Farmers’ Food Security in the Lean Season�and Secondary Cropping��-Concepts and Evidence from Tanzania-�

Takefumi FUJIMOTO

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Research Topic: Cultivation in the short rainy season of Tanzania

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Two rainy seasons are prevalent in East Africa

・Long rainy season: Main cropping period (most farmers cultivate)

・Short rainy season: Secondary cropping period (some farmers cultivate)

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(Agricultural cycle in Tanzania)

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October-December

Long Rainy Season

Long Rainy Season

Short Rainy Season

March-May

March-May

Cultivation in short rain may enhance food security in lean season

・Farmers face hunger in lean season after harvest in long rain

・Farmers can produce additional food by cultivating in short rain

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However, previous studies have not examined economic roles of short rainy season

(Holden and Shiferaw 2004; Kassie et al. 2013; Bevis et al 2019; Bhargava et al. 2019; Dimitrova 2021)

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Farmers gain additional food in short rain

Long Rainy Season

Long Rainy Season

Lean Season

Purpose: To examine whether cultivation in short rain improves

farmers’ food consumption

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Findings: Cultivation in short rain has heterogeneous impacts:

(1) Caloric intakes increase if farmers have no off-farm income

(2) Dietary diversity increases if farmers have off-farm income

(3) Smallholders with small farm size benefit more

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This presentation:

1. Explains why farmers with/without off-farm income obtain different benefits (caloric intakes vs dietary diversity)

(2) Shows empirical results

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1. Background Information

2. Conceptual Framework

3. Estimation Methodology

4. Analytical Results

5. Discussion

6. Conclusion

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Background Information

Previous literature paid little attention to cultivation in short rain

→ Do farmers’ activities in short rainy season have low economic importance?

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(1) Cultivation in short rain may be minor activity for farmers

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(2) Farmers may plant minor crops in short rain

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(3) Farmers with off-farm income may not need to cultivate in short rain

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→ We need to check these points by descriptive statistics

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Dataset

I use Tanzania National Panel Survey (World Bank’s LSMS-ISA)

→ There are 6 different time periods from 2008 to 2020

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Six waves

are used

Dataset

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Unbalanced panel data at household level & agricultural plot level

・Households with at least one plot in Tanzanian mainland

・Outliers are removed

⇒ households with top 1% of land size & food calories are removed

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(1) Is cultivation in short rain minor activity?

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Number of farmers who:

・cultivated in long rain

・cultivated in short rain

・cultivated in both rains

in five agricultural zones

(e.g., Kilimanjaro region in Northeast zone)

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(1) Is cultivation in short rain minor activity?

More than half of farmers cultivate in short rains in Northeast & Lake zones

→ These zones have bimodal rainfall patterns

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(1) Is cultivation in short rain minor activity?

There are also some farmers cultivating in both rain in other zones

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→ Cultivation in short rain is widely observed nationwide

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Average acres of planted land for annual crops in Northeast & Lakes

(household level)

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⇒ Planted acres in short rain is about 70% of planted acres in long rain

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(1) Is cultivation in short rain minor activity?

Land in short rain

→ 70% of land in long rain

Average kilograms of harvested maize per acre in Northeast & Lakes

(plot level)

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⇒ Maize productivity is similar in two rains

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Cultivation in short rain is not a minor economic activity relative to long rain

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(1) Is cultivation in short rain minor activity?

Very similar in two rains

(2) Do farmers plant minor crops in short rain?

Top 10 crops planted as a main crop in agricultural plot in Northeast & Lakes

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・Top is maize (staple food in Tanzania)

・Nine out of ten crops are common

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⇒ Farmers do not plant minor crops in short rain

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Maize is planted as main crop in more than 40% of plots in both rains

Long rain

Short rain

(3) Do farmers with off-farm income not cultivate in short rain?

Proportion of households whose member has non-agricultural occupations

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→ Proportions are divided by quantiles of food consumption (10^th, 25^th, 50^th, 75^th,90^th)

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HH who cultivate in both rain

HH who cultivate only in long rain

(3) Do farmers with off-farm income not cultivate in short rain?

Compare two farmers:

・cultivate in both rains

・cultivate only in long rain

→ Proportions are similar overall

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⇒ Off-farm income does not seem to affect cultivation in short rain

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HH who cultivate in both rain

HH who cultivate only in long rain

Similar tendency in two cases

Summary of Background Information

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1. Cultivation in short rain is widely observed. Its economic scale is not small relative to long rain

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(2) Crop compositions are very similar in two rains

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(3) Farmers cultivate in short rain regardless of off-farm income

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⇒ Cultivation in short rain seems to play important roles in farmers’ livelihoods

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1. Background Information

2. Conceptual Framework

3. Estimation Methodology

4. Analytical Results

5. Conclusion

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Conceptual Framework

Purpose: To analyze welfare impacts of cultivation in short rain

→ We must express farmers’ behaviors in lean season

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1. Cultivation in short rain concerns food security in lean season

→ Farmers obtain additional agricultural income in lean season

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(2) Some farmers suffer from hunger in lean season

