A New Baseline: COVID 19’s Lasting Impact on Enrollment and Student Success Trends

Lori Gonko, Ed.D.

Fall 2022 Headlines and News

• “Universities Are Going to Continue to Suffer” (CNBC, 10/5/22)�
• ”Enrollment seems to be a mixed bag this fall…Some stories are more disheartening than others.” (Inside Higher Ed, 10/17/22)�
• “College Enrollment is Nowhere Near Pre-Pandemic Levels” (Washington Post, 10/20/22)

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Fall 2022 Headlines and News

• “Fall Undergraduate Enrollment Declines at a Slower Pace but Nearing Pre-Pandemic Rates” (National Student Clearinghouse, 10/20/22)�
• “What Happened to Community College Enrollment During the First Years of the Pandemic? It Depends on the Students’ Age” (CCRC, 1/9/23)�
• “Fall Undergraduate Enrollment Stabilized In 2022” (National Student Clearinghouse, 2/2/23) 

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Enrollment:

National Context

Summer 2020 Summary

• Predominantly online summer sessions after challenging Winter 2020.
• Community colleges, for-profit institutions, and Black students impacted most.
• Associate degree and certificate enrollments fell significantly.
• Bachelor’s and graduate enrollments increased.

Summer 2020: Credential Type

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

Summer 2020: Award Level and R/E

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

Fall 2020 Summary

• Undergraduate enrollment is down 4.4% overall, regardless of student characteristics.
• Public four-year colleges decline by -1.9%.
• Community colleges saw the largest drop, at -9.0%.
• 21.7% fewer high-school graduates went straight to college compared with 2019.
• Sharpest declines for Native American and Black students.
• The decline in male enrollment is nearly three times steeper than women overall (-6.9% vs. -2.6%).
• Double-digit declines occurred among students of both traditional age (18-24) and those aged 30 and older at community colleges.

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Fall 2020: Credential Type

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Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

Fall 2020: Award Level & R/E

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

Fall 2020: Public 4 Year

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

Fall 2020: Public 2 Year

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

Fall 2021 Summary

• Undergraduate enrollment declined 3.5%, a total two-year decline of 7.8% since 2019.
• Decline seen across all demographic characteristics, with female students falling slightly more than males (-4.1% and -3.4%).
• White, Black, and Native American students declined more than Asian and Latinx students.
• Continued enrollment losses among traditional college-age students (18-24) remain concerning (-2.6% for 18-20 and -3.3% for 21-24), with those aged 25-29 declined even further at -9.0%.

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Fall 2021 Summary

• Dual enrollment continues to grow in most states, and high schoolers now comprise nearly 1 in 5 community college students.

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• In Fall 2021, 18.3% of community college students nationally were under 18, up from 15.7% in fall 2019.

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Fall 2021: Credential Type

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

Fall 2021: Public 4-Year

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

Fall 2021: Public 2-Year

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

Fall 2022 Summary

• Institutions lost 1.1% of undergraduates this fall, leading to a total two-year decline of 4.2% since 2020.
• Undergraduate enrollment fell across sectors, especially among four-year institutions.
• Freshman enrollment fell in all four-year sectors, including highly selective private and public flagship institutions.
• Declines at community colleges have slowed substantially to 0.4 percent over last fall, driven entirely by the growth of both dual-enrolled high school students (+11.5%) and 18- to 20-year-old students (+1.4%).
• Undergraduate enrollment declined across all demographic characteristics, except traditional-age students (+0.5% for 18- to 20-year-olds) and Latinx students (+1.2).

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Fall 2022: Credential Type

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

Fall 2022: Public 2-Year

Fall 2022: Public 4-Year

What Else?

• Decline in liberal arts, communications, and some health professions at four-year institutions.
• Community colleges have seen an uptick in the number of students pursuing skilled trade programs, likely in response to the labor market.
• Low-income students have been disproportionally diverted from the college pathway.
• Over the last two cycles, Free Application for Federal Student Aid submissions have declined significantly and especially among students attending low-income high schools (National College Attainment Network, 2021). 

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What Else?

