The Quest for a Paradigm Shift:��Is the perception that the world is getting worse, correct?�
Jeremy Dickinson, John Cagno, Dushyant Kumar, Sam Karkach
Paradigm shift:
Fundamental change in an individual's or a society's view of how things work in the world.�
Only 13% of individuals believe the world is getting better.
Which of these are closest to your views?
In the last 20 years the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty has…
A ☐ Almost doubled
B ☐ Remained the same
C ☐ Almost halved
In the last 20 years the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty has…
A ☐ Almost doubled
B ☐ Remained the same
C ☐ Almost halved
When asked 12 similar questions…
Gapminder
Gapminder is an organization founded by Hans Rosling and his son Ola Rosling. Their main goal is to fight mass ignorance
The Gapminder Approach
“Factfulness is recognizing when a story talks about a gap”
Utilizes 2 – 3 features
Focuses on socioeconomic factors
Groups nations by income or region
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Why does the negative perception exist?
According to Hans Rosling…
The Gap Instinct
Hans states that we neglect improvements and focus on what’s negative
Is the media to blame?
Social Media
There are now over 3 billion internet users worldwide.
Facebook currently has 2.23 billion monthly active users
The spread of news and information is faster than ever.
So, is the world getting better?
Our approach
Utilize K-Means Clustering
Cluster from 1960 – 2010 by decade
Analyze additional factors such as crime, climate change, and natural disasters
K – Means
K-means allows us to group countries multidimensionally opposed to regionally or on a single dimension.
Compare cluster movements and disparities on various features
4 cluster analysis
Features: Child Mortality Life Expectancy % Agricultural Land
Income per person Population Growth Total Health Spending
% Water Access HDI Mean Years in School
Results: 1960
Cluster 1 – Life expectancy: 69.75 years
Income per person: $15,652
Child mortality (per 1k): 38.23
Cluster 2 – Life expectancy: 66.43 years
Income per person: $6,494
Child mortality (per 1k): 65.37
Cluster 3 – Life expectancy: 56.46 years
Income per person: $3,732
Child mortality (per 1k): 151.66
Cluster 4 – Life expectancy: 42.97 years
Income per person: $1,701
Child mortality (per 1k): 289.05
Cluster 1 – Life expectancy: 79.27 years
Income per person: $31,937
Child mortality (per 1k): 7.37
Cluster 2 – Life expectancy: 73.54 years
Income per person: $15,321
Child mortality (per 1k): 17.30
Cluster 3 – Life expectancy: 64.72 years
Income per person: $5,789
Child mortality (per 1k): 55.23
Cluster 4 – Life expectancy: 58.42 years
Income per person: $2,981
Child mortality (per 1k): 102.26
Results: 2010
Notable Countries 2010
Cluster 1 – USA
Cluster 2 – China
Cluster 3 – India
Cluster 4 – Nigeria
Distribution of income by cluster 1960 - 2010
Distribution of income by cluster 1960 - 2010
Luxembourg
Income: $81,700
Brunei
Income: $80,600
Note that:
Each cluster is moving up
Distribution is getting wider within clusters
Distribution of income by cluster 1960 - 2010
South Korea moved from cluster 3
to cluster 1 in 50 years
Distribution of income by cluster 1960 - 2010
China moved from cluster 4
to cluster 2 in 50 years
Notable Movers 1960 – 2010
China
Life expectancy increased 141%
Income per person increased 969%
Infant mortality decreased 95%
South Korea
Life expectancy increased 49%
Income per person increased 2543%
Infant mortality decreased 96%
Notable Constant Countries 1960 – 2010
Ethiopia
Life expectancy increased 57%
Income per person increased 60%
Infant mortality decreased 71%
Afghanistan
Life expectancy increased 46%
Income per person increased 33%
Infant mortality decreased 75%
A multivariate view
Scatterplot of combined normalized features
X – features a country would want to decrease; child mortality, population growth
Y – features a country would want to increase; life expectancy, income per person
A multivariate view
Scatterplot of combined normalized features
X – features a country would want to decrease; child mortality, population growth
Y – features a country would want to increase; life expectancy, income per person
A Decrease in X and increase in Y results in an upward left move
Is everything improving?
Factors beyond socioeconomics need to be considered.
Is everything improving?
Crime
Is everything improving?
Crime
Climate Change
Is everything improving?
Crime
Climate Change
Natural Disasters
Crime Misconception
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Madagascar
1
Indonesia
3
2
87
Is crime increasing?
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2
Is crime increasing?
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2
Is crime increasing?
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2
Theft and Murder by 2010 Clusters
Climate Change
“Climate change is no longer some far-off problem; it is happening here, it is happening now.”
-Barack Obama
CO2 Emissions 1966 - 2016
Warm temperature anomalies increase rapidly after 1980
Potential costs of Climate Change
Arctic sea ice coverage shrinking at nearly 4% per decade
Two thirds of the Great Barrier Reef has been bleached or damaged
Sea levels are rising at a faster rate than the past 2700 years
Nearly 50% of plant and animal species at risk from climate change
Natural Disasters
Are the number of natural disasters increasing?
Natural Disasters
Natural Disasters
Note the disproportionate increase in Hydrological disasters
2011 Japan Earthquake/Tsunami
2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake/Tsunami
Is everything improving?� Takeaways
Crime is improving globally, although high performing countries have higher crime rates than we expected
The effects of Climate Change can already be seen, it is a major issue that needs to be addressed globally
Natural Disasters, specifically hydrological disasters, are increasing in frequency and impact
Concluding Remarks
Ignorance and the rapid spread of information encourage pessimistic views of the world
We believe that the world is getting better
Although, factors such as climate change and natural disasters pose a significant threat to all
“Poverty, sickness, wars, famines, old age and death itself were not the inevitable fate of humankind. They were simply the fruits of our ignorance.”
― Yuval Noah Harari, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind