STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION & LABOUR
A presentation at APU for the advanced UG & also the PG beginners
Saumya Chakrabarti, Shouvik Chakraborty & Zico Dasgupta
With support from – Himadrija Chakraborty & Rahul Pal
Visva-Bharati, Santiniketan, India
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SECTION 1�DEVELOPMENT & STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
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1 Standard growth models have not considered the process of structural transformation inducing growth via relocation of labour from low to high productivity sector: Harrod-Domar 1939-1946, Solow 1956, Kaldor 1957
SECTION 2�STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION: MAINSTREAM APPROACH (1 OF 3)
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In the process,
TS contracts & eventually becomes a
Capitalistic MS
Capital Accumulation
Capitalistic Growth
Increase in PCI
Development2
Labour & resource mobilisation from the Non-capitalistic Traditional Sector (TS)
Capitalistic Modern Sector (MS) expansion
2 As conceptualized by the Traditional Development Economics discourses (1930s-80s)
Trickle down effect
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Non-capitalistic Traditional Sector
Allocation & distribution mechanism: SHARING
Lack of incentive for workers & entrepreneurs
Lack of productivity of labour
&
Lack of innovation & technological progression & lack of investment
Low level of output & income
Competitive Capitalism
Competition drives accumulation
Accumulation process operates in the market
Allocation & distribution rule: MARGINALISM (Market) (distribution as per marginal contribution)
participation as per ability & distribution as per average
Capitalistic Modern Sector
Competition drives investment, technology & innovation, inducing productivity, creating surplus that is reinvested & we have accumulation.
STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION: MAINSTREAM APPROACH (2 OF 3)
DEVELOPMENT & STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION (3 OF 3)
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Allocation & Distribution principle: SHARING
(Community)
Allocation & Distribution principle: MARGINALISM (Market)
Capitalistic
Modern Sector (MS)
Labour
Resources
Via Market
Becomes Capitalistic MS
Non-capitalistic Traditional Sector (TS)
Structural
Transformation
→ Industrial expansion not only enlarges the modern part of the economy but also transforms the traditional sector.
Allocation & Distribution principle: MARGINALISM
LEWIS-RANIS-FEI (LRF) FRAMEWORK
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Industrial Labour
Wage in
Industrial unit
Wi
A a b
K1
K2
MPN1
MPN2
MPN3
Industrial labour
Average agricultural
surplus
A a b
Traditional Sector
MPN = 0
0 < MPN ≤ APN
MPN > APN
Surplus labour (MPN=0) migrates: TS to MS → No fall in output/SS of ‘food’ from TS to MS → No change in pf → No change in per capita food consumption in MS → No change in W (This process will continue for Aa).
As migration continues → In TS, MPN > 0 but MPN ≤ APN → Supply of food ↓ → pf ↑ (commodification of food) but no change in afo yet → Wi ↑ & ∏ ↓ : First turning point (K1) of Lewis (ab zone)
If migration continues beyond b → In TS, MPN > APN → Distribution principle changes from sharing to marginalism in TS (commodification of labour in TS) → (af & pf)↑↑ → W↑↑ & ∏↓↓ → Second Turning point (K2)
POLICY PRESCRIPTION OF LRF MODEL
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As industrial wage starts rising, MS experiences Ricardian Profit squeeze → Wage rises & profit share reduces → Unbridled flow of resources is constrained (SS side constraint) → restricted industrialisation due to profit & hence investment squeezes.....
So, what is the way to remove these supply-side constraints?
(a) Technological improvement in TS, which will relax the resource constraint by increasing productivity and, at the same time, create surplus labour in TS (relaxing labour shortage for MS); i.e. Green Revolution.
(b) International labour migration
Industrial Labour
Wage in
Industrial unit
Wi
A a b
K1
K2
MPN1
MPN2
MPN3
LIMITATIONS OF LRF MODEL
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3 “The process … that clears the way for the capitalist system, can be none other than the process which takes away from the labourer the possession of his means of production; a process that transforms, on the one hand, the social means of subsistence & of production into capital, on the other, the immediate producers into wage labourers.” (Marx, 1867, Chap 26, pp. 507–508) .
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SECTION 3
STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION: STRUCTURALIST DISCOURSE (FOCUS: KALECKI, 1955)
BACKWARD CAPITALISM: STRUCTURALIST TWO DEPARTMENT MODEL (A SHORT-RUN CLOSED-ECONOMY BASE MODEL)
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DEPARTMENT-I: | DEPARTMENT-II: |
BACKWARD CAPITALISM: STRUCTURALIST TWO DEPARTMENT MODEL (A SHORT-RUN CLOSED-ECONOMY BASE MODEL)
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DEPARTMENT-I: | DEPARTMENT-II: |
Advanced capitalistic sector with excess capacity & UN:
=> Demand-determined output Y
Marketable output: F = [Ao – A(pf/pi) – Bo] = F(pf/pi); where:
A: Total food supply; A = Ao , as resource & structural constraints.
