��Wisconsin Educator Workforce Data: �Challenges and Opportunities with Quantifying Teacher Supply and Demand

10/12/23

Bradley Carl

Wisconsin Center for Education Research

UW-Madison

Wisconsin Evaluation Collaborative

Goals of This Work

• Review 20+years of public school staffing data for trends in:

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• Teacher workforce participation (stayers-movers-leavers)

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• Supply and demand for teachers

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• Developing methods for quantifying shortages (overall, by region, by license type, etc.)

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Part 1: Wisconsin Educator Workforce Participation Outcomes

Educator workforce Participation Outcomes

Proposed New Typology

Trends Over the Past 20+ Years

• Based on an annual average of 59,887 teachers in Wisconsin public schools (0.5 FTE or greater) over the past two decades:

Stayers

• 23-year average 83.9% (range ~79-87%)
• Short-term decrease immediately after Act 10

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Movers

• 23-year average 6.5% (range 4.4% - 8.7%)
• Short-term spike in Same-District Movers right after Act 10
• Gradual increase in Different-District Movers after Act 10

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Leavers

• 23-year average 8.5% (range 6.1% - 11.5%)
• Short-term spike in Retirement Leavers right after Act 10
• Starting to see rise in leavers in 2022 due to COVID?

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Role-Changers and Mover-Changers

• 23-year average
• Role-Changers: 0.4% (range 0.2% - 0.8%)
• Mover-Changers: 0.6% (range 0.4% - 0.9%)

Who are the Long-Term, Non-Retirement Leavers?

• Long-term, non-retirement leaver rate by years of experience

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Who are the Long-Term, Non-Retirement Leavers?

• Long-term, non-retirement leaver rate by race/ethnicity

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Wisconsin Teachers of Color

Part 2: Educator Supply and Demand Estimation

Implications for Statewide Teacher Labor Markets

• Goal 2: How do different labor force participation outcomes impact supply and demand for teachers?

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• Spoiler alert: Some outcomes impact teacher labor markets much more than others

Step 1: Estimating Demand

• Two outcomes are neutral in terms of their impact on statewide teacher labor markets:

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• Stayers (83.9% of all teachers in an “average” year; n=50,278) create no vacancies and thus no net demand for “new”* teachers

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*”New” here means either new (as in brand-new entrants into the state teacher labor market) OR replacement (someone already working within the state’s teacher labor market)

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Demand (continued)

• Movers (6.5% of teachers in an average year) create vacancies at either the district or school level (and obviously impact school climate), but create no net demand for new teachers (“musical chairs”)

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• Different-District Movers: vacancy created at district level (n=1452)

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• Same-District Movers: vacancy created at school level (n=2469)

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Demand (continued)

• Leavers (8.5% in average year) have different implications:

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• Leavers/Temporary: create short-term hiring need (long-term sub, License with Stipulation, etc.; n=526) but no net demand for new teachers

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• Leavers/Non-Retirement: net demand for new teachers (n=2674)

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• Leavers/Retirement: net demand for new teachers (n=1892)

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demand (continued)

• Role-Changers (0.4%) create net demand for new teachers (n=268)

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• Mover-Changers (0.6%) create net demand for new teachers (n=364)

Summary of Implications for Demand

• Four distinct labor force participation outcomes create an increase in net demand for new teachers statewide:
• Long-Term/Non-Retirement Leavers
• Long-Term/Retirement Leavers
• Role-Changers
• Mover-Changers
• Together, these categories represent 8.7% of the state’s teaching workforce each year, on average, and create net demand for 5184 new teachers.
• However…

Estimated Demand for Teachers over Time

The four categories that create net demand fluctuate (6.6% - 11.4% of the total teaching workforce, which involves a range of 4000-7000 new teachers needed in any given year)

Note: 2022 is an estimate based on previous proportions of the sub-categories of leavers.

Step 2: Supply

• Several of the most commonly-used measures of supply are indeed trending downward (although not consistently)

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• However…not all of these folks are “new” entrants into educator labor markets, and these aren’t necessarily good indicators of how many candidates there are for teaching vacancies NOW

Wisconsin EPP Enrollment and Completers

Who Applies for Teaching Positions?

