRIMARY: CA STATE SENATE DISTRICT 25
Candidate Field of 5: 4 Democrats and 1 Republican
1 Dem candidate mostly self-funded, with a war chest of $3.4 million
Our candidate raised $920,000 and had the official Dem Party endorsement
THE CHALLENGE:
Sustaining a Communications and Field Campaign for a 5-week Super Tuesday Election Day, knowing we’ll be outspent
Source: Political Data Inc.
2024 PRIMARY: CA STATE SENATE DISTRICT 25
7 Week Mail Plan | TARGETS | DROP DATE |
Intro/Comparative | All | Jan 17 |
Reproductive Rights Comparative 1 | All | Jan 26 |
Reproductive Rights Comparative 2 | All | Jan 31 |
Education 1 | All | Feb 5 |
Education Comp 2 | Ex Always Early Voters | Feb 16 |
Homelessness Comp 1 | Ex Always Early Voters | Feb 19 |
Homelessness Comp 2 | Women ex Always Early and Voted | Feb 23 |
Homelessness Comp 3 | Women ex Always Early and Voted | Feb 26 |
Endorsements | Women ex Always Early and Voted | Feb 27 |
2024 PRIMARY: CA STATE SENATE DISTRICT 25
Digital Plan | TARGETS | Flight Dates |
15s, 30s Custom List Targeted Cross Device Video, CTV, and Youtube | Foothills Area Targets | Jan 26-Mar 5 |
15s, 30s Custom List Targeted Cross Device Video, CTV, and Youtube | Lower San Gabriel Valley & Glendale Targets | Feb 9 - Mar 5 |
Meta – Video & Graphic | District Zip Codes | Jan 31 – Feb 15 |
Meta – Static Graphic | District Zip Codes | Feb 19 – Mar 5 |
Meta – GOTV Graphic | District Zip Code | Mar 2 – Mar 5 |
2024 PRIMARY: CA STATE SENATE DISTRICT 25
Field Plan | TARGETS | Dates |
Progressive Leaning, High Propensity, AND Early Voting Precincts | South Pasadena, Pasadena, Claremont | Jan 5 - Feb 4 |
Progressive Leaning, High Propensity AND Early and Late Voters | South Pasadena, Pasadena, Claremont | Feb 10 – Feb 25 |
Progressive Leaning, Mid Propensity, excluding Not Voted and Early Voters | South Pasadena, Pasadena, Claremont, Glendale | Feb 26 – Mar 5 |
2024 PRIMARY: CA STATE SENATE DISTRICT 25
Text Plan | TARGETS | Text Date |
Reproductive Rights | Women Mail Targets in Foothills | Feb 4 |
Education | Men and Women in South SGV area Mail Targets | Feb 6 |
Comparative | All Mail Targets | Feb 19 |
Spanish | Spanish Speakers Only | Feb 23 |
Targeted Audiences | Mail Targets + Mid Propensity excluded voted | Feb 26 - 29 |
GOTV X 4 | Mail Targets | Mar 2, 3, 4, 5 |
2024 PRIMARY: CA STATE SENATE DISTRICT 25
2024 PRIMARY: CA STATE SENATE DISTRICT 25
February 27 March 5 Final
76% Ballots Were Returned in Last 8 Days of Election
Strategies to Win in Early Vote State