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AEP 50 Uncertainty Initiative

2024 TRB Annual Meeting - Meeting

Jan 8 10:15-11:15

https://www.trbtravelforecasting.org/uncertainty

Link to Slides

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Emergency Procedures for Marriott Marquis

In an emergency:

Step 1: Call 911

Step 2: In the Marriott Marquis, call Security at 202-824-9667, or dial 59677 on the nearest house phone.

We recommend you add this number to your contact list now, so you won't need to look for it later.

Have an exit plan. Please take a moment to familiarize yourself with the route to the nearest exit from this room.

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If an alarm sounds, please end your event immediately and evacuate the building. The escalators located in the center of each floor can be used to access the main lobby and exits. Additional stairs are located behind the elevators at each end of the main hallway on each level.

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In case of evacuation, attendees should gather on the lawn of the Apple Store, across the street from the main entrance to the Convention Center.

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TRB Code of Conduct

Summary:

All forms of discrimination, harassment, and bullying are prohibited in any NASEM activity.

Any violation of this policy should be reported and could result in the removal of an individual from current NASEM activities and a ban on participation in future activities.

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Information contained in a complaint is kept confidential, and information is revealed only on a need-to-know basis.

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Harassment reporting # 202-253-3865 available Jan 8-19

TRB Office of Human Resources 202-334-3400 or hrservicecenter@nas.edu

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https://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/dva/2023CHAIR/CodeofConduct.pdf

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Agenda

  1. Welcome / Introductions
  2. NCHRP 08-154 study: Guidance for Agencies to Incorporate Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning - Naomi Stein
  3. Uncertainty terminology / focus of initiative
  4. 2024 Goals and Activities

https://www.trbtravelforecasting.org/uncertainty

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Introductions

  • Name
  • Affiliation
  • Interest and/or Recent and Planned Activities related to Transportation Uncertainty

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NCHRP 08-154 study:

Guidance for Agencies to Incorporate Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning

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Terminology

  • Types of uncertainty
  • Responses to uncertainty
  • Uncertainty initiative goal

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Dimensions of Uncertainty

Uncertainty Dimension

Epistemic (subjective)

Aleatory (inherent)

Source

Lacking complete knowledge

Stochasticity

Reducing / Handling

Improve knowledge of the system

Improve information of the distributions and possible outcomes

Perspectives on Thinking,Judging,and Decision Making, 2011

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Types of Analyses

Transportation Planning for Uncertain Times, 2022

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State of the practice: predict-then-act

  • Best estimate forecasts
    • Single point predictions
    • Small number of most likely scenarios
    • Expected values of outcomes (risk analysis)
  • Uncertainty handling: seek and destroy (or leave out)
    • Improve knowledge in models, input data to reduce epistemic uncertainty
    • Define distributions of aleatory variability
    • Leave out if uncertainty leads to no clear optimal solution or breaks down the process
      • Autonomous vehicles
      • Work from home behavior

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Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty

  • Robust Decision Making (RDM) framework: hedge, shape, adapt
  • Working within existing forecast uncertainties to stress test strategies
  • Still valuable to reduce epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in context of decision makers, but not primary to predict the future accurately

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Proposed Refinement to Uncertainty Initiative Purpose

  • Focus on advancing Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty practices
  • Promote analysis using:
    • Normative scenarios - given a set of goals, what circumstances bring those about?
    • Exploratory scenarios - range of possible outcomes without assertions of likelihood
  • Promote applications of Robust Decision Making
  • Rename initiative to DMDU

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Quantitative Qualitative

Uncertain

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Certain

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Exploratory Modeling

Exploratory Scenario Analysis

Normative Scenario Analysis

Predictive Scenario Analysis

Risk Analysis

Sensitivity Testing

Forecasting Accuracy

Scenario Planning

Robust Decision Making

Monte Carlo Simulation

Forecasting

Risk Mitigation

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Activities / Goals for 2024

  • Advance DMDU practices
    • DMDU Book Club
    • Zephyr Learning Session on Uncertainty
    • Innovations 2025?
  • Maintain existing tools
    • Community support for TMIP-EMAT
  • Promote new research
    • Call for papers to demonstrate / advance Robust Decision Making in transportation planning