A(pf/pi): Asset holding by L-class; following regressive expectation: A/ < 0.
Bo: Given subsistence consumption of food for the T-class.
All these => marketable output, F = F(pf/pi); with F/ > 0.
=> Demand-determined Flex-Price pf
BACKWARD CAPITALISM: STRUCTURALIST TWO DEPARTMENT MODEL (A SHORT-RUN CLOSED-ECONOMY BASE MODEL)
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DEPARTMENT-I: | DEPARTMENT-II: |
Producing:
Producing:
STRUCTURALIST TWO DEPARTMENT MODEL�CIRCULAR FLOW OF INCOME (ALL IN INDUSTRIAL UNIT)
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Reserve army of labour
W-class expenditure on industrial output Cwi
L-class expenditure on conspicuous consumption goods from Dept I (food & non-food) (Cli)
L-class saves a major part
(0 << sl < 1)
Total produce (food) in Dept II by T-class (direct producer)
Cc
I
T-class does not save
st = 0
Landlord (L) class’s marketable amount of food (acquired from T-class)
T- class consumption of non-food (acquired via exchange of own food o/t with Dept I)
Self-consumption of food by T-class
(Bo)
W-class saves a small part of their income
0 < sw <<1
Dept I
Dept II
C-class expenditure is autonomously set through loan finance by virtue of ownership over K
C-class saves fully
sc = 1
Residual produce for T-class after transferring rent to L-class
Asset holding of L-class A(pf/pi)
Total marketable amount of food for the W-class F(pf/pi)
Leakage from the circular flow
Leakage from the circular flow
Vertically integrated capitalistic industry
Pre-capitalistic agriculture
G -“Domestic export”
Expenditure of W-class on food from T-class & L-class (Dept II) (Cwf)
T-class expenditure on mass consumption good & agricultural inputs from Dept I (Cti)
DEMAND-DETERMINED OUTPUT IN DEPT-1, INDUSTRY
Demand determined output Y + Cost determined fix-price pi0
Y = W-class spending on Y + C-class spending on Y + L-class spending on Y + T-class spending on Y (All measured in industrial unit)
= Cwi + (Cc + I) + Cli + Eti = {(1 – sw).W – Cwf} + (Cc + I) + Ef; here: [sw = savings propensity of W-class; Cwi = {(1 – sw).W – Cwf} & (Cli + Eti) = Ef].
= (1 – sw).W + (Cc + I) – (Cwf – Ef) = (1 – sw).W + (Cc + I) – (R – Ef); here: [R = Real income of L & T classes from the marketed food = Real expenditure of W-class on food].
= (1 – sw).W + (Cc + I) – SL = [{(1 – sw).a.Y} + (Cc + I) – {(sl.pf.F(pf/pi))/pi0}]; here: a = W/Y; & (R – Ef) = SL = [{sl . pf . F(pf/pi)} / pi0} = L-class savings = ‘Import-surplus’ of industry vis-a-vis agriculture = Leakage of purchasing power from circular flow of income = Demand leakage from Dept I.
Continued...........
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DEMAND-DETERMINED OUTPUT IN DEPT-1, INDUSTRY
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Next, {pf . F(pf/pi) / pi0} = R = W-class expenditure on marketed food (as T-class food consumption already netted out)
= pf X per capita food-demand of W-class (af) X employment for W-class (N)
= pf . af(wm0/pi0,wm0/pf) . N = pf . af(pf) . Y; as N/Y is constant under CRS (& is equal to 1, say) due to excess capacity & unemployment; with, af′(pf) < 0 & price-elasticity of af < 1; i.e. [af = d – (e.pf)], with e < 1.
Hence, Y = [{a . (1 – sw) . Y} + (Cc + I) – {(sl . pf . F(pf/pi)) / pi0}]
= [{a . (1 – sw) . Y} + (Cc + I) – {(sl . pf . af(pf) . Y) / pi0}]; with, af′(pf) < 0 & price-elasticity of af < 1.
Therefore, Y* = (Cc + I) / [1 – {a . (1 – sw)} + {(sl . pf . af(pf)) / pi0}]
Finally, Y* = (Cc0+I0) / [1 – {a.(1-sw)} + {(sl . pf . af(pf)) / pi0}], as C-class has the power to set Cc & I (loan-financed, by virtue of ownership over K).
Hence, Y* = Y (pf); with Y’ < 0, as [price-elasticity of af] < 1.
ROLE OF SUPPLY CONSTRAINT IN STRUCTURALIST MODEL
Thus, Y = Y(pf), with Y’<0 as [elasticity of per capita food-demand of W-class] < 1.
