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AGRICULTURAL PERSPECTIVE

Jean Brokish, Midwest Deputy Director

American Farmland Trust

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Saving the land that sustains us

PROTECTING FARMLAND

PROMOTING SOUND FARMING PRACTICES

KEEPING FARMERS ON THE LAND

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Field Scale

Irrigation timing & rates
Planting, pruning, spraying, fertilizer, livestock rotations
Tile water management
Livestock comfort
Farm labor

Daily / Weekly

Most of this data is available

Can climate data…

Better identify (and prevent) risks to farm workers?

I’ve organized my thoughts into three different special / temporal scales. The first is a field scale, which coincides with a daily or weekly timeframe… decisions made by individual farmers based on field conditions

Some considerations and decisions happening at this level include

irrigation timing and rates ;
when to plant, prune, spray, fertilize, move livestock
tile water management – will explain a bit
Livestock comfort – too hot or cold to be in the elements
Farm labor – too hot or too cold to be in the elements –

NOTE: These data are there but not getting into the hands of farmers

And of this list, it feels like a super important one is farm labor -- There are standards for how farm workers should wash their hands, but to my knowledge there are no standards to determine when it is unsafe to be in the field.

My first question is to ask whether and how climate data can better identify and prevent risks to farmworkers?

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Tile Water Mngt

Image: Joy Mazure, Missourian

Makes the Corn Belt farmable

----

Leaks nutrients

Drought impacts

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Water Control Structure

Image: Purdue Extension

Post-harvest Pre-plant Growing Season

Can climate data…

Help develop “smart” water control structures?

Options exist to better manage tile water by installing water control structures

Image from Purdue University shows how a control structure can be used throughout the year

A: The outlet is raised after harvest to reduce nitrate delivery to ditches and streams in the off season.�B: The outlet is lowered a few weeks before planting (and again before harvest) to allow the field to drain more fully before machinery is operated.

PAUSE HERE – this is what most tiled fields look like --- water table is way down there�C: The outlet is raised after planting and spring operations to capture post planting precipitation and increases water storage for crops during the summer. You could move these up and down based on crop growth stage / root depth. You could move it up and down based on weather conditions / soil moisture. �

Farmers aren’t using this technology --- manual labor of changing gates … some are controlled remotely but the other complicating factor is the need to combine soil moisture and crop growth and precipitation …

> what if we could combine climate data like temp and precip with field data soil moisture, crop stage and make a really smart water control structure

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Farm/County Scale

Planting & harvest windows

Crop rotations

Drought frequency & intensity
Productivity

Grain marketing
Feedstocks / replacement costs

Dust storms

8 killed in Illinois in 2023
Tillage + moisture + wind

Weekly / Yearly

Background Photo: Alena Mozhjer

Can climate data…

Be used to establish warning system for dust generation?

Next, let’s look at the farm / county scale (this could include a handful of farms or 100,000 acres) … these are also decisions made across a year

field operations - planting and harvesting windows (more on that in a minutes)
Also affects timing of switching from one crop to another (more on that too)
droughts arising more quickly and becoming more intense than in the past;
How will climate affect productivity – yield and grain marketing implications… also forage productivity such that pasture-raised livestock producers need to provide supplemental feed/hay (and hay prices will go up)?
potential for dust storms, soil losses, community impacts (e.g., traffic, health, etc.)—when are conditions right for dust storms to be likely (tillage timing + weather conditions),

> We have guidelines on “no-spray” conditions – would climate data be used to identify “no-till” conditions and / or be used to establish advanced dust warnings

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Operational Windows

Images: MyPrairieLife, TractorbyNet

Background Photo: Alena Mozhjer

Stuck in the mud!

Can climate data…

Help identify and communicate “No Plow” days

Decreased number of days �suitable for spring field operations

April & May Precipitation, 1981 – 2019

Number of dry days has decreased by 5
Number of 2” rainfalls has doubled

(E. Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions)

Dig into field operations in spring & fall (e.g., heavy rains make it hard to get out in fields to plant and harvest); … planting deadlines for crop insurance, yield implications on hybrid variety selection

Impacts to farmers include getting expensive equipment stuck in the mud … also compaction by driving on soils that are too wet

>farmers want to avoid this

USDA-NASS Days Suitable for Fieldwork:

A 'suitable' day is one where weather and field conditions allowed producers to work in fields a major portion of that day.