(ex) Malawian farmers eat only one meal per day in lean season (Walls et al 2023)

→ Farmers first and foremost aspire to ease hunger

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(1) Farmers satisfy the subsistence constraint

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Budget line

Can be consumed

below budget line

(1) Farmers satisfy the subsistence constraint

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Subsistence line

Must be consumed

above subsistence line

(1) Farmers satisfy the subsistence constraint

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Feasible consumption bundles under the budget & subsistence constraints

(1) Farmers satisfy the subsistence constraint

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(farmers’ free consumption is restricted)

(2) Farmers cannot satisfy subsistence constraint

Farmers have very low income

⇒ No feasible consumption bundles satisfy two constraints

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Very low income

Subsistence line

Must be consumed above subsistence line

Can be consumed below budget line

(2) Farmers cannot satisfy subsistence constraint

In this extreme poverty, farmers aspire to ease hunger

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Basic caloric needs

(2) Farmers cannot satisfy subsistence constraint

Farmers who cannot satisfy subsistence constraint first maximize caloric intakes

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Two optimization problems

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Welfare impacts of cultivation in short rain

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(1) Farmers have no off-farm income

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Low income

Subsistence line

Farmers first try to consume more calories to ease hunger

Specialization in consuming high-caloric food

(1) Farmers have no off-farm income

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Income increase

Subsistence line

New solution after income increase

(1) Farmers have no off-farm income

Farmers spend additional income on increasing caloric intakes

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Income increase

(2) Farmers with off-farm income

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income

Subsistence line

Feasible consumption bundles exist

(2) Farmers with off-farm income

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Income increase

Subsistence line

⇒ Farmers can afford to consume more variety of food

Feasible consumption bundles expand

(2) Farmers with off-farm income

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Income increase

Subsistence line

New solution after income increase

Farmers spend additional income on increasing dietary diversity

Hypotheses

Two hypotheses follow from conceptual framework:

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Hypothesis 1:

Farmers who have no off-farm income increase caloric intakes by cultivating in short rain

(∵Farmers aspire to meet basic caloric needs to ease hunger)

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Hypothesis 2:

Farmers who have off-farm income increase dietary diversity by cultivating in short rain

(∵Farmers aspire to enjoy consuming a variety of food)

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1. Background Information

2. Conceptual Framework

3. Estimation Methodology

4. Analytical Results

5. Discussion

6. Conclusion

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Estimation Methodology

Two indices of food consumption are used

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(1) Calories of food consumed per adult equivalent per day (Kcal)

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(2) Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) per week

→ Number of food types consumed per week (dietary diversity)

(12 types of food: cereals, root/tubers, vegetables, fruits, meat/poultry/offal, eggs, fish/seafood, pulses/legumes/nuts, milk and milk products, oil/fats, sugar/honey, and miscellaneous)

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Estimation Methodology

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Estimation Methodology

Estimation Methodology

Total

harvest

acre of planted land

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Estimation Methodology

Meteorological indices related to scale of short rain

1. Background Information

2. Conceptual Framework

3. Estimation Methodology

4. Analytical Results

5. Discussion

6. Conclusion

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Results

(P-values in parenthesis)

ESR model

Predicted changes in food consumption

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1. Background Information

2. Conceptual Framework

3. Estimation Methodology

4. Analytical Results

5. Discussion

6. Conclusion

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Cultivation in short rain improves farmers’ food consumption

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However, we are unsure how to promote the double-cropping

⇒ We analyze determinants of double-cropping using the plot-level dataset

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Determinant Analysis (plot level)

Determinant Analysis (plot level)

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Results in determinant analysis (HH characteristics)

・Receiving fertilizer subsidy increases probability of double-cropping

⇒ Inorganic fertilizer supplies nutrients to the soil

⇒ Farmers may not have to fallow land in short rain

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(P-values in parenthesis; APEs are displayed)

Results in determinant analysis (Plot characteristics)

Farmers are more likely to cultivate plot in both rains if:

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・plot is irrigated

⇒ efficient use of low rainfall is important in short rain

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・plot is owned by farmers

⇒ Farmers may need to freely determine cultivation

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(P-values in parenthesis; APEs are displayed)

1. Background Information

2. Conceptual Framework

3. Estimation Methodology

4. Analytical Results

5. Discussion

6. Conclusion

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Conclusion

・Cultivation in short rain is not minor or special economic activity

→ Short rain plays important roles in farmers’ livelihoods

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・Cultivation in short rain improves farmers’ welfare:

(1) Caloric intakes increase if farmers have no off-farm income

(2) Dietary diversity increases if farmers have off-farm income

(3) Smallholders with small farm size benefit more

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Conclusion

To promote cultivation in short rain, we should pay attention to

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・water management for efficient use of rainfall in short rain

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・preservation of soil nutrient to avoid soil depletion

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・land ownership

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⇒ By considering these factors, cultivation in short rain may become a policy tool to address the lack of food in lean season

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Estimation Methodology

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Used to predict El nino &

Indian Ocean Dipole events

Estimation Methodology

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