• “New” entrants into educator labor markets are only one component of teacher supply (and a smaller portion than you might think?)

What Does Supply Look Like? (2015-16)

“Internal” and “External” Applicants

External Applicant Sub-Types

Proposed Supply Methodology

Step 4:

Total Estimated Supply

(n=5258)

Step 4:

Prior Public (14%)

(n=1227)

Step 4:

Private (5%)

(n=438)

Step 4:

Out of State (9%)

(n=789)

Step 3:

Novice (32%)

(n=2804)

Step 2:

New EPP Teacher Completers

(n=3299)

Step 3:

15% Other States/ Private/ Non-Teaching (n=495)

1. Number of EPP completers with a teaching license from EPP data

2. Determine which EPP completers with a teaching license are “new”

3. Decrease the count of “new” EPP completers with teaching license to account for immediate attrition (those who don’t pursue Wisconsin teaching job)

4. Increase the post-attrition count of “new” EPP completers with teaching licensure to add in other known categories of “new” teacher supply (Prior Public, Private, and Out of State)

Step 1:

EPP Completers with a Teaching License

(n=3848)

Step 2:

Current Teachers with New License

(n=549)

Proposed Supply Methodology

• Step 1: EPP Completers with Teaching License
• EPP data:
• # of teaching licenses
• # teacher licensed individuals

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• Step 2: Account for teachers already in the system getting new license
• Match EPP data to staff files to see which are already working as teachers
• Provides # new EPP completers with teaching license

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Proposed Supply Methodology

• Step 3: Account for individuals not seeking WI Public School employment (attrition)
• Going to work in other states
• Going to work for private schools
• Going to work in non-teaching profession
• Best guess is 15%
• This provides # of EPP completers with teaching licenses seeking WI public school employment

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Proposed Supply Methodology

• Step 4: Calculate other categories of supply and add together for total
• From prior steps we have Novice
• Using percentages from Goff, Carl, & Yang can estimate Prior Public, Private, and Out of State categories
• Sum of all together is the total estimated supply in a year

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Preliminary Findings

*Supply = novice, prior public, private, and out of state teachers combined.

**Demand = estimated number of vacancies created from relevant instances of mobility/attrition.

Preliminary Findings

Implications, Limitations, & Next Steps

Implications

• The teacher shortage story is more complex than just saying “we have shortages”

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• We DO have shortages…but lots of nuance: not the same kinds of “across the board” shortages for every year, every region, every type of licensure

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Implications (Continued)

• In an average year over the past 20+ years, estimated supply of new teachers (n=5258) has slightly exceeded estimated demand (n=5184)…BUT:

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• Past 8 years have had both “surplus” and “deficit” years…with the 3 most recent years being deficits (including the biggest deficit in the most recent year)

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Implications (continued)

• Demand for teachers has been much more volatile than supply, such that “surplus” years have frequently been followed by “deficit” years

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• Educator Preparation Programs (EPPs) can’t realistically adjust their “production” of teachers from year to year by large amounts

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Implications (Continued)

• Good news: increased awareness of shortages has led to an array of policy remedies (Grow Your Own programs, financial incentives, etc.)

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• Caution 1: These initiatives need to be evaluated to help guide decisions around sustainability and scale-up

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• Caution 2: Discussions around educator shortages tend to prompt mostly supply-side responses (getting more folks into the pipeline) – which risks ignoring what is arguably our bigger problem (retention)

Implications (Continued)

• Retention: Recall that non-retirement attrition has been 4.5% of teachers statewide on average over past 20+years (n=2706)

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• If this could be reduced to just 3.0% (0% is clearly not realistic), total demand for new teachers in an average year would drop by nearly 1000 (and our overall shortages* would largely disappear)

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*Shortages by certain licensure types and in some regions would likely still exist

Implications (Continued)

• What is the optimal ratio of supply to demand (how many teachers should we produce as a state)?

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• Districts may prefer a ratio above 1: higher supply = more “choosiness” in hiring and higher chance of quality candidates?

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• EPPs (and taxpayers) may prefer a ratio closer to 1: all those seeking jobs can get hired + less “exporting” of teachers?

Limitations and Caveats

Questions/Discussion