Google tractor stuck in mud – comical and frightening!

It is not uncommon for farmers to push the envelop – farms are getting bigger, more acres to cover, tractors are bigger > bring in bigger tractors to rescue the stuck tractor

- While burying a tractor to this depth is uncommon, it is not uncommon to see 6-10” ruts in a field

What data would be helpful here???

--when is it too wet to plant (for people who use conventional tillage and no cover crops), like “no spray” days

--when is it too wet to plant (for people who use no till and cover crops)

Spring outlook for tillage based on past and future weather patterns + combine with soil moisture readings!

(equate to the NH3 maps)

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Cover Crops

Background Photo: Alena Mozhjer

Image: Penn State Extension

Terminate early =

Conserve spring moisture // limited biomass for summer

Terminate late =

Suck up excess moisture // lots of biomass thru summer

ABRUPT SWINGS

??

Can climate data…

Help farmers find success with cover crops?

I mentioned the challenges of moving through crop rotations -- One of the most promising tools to reduce erosion, increase carbon reserves in the soil and improve nutrient retention and cycling is cover crops.

For those unfamiliar with this term – cover crops are grown in between cash crops – they are planted in the fall and terminated in the spring before (or just after) you plant your cash crop.

Farmers in Il and many midwestern states may be using cereal rye as a cover crop – planted after the corn is harvest in the fall and then terminated in the spring to allow soybeans to grow in the field. Using cover crops has a lot of environmental benefits, but it requires additional management, especially in the spring because when you terminate your cover crop can have significant impacts on soil moisture.

This photo from Penn State shows a field trial on timing of cover crop termination

On left is cereal rye that was terminated early in the season and on the right is cereal rye left to grow and will be planted green – meaning they will plant soybeans into this live, standing field.

Each method has pros / cons (read boxes)

But how do we handle wild swings – 2023 started wet … abruptly became very dry.

Can climate data help farmers succeed?

spring precip outlook – likely to be wet spring and use cover crops as a sponge? Or likely to be a dry spring and terminate cover crops so they don’t sponge up moisture? Imagine: “Research agronomists are recommending central IL farmers terminate their cover crops sooner rather than later given a dry outlook” type of news story

Individaul farmer succeeds … but also other farmers are open to adopting them.

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Regional Scale

3-50 yrs

Yield resiliency
Variety and breed selection

Existing markets and infrastructure?

Insect and disease pressures
Water availability for irrigation
Transportation / Market Access

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Yield Resiliency

Source: USDA ERS

Can climate data…

Help evaluate premium payment rates?

Digging into yield resiliency

Many farmers (especially commodity farmers) purchase crop insurance to guarantee income for their farm. Coverage and premiums are tiered and based on production targets (yield) and price.

Farmers buy a policy for each acre … if environmental factors prevent yield, they get an indemnity payment.

Indemnity claims are going up! Chart…

Great irony that both drought and excess moisture have increased –

many factors can influence the magnitude of FCIP indemnified losses—including changes in producers’ demand for crop insurance, prevalence of extreme weather events, and changes in crop values over time. Since 2000, annual indemnity payments increased on average by 19.6 percent per year. Although a year-to-year variation exists due to prevailing weather conditions, drought consistently was a leading cause of indemnified losses. Since 2000, 43.7 percent of total indemnity payments were for losses attributed to drought or high temperature. Excess moisture is also frequently responsible for large indemnities—25.6 percent of total indemnity payments since 2000.

Bottom line for this – crop insurance is becoming more costly for tax payers --- by and large the premium paid by farmers hasn’t changed .

about homeowners insurance going up in response to climate disasters… does crop insurance premiums need to be adjusted?

> What role can climate data play in resetting crop insurance premiums … AND What if cost change was linked to resilient practices

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Variety Selection

Can climate data…

Guide decisions for crop and variety selection?

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Rivers and barges

Source: Hoosier Ag Today

Can climate data…

Provide insights / predictions for grain transportation?

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Additional Considerations

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Jean Brokish

Midwest Deputy Director

jbrokish@farmland.org

jean-brokish

217-281-1822

Let’s Connect

With gratitude to �Dr. Bonnie McGill