The President, the Public and Governing

Presidential Popularity

• Presidents interact with the public when they govern—outside of campaigns and elections
• Neustadt suggests this is in their interests—much presidential power comes from “public prestige”
• Much attention is therefore paid to the public popularity of the president, how we feel he is doing
• Since the end of World War II, Gallup has been asking the question: “Do you approve of the job President X is doing
• https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx

Presidential Popularity

• These figures tend to show 3 things

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• There is a clear secular decline over time for presidents—reinforces this notion of a honeymoon

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• They fluctuate with the course of events
• George H.W. Bush gets the highest ever 2/91 of 89% with Gulf War
• Only beaten by George W. Bush with 90% as reaction to 9/11 in 2001
• Both demonstrate how Americans rally around the president during times of crisis

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• Increasingly presidents face a low ceiling and high floor – perhaps as a function of polarization

Presidential Popularity

• There is a great debate on what these figures mean—Clinton was criticized for being too poll driven, George W. Bush said he did not care about them

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• Approval ratings might be important for presidential success or they may detect something else entirely

Presidential Popularity

• Critical to success

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• As Neustadt suggested they are translated into success in Congress, there is research to show that popular presidents are able to get a greater proportion of their agenda turned into law

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Presidential Support Scores

Presidential Popularity

• Others have demonstrated that presidential approval ratings are tied to the president’s electoral fortunes and those of partisan colleagues further down the ballot

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• 2006, Bush’s approval low, the Republicans were heavily defeated in congressional midterms
• 2010, Obama’s approval low, the Democrats were heavily defeated in congressional midterms
• 2014, same thing happened to Obama and the Democrats
• 2018, Trump’s approval rating suggested Republicans lose quite a few seats – lost House
• 2020, Trump’s low approval ratings—particularly handling of coronavirus pandemic—red flag
• 2022, Biden’s low approval didn’t seem to matter so much—Democrats lose only a few seats (and control though) in House, gained one in Senate
• 2026, Trump around 37-39%

Presidential Popularity

• A different argument is that presidents should not obsess about them

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• The approval ratings are really an assessment of other things, the economy, nationalism (the president benefits as people rally around national symbols). As such the president cannot do a great deal about them
• Economy is affected by Congress, Fed, other countries, consumers, corporations etc
• As the public polarizes, judge presidents on their party affiliation
• High approval ratings during divided government might be a hindrance—congressional leadership will work to weaken the president by blocking his agenda

Presidential Communication

• Of course, presidents work hard to influence the way the public feels about them
• Over time they have been “going public”—phrase used by Samuel Kernell
• There are a variety of ways to do this. Formal:
• Inaugural address
• Acceptance of party’s nomination at national convention and debates during the reelection campaign
• State of the Union—generally recommend a laundry list of legislative items
• Other addresses to joint session of Congress—9/11 response by Bush, 9/20/01; health care reform by Obama 9/9/09
• Technically president’s first State of the Union is one of these
• Farewell address, really for posterity

Presidential Communication

• Less formal
• Sometimes the White House will request time from media, especially tv networks, because the president wants to make an address
• Truman the first to do this 1947, Nixon to resign in 1974, Reagan on Challenger explosion 1986, Clinton 8/98 when had testified to Grand Jury, 9/11/01 Bush, Bush famous “mission accomplished” 5/1/03 on Iraq, Bush just after Katrina from N.O., Obama 5/1/12 on anniversary of Bin laden killed; Trump very few—March in early days of epidemic; Biden 8/31/21, US withdrawal Afghanistan; 9/1/22, “democracy” in Philadelphia
• Weekly Saturday radio address
• Begun by Reagan in 1982; Obama did it on YouTube and Facebook Live; Trump & Biden sporadically, now effectively discontinued
• President sometimes holds impromptu, sometimes part of another event—e.g. visit by foreign dignitary
• Trump does this a lot—White House grounds, on Air Force 1 etc

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Presidential Communication

• President will often travel the country giving speeches talking with reporters from different media outlets
• President also has surrogates—Cabinet secretaries, White House aides and press office
• Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt until 8/26—currently vacant
• Regular briefings held much less frequently under Trump I, a lot more under Trump II
• Obama had Robert Gibbs, NCSU PS grad
• Today presidents can communicate directly on an hourly basis with Americans—without having to go through the media filter
• Social media—particularly prevalent in Trump’s use of Twitter and now his own Truth Social

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Presidential Psychology

• Just a quick look at a topic that interests presidential scholars—do it here because doesn’t fit well elsewhere

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• Presidential psychology, i.e. how presidents’ personalities affect the way they govern

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• Should not overemphasize, presidents constrained by institutions, rules, political context

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• Moreover, remember a personality is something you are really born with, I think some scholars look at presidential behavior in the White House and assume that’s the way they’ve always been—instead of looking into their past

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Presidential Psychology

• Use, James David Barber’s famous typology from “The Presidential Character” here

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• He sees two different dimensions
• Energy—Active or Passive, how much they put into their Presidency
• Affect—Positive or Negative, how much they enjoy being president

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• Creates four different categories

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Presidential Psychology

• Active-Positives are presidents that are positively motivated individuals who enjoy their job and seek results.
• Active-Negatives are motivated primarily by the goals of getting and keeping power, but receive little emotional benefit from their job.
• Passive-Positives seek power as a way to obtain the love and admiration of the others. They are less interested in absolute power or policy ends, but enjoy the job as long as they are popular.
• Passive-Negatives seek the office out of civic duty, but are relatively unhappy in doing the job.

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Presidential Psychology

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