Further, N = N(pf), with N’<0 as N=Y (CRS).
Next, aggregate food-demand from industry:
Df = af (pf) . N(pf) = Df(pf), with Df’<0
(downward sloping aggregate food-demand curve).
On the other hand, F(pf/pi) is an upward sloping supply curve as F/ > 0.
Hence, food-market equilibrium condition is:
F(pf/pi) = D(pf); this determines pf* which, in turn, determines N* = Y*(pf*) & af*(pf*).
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Let’s assume: (G/I/CC)↑ → ADi↑ → Y↑ → N↑ → Df↑ (cet-par) → ͞F supply inelastic → pf↑ → (wm0 / pf)↓ → But, [{pf.F(pf/pi)}/pi0]↑ → Redistribution of purchasing power from W-class to L-class & T-class (from low savings propensity class to high savings propensity class, as W-class saves much less than L-class) → Leakage of purchasing power from circular flow → Full multiplier effect is not realised by Dept I [as the initial demand boost {(G/I/CC)↑ + multiplier effect} is not fully realised due to this leakage from circular flow] → Supply constraint induced demand problem for Department I
=> Constrained industrialisation (due to : agricultural supply-constraint, redistribution of purchasing power & differential savings propensities).
E*
0 F0 Df, F
pf*
Df0
Df1
E’
pf1
pf
SUPPLY CONSTRAINT LED REDISTRIBUTION & LEAKAGE� IN STRUCTURALIST MODEL: CLASS CONFLICT
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Who gains & Who loses
As the industry expands, the C-class benefits from increased output & profit (although not fully, because of the depressed multiplier effect), while the L-class & T-class gain unequivocally through higher revenue due to a rise in food price (as explained earlier). The W-class benefits from increased employment, but loses real purchasing power as food price rises while their money wages remain fixed, reducing their real income & hence standard of living.
Continued...........
SUPPLY CONSTRAINT LED REDISTRIBUTION & LEAKAGE� IN STRUCTURALIST MODEL: CLASS CONFLICT & MITIGATION
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“(T)he rise in investment may create a strong pressure on the available supplies of food while at the same time it is possible to increase the production of industrial ….. goods in line with demand….
….. (I)n some instances the rigidity of the supply of food may lead to the under-utilization of productive facilities in non-food …. goods….
This will not be the case if the peasants profit from the increases in food prices, because then they buy more industrial ….. goods out of higher incomes….
However, if the benefits of higher food prices accrue to landlords ......, then the reduction in real wages due to the increase in food prices will not have as a counterpart the increased demand for (industrial) …… goods on the part of the countryside; for increased profits will not be spent at all or will be spent on luxuries….. In this case the high demand generated by a rapid development involving large-scale investment will not create a market for industrial ….. goods.
As is clearly seen from the above, two factors will be involved here: (a) the inelastic supply of food leading to a fall in real wages, (b) the benefit of food price increases accruing not to small proprietors but to capitalists” ……
……. Thus it is clear from the above that the expansion of food production, paralleling the industrial development, is of paramount importance for avoiding inflationary pressures. Investment in industry, transportation, public utilities & even long-run development projects in agriculture should be accompanied by measures which would expand agricultural production in the short period. These measures range from land reform & cheap bank credit for peasants to improvements in the method of cultivation, small-scale irrigation, & cheap fertilizers.
(Kalecki, 1955, page 7-8). …………. Continued……..
SECTION 4:� STRUCTURALIST POLICY PRESCRIPTION
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Land reforms → Land redistribution from L-class to T-class → ↓ sectoral (Dept II) savings propensity, as sl > st = 0 →
Y* = (Cc0+I0) / [1 – a(1-sw) + {sl.pf.af(pf)}/pi0] → BECOMES → Y* = [(Cc0+I0) / 1–a(1-sw)]; as petty T-class does not save. Hence, Y is a function of: only … Cc, I, a, sw , & not of pf →
problem of leakage of purchasing power from the circular flow is mitigated → the induced demand problem for industry is mitigated.
PLUS…….
Land reforms → ↑ Incentive to work, innovate & invest for tenants (due to access to land & improved institutional, technical & infrastructural facilities) → ↑ Productivity → ↑ Output in agriculture → Supply-constraint for industry gets relaxed → Industrialisation boosted.
