Building Momentum in the Energy Transition
What WE can do!
Climate Councillor
Greg Bourne
Three Pertinent Ongoing Conversations
Pertinent to both the Global and Australian energy debate
Perspective – Geopolitical
Decades Ahead
A Political Cycle
Quarterly and Annual Report?
Social Cohesion
Environment and Climate
Economic development
Security
Investment Horizon
Perspective – Temporal
Three Pertinent Ongoing Conversations
Pertinent to both the Global and Australian energy debate
Paris Heading to 1.8
If we’re lucky 2.7
Current Geopolitics heading here 3.6
Fossil Fuel Development 4.4
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
2100
2020
2050
1750
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways
Envisage Risk – Take Action
We can already see a bleak future if we head towards 4OC warming and are trying to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5 to 2OC
Temp at 2100 relative to 1986–2005
4.8o C
2.6o C
3.1o C
1.4o C
2.6o C
1.7o C
1.1o C
0.3o C
Accepted futures window
Options window
Three Pertinent Ongoing Conversations
Pertinent to both the Global and Australian energy debate
We need to understand history!
We need to understand history!
Looking through the options window at 2030 to the “Accepted Futures Window” in 2050, colours our investment choices.
The Long History of Oil Prices
We need to understand history!
Looking through the options window at 2030 to the “Accepted Futures Window” in 2050, colours our investment choices.
The Long History of Oil Prices
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power – Daniel Yergin
We need to understand history!
Great Games – The Prize – Lines on Maps
Russian Sphere of Influence
ere of Influence
British Sphere of Influence
Russian Empire
Russian Empire
Ottoman Empire
Iran in 1907 Showing the Russian and British Spheres of Influence
We need to understand history!
Russian Sphere of Influence
ere of Influence
British Sphere of Influence
Russian Empire
Russian Empire
Ottoman Empire
May 26th 1908
First oil discovered at Masjid-i-Suleiman
We need to understand history!
Russian Sphere of Influence
ere of Influence
British Sphere of Influence
Russian Empire
Russian Empire
Ottoman Empire
Circa 1947/8
And approximate positions of today’s oilfields
We need to understand history!
Three Pertinent Ongoing Conversations
Global Insecurity of Energy Supply
Three Pertinent Ongoing Conversations
Pertinent to both the Global and Australian energy debate
Global Primary Energy Production by Source
14%
We are always in transition!
2023 in terawatt-hours
Industrial Revolution Coal
Mass Transportation Oil
Electrification Gas Hydro and Nuclear
The rise of Renewables
Installed Solar Energy Capacity
Installed Capacity GW
Incumbents cannot countenance change!
Installed Solar Energy Capacity
Embrace the future – don’t hug the past!
Delivering 4,264 TWh
Installed Solar Energy Capacity
Delivering 4,264 TWh
Embrace the future – don’t hug the past!
How quickly things can change!
Embrace the future – don’t hug the past!
44%
Renewables
Three Pertinent Ongoing Conversations
Pertinent to both the Global and Australian energy debate
What WE can do!
Federal Government
Local Government
States Government
WE
What WE can do!
Federal Government
Local Government
States Government
WE
Vote
Vote
Vote
What WE can do!
Federal Government
Local Government
States Government
WE
Vote
Vote
Vote
For candidates with policies to build momentum in the Energy Transition resilient to geo-political shocks
For candidates with policies to build resilience in our social and physical infrastructure, resilient to climate shocks
SEIZE THE DECADE: How we empower Australian communities and cut climate pollution 75% by 2030
https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/seize-the-decade/
https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Next-Stop-Suburbia.pdf
Next Stop Suburbia: Mode Shift, Shared and Active Transport
EV V2G?
Insulation drafts trees shading?
Maintain always!
Battery?
Induction stove?
eBike?
Heat Pump
Hot water?
Solar panels?
What can I do? – my actions
What do I need to do and can afford? Is it aesthetic? Does it fit with family needs? Who do I talk to? Plan ahead!
Reverse cycle Aircon?
Get off gas
Electrify
Communicate
Three Pertinent Ongoing Conversations
Pertinent to both the Global and Australian energy debate
Build Resilience
Build resilience by accelerating the energy transition in all sectors of the economy resilient to the inevitable future geopolitical shocks.
Build resilience in our social and physical infrastructure, resilient to the inevitable future climate driven shocks.
Building Momentum in the Energy Transition
What WE can do!
Climate Councillor
Greg Bourne
Thank You and Qs