• Clearinghouse now looking at long-term impacts of pandemic, including:
• What happened to students who stopped out?
• What about those who never started college during the pandemic?

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Enrollment:

State Context

Michigan Context - CEPI

The Center for Education Performance and Information updated the latest data on College Enrollment by High School in February 2023.  Colleges should be concerned about three notable data points.

• 52.8% of students who graduated in 2021-22 attended college within 6 months of graduation (lowest percentage over last 10 years).
• This is down 10% from 62.5% just five years ago in 2017-18.
• Under 16,000 students attended community college among the more than 100,000 high school graduates. 

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Michigan Enrollment Trends

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College Enrollment by High School (2017-18 to 2021-22)

Source:  https://mischooldata.org/college-enrollment-by-hs/

Enrollment:

What Happened?

Not Just COVID

• Gates Foundation Study (2022) entitled “Exploring the Exodus from Higher Education”
• Purpose: to understand why growing numbers of people are choosing not to go to college
• Dates: January – April 2022
• Methodology: 11 focus groups and online survey
• Participants: n=1,675 of high school graduates, 18-30 years of age, who chose not to attend college or stopped out.

Exodus Study Findings

• The education marketplace has shifted.
• YouTube, stackable courses, certifications, on-the-job training.
• Mixed views on the value of higher ed.
• More respondents value certification as proof of skill than college degree.
• Reticence about higher ed not limited to a specific demographic.*

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*will examine further �

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Exodus Study Findings

• Decisions about education are made based on value, investment, and opportunity cost.
• Affordability matters but return on investment matters more.
• Want to be assured of the results that would make college worth their time and money.�

Exodus Study Findings

• Study revealed four mutually exclusive subgroups:

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Exodus Study Findings

• “Where is the ROI?” – Questions the value of college and requires guidance to ensure they get the most out of it.
• Preferred supports—how to navigate financial aid and obtain assistance with post-degree job hunting—to help them answer and overcome the ROI question.�
• “Why Change the Status Quo”– Report the most success with their current life situation (including employment) and as such, must overcome the opportunity cost they face associated with obtaining a degree.
• Consider presenting lifetime earnings data and graduate outcomes data in communication campaigns.
• Flexible course offerings that fit their existing lifestyle.

Exodus Study Findings

• “Cost-Conscious Explorers” – Sees the value of a college degree but view the anxiety/pressure associated with it as an obstacle.
• They react positively to most supports, including those to help avoid the stress of debt and provide more program flexibility to fit their lives.�
• “It’s Not for Me” – This segment is the furthest from obtaining a college degree and likely the least affected by policy interventions. Compared to the other segments, they have they least confidence in their abilities and see the least value in college and other educational options.

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Student Success

Balancing Act Study

• Gallup and Lumina Foundation Study (2022) entitled “Balancing Act: The Tradeoffs and Challenges Facing Black Students in Higher Education”
• Purpose: to understand why growing numbers of people are choosing not to go to college
• Dates: October – November 2022
• Methodology: Online survey
• Participants: n=12,015 U.S. adults, 18-59 years of age, who graduated high school but have not yet earned an associate or bachelor’s degree.

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Balancing Act Study Findings

• Six-year completion rates for any type of degree or certificate program are lower for Black students than for those in any other group.
• 34% of Black Americans have an associate degree or higher compared with 46% of the general population (2021).*

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*will drill down to Michigan in subsequent slides/studies

Balancing Act Study Findings

• Biggest obstacles faced include
• Cost
• Lack of extracurricular support
• Overt and implicit forms of discrimination
• Study highlighted the importance of cultural inclusion and antidiscrimination efforts in closing the achievement gap for Black students.

Balancing Act Study Findings

• Closing the achievement gap for Black students often means encouraging short-term certificate programs.
• However, these programs are populated largely with—and taught mainly by—white men.