COMPARING THE LRF & KALECKIAN MODELS OF DEVELOPMENT
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Lewis-Ranis-Fei:
Kalecki:
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Now, let us look into the reality of our country…
FRACTURED STRUCTURE OF INDIAN WORKFORCE
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Table 1 : Total employment (million) & workforce share (%) in different sectors in India over time | |||||||||
Year | Agriculture | Informal Sector | Organized manufacturing sector (formal & informal employment) | Construction (formal as well as informal, including MGNREGP) | Others (mostly organized service sector) | ||||
Total | Rural Self-employment | Rural Establishment using hired labour | Urban Self-employment | Urban Establishment using hired labour | |||||
1999-2000 | 242.72 | 77.11 | 32.96 | 5.33 | 21.43 | 17.40 | 8.17 | 17.39 | 52.51 |
High G | (61) | (19.38) | (8.28) | (1.34) | (5.38) | (4.37) | (2.05) | (4.37) | (13.20) |
2010-11 | 224.30 | 107.98 | 41.70 | 11.48 | 28.06 | 26.73 | 12.69 | 42.42 | 48.01 |
| (51.52) | (24.80) | (9.58) | (2.64) | (6.45) | (6.14) | (2.92) | (9.74) | (11.03) |
2015-16 | 205.46 | 111.27 | 38.13 | 11.74 | 30.96 | 30.45 | 14.30 | 47.94 | 70.86 |
| (45.67) | (24.74) | (8.48) | (2.61) | (6.88) | (6.77) | (3.18) | (10.66) | (15.75) |
Source: Kundu et al. (2021) | |||||||||
In the high growth period for India, data shows that reduction in agricultural employment is not getting replenished by the organized sectors
Instead, people exiting agriculture are entering into the informal sector (including informal construction) either as self-employed or in establishments
FRACTURED STRUCTURE OF INDIAN ECONOMY
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Table 2: Gross value added per worker (in Rs.) in 2017-18 prices | |||||||||
Year | Agriculture | Informal Rural Self-employed | Informal Rural Establishment using Hired Labour | Informal Urban Self-employed | Informal Urban Establishment using Hired Labour | Informal Sector | Organized manufac. sector | Construction (formal as well as informal employment) | Others (mainly organized service sector) |
1999-2000 | 56410 | 38073 | 70898 | 76294 | 135110 | 57457 | 532939 | 187385 | 331618 |
2010-11 | 83309 | 46941 | 100565 | 88509 | 160201 | 72150 | 812823 | 235342 | 949526 |
2015-16 | 115398 | 59029 | 121364 | 103622 | 179592 | 87538 | 847053 | 221834 | 1036524 |
Source: Kundu et al. (2021) | |||||||||
People are not gaining much in terms of earnings via this relocation from agriculture to informal sector!!
Data reveals the presence of heterogeneity/dualism (within the informal sector) between self-employed & establishments in terms of GVA per worker.
1.A. HARRIS-TODARO-FIELDS
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Demand-driven pulled migration based on wage differential between MS & TS → But MS unable to absorb the migrated labour fully → Creates unemployment who wait to be absorbed in MS in future (waiting hall hypothesis) → however, eventually they become informal sector workers/entrepreneur & unemployed.
1.B. HARVEY- SANYAL
For unhindered supply of resources for MS, labour & means of labour in TS have to be dissociated → Accumulation by Dispossession (ABD) → Supply-driven pushed migration for survival → Creates a wasteland of excluded/’surplus’ mass of people (a space outside the circuit of capital, not even able to enter into the waiting hall.
INDIAN INFORMAL SECTOR: RECEIVED POSITIONS - 1
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Modern Sector
Unemployed mass
Informal Sector
“Wasteland”
(surplus population; out of the circuit of capital)
Traditional Sector
Pushed Migration via the process of ABD
Waiting hall of Harris-Todaro-Fields model
Wasteland/need economy of Harvey-Sanyal discourse
INDIAN INFORMAL SECTOR: RECEIVED POSITIONS – 1A+1B
COMBINING H-T& ABD [PULL+PUSH]
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Despite MS expansion there is reproduction of the fractured structure of the economy. Therefore, it is crucial to move beyond the conventional industrialization policies & look for an alternative development strategy.
Considering this context, what would constitute a comprehensive, labour-focused policy?
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Alternative Path of Development: product-specific & app-based cluster formations (Chakrabarti et al., 2020, Kundu et al., 2021) → strengthen the backward & forward production linkages & also create dynamic production processes by sharing tangible-intangible resources (despite private ownership) & tapping larger national/global markets (scale economies, & synergy effect) → foster competitiveness, & collective efficiency (Abid Hussain expert committee1997; Schmitz 1999; Sanyal 2011; Das 2017; Chakrabarti et al. 2020; Nagraj 2021).
Some of the successful clusters in the Global south:
3 see: Schmitz (1999)
4 see: Banerjee & Munshi (2004)
CLUSTER BASED DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMAL SECTOR
HOW TO ENGENDER CLUSTER BASED DEVELOPMENT??
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Case Study 1: Tantipara, West Bengal
Instances of labour sharing & space sharing in Handloom cluster
Case Study 2:
Dariyapur, West Bengal
Instances of labour sharing & infrastructure sharing in Dokra (handicraft) cluster
REFERENCES
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THANK YOU
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