“Black students are walking into an environment that is predominantly white, older, male, that is likely not welcoming, that likely has outdated curriculum with instructors that don’t look like them or can’t mentor them,” she said. “They don’t feel like they belong.”�

- Courtney Brown, Lumina’s Vice President of Strategic Impact and Planning

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Balancing Act Study Findings

• For many demographic groups, enrollment and attainment declines have been tied in part to growing doubts about the value of higher education (see Exodus study).
• However – Black students are more likely to face opportunity cost than skepticism about higher ed’s value.

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Stronger Nation: Lumina

• Lumina Foundation tracking America’s post-high school educational attainment since 2009 for adults ages 25-64.
• Goal of 60% by 2025.
• Currently at 53.7% nationally; have increased by 16 percentage points since 2009.

Stronger Nation: Michigan Data

• Michigan lags when compared to the national average of 53.7 percent.

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Stronger Nation: Michigan Data

2021 Education Distribution: MI Residents Ages 25-64

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Stronger Nation: Michigan Data

2021 Education Distribution: MI Residents Ages 25-64 by Race/Ethnicity

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Stronger Nation: Michigan Data

Stronger Nation: Michigan County Data

2021 Education Distribution: MI Residents Ages 25-64 by Race/Ethnicity

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Synthesis and Takeaways

• Enrollment is stabilizing, but fewer students are attending college directly from high school.
• Trend exacerbated for underrepresented student populations.
• Meanwhile, dual enrollment is increasing.
• Underrepresented students struggling the most to achieve successful outcomes.

Using the Data: Next Steps

• To rebuild enrollment, examine opportunities for expanding dual enrollment programs, particularly for underrepresented students. �
• Dual enrolled students 2.5 times more likely to complete a degree in 2 years, or 1.5 times more likely to complete in 3 years, than non-dual enrolled students (CCRC).�
• Many community colleges now engaging in a paradigm shift: Not just serving the academic high performers but widening the funnel.

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Using the Data: Next Steps

• Ensure that programs are worth completing.
• What programs are our students completing?
• What do they lead to?
• Which groups of students are underrepresented in programs leading to stronger postgraduation outcomes?
• See: CCRC Completions by Level and Program 

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Using the Data: Next Steps

• For students who view higher ed through the lens of opportunity cost, continue to consider financial supports to ease concerns:

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• Desirable Financial Supports (reported in Gallup/Lumina study more from students of color)
• Being able to get more education without additional debt
• Having a free class for all new students on managing personal finances
• Being matched w/ a financial aid advisor who can help w/ financial aid, scholarships, and questions about $ management
• Free technology, such as a laptop and internet access, when you enroll
• Assistance with costs of living, such as childcare and free transportation, etc.

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Using the Data: Next Steps

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“Addressing the completion gap doesn’t call for making a stronger pitch to Black students about the benefits of higher ed; rather, it requires committing to material support that can help make two or four years in college feasible for those who are low-income.”

- Courtney Brown, Lumina’s Vice President of Strategic Impact and Planning

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Using the Data: Next Steps

• For students who view higher ed through the lens of ROI, consider supports that extend beyond the financial (reported more from White students and those from higher socioeconomic backgrounds):
• Having more flexibility in programs to fit your life
• Job counselor who will help you make connections, prepare for interviews, help you find job you are looking for
• Counselor to help you figure out what to study, classes to take, meeting major requirements
• Having opportunities to get real-world, hands-on experience while in school
• Knowing that all of your classes will be in person

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Using the Data: Next Steps

• What data stood out to you?
• What would you like to explore further?
• How do you think you can use this data to influence enrollment, retention, and completion initiatives at your institution?

Links to Referenced Studies

1. National Student Clearinghouse Data Sets (Published annually)
2. Inside Higher Ed: The Great Interruption (Published February 28, 2022)
3. Gates Foundation “Exploring the Exodus from Higher Education”  (Published Sept. 28, 2022)
4. State of Michigan data from MISchoolData (CEPI, updated with 2021-22 data)
5. Gallup and Lumina Foundation “Balancing Act” study (Published February 9, 2023)
6. Lumina Foundation “Stronger Nation” (updated with 2021 data)
7. CCRC “To Build Back Enrollment, Community Colleges Must Ensure That Their Programs Are Worth Completing” (Published Sept. 29, 2022)