Presidential General Elections

Conventions and Their Delegates

• Just a brief word about conventions—Republicans 2020 (Pandemic affected: Charlotte/Jacksonville), 2024 Milwaukee; Democrats 2020 (Pandemic affected) Milwaukee, 2024 Chicago

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• No longer forum in which candidates determined

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• Therefore the question has been asked, What good are they? Especially since partially financed by public money
• Network television coverage has been reduced, viewership is down

Conventions and Their Delegates

• Platform ratified—a document that is supposed to sum up the party’s philosophy

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• But
• Voters listen to and observe actions of presidential candidates, not platforms
• Platforms inevitably quite extreme, platform committees and delegates quite extreme ideologically

Conventions and Their Delegates

• Conventions have therefore become seen as a giant “pep rally”
• Party sells itself and its candidate to the voters – becomes like a biography of nominee, family members speak, videos etc
• Designed to motivate core supporters and ready them for the election campaign

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Running Mates

• Most important decision that occurs just prior to the convention is the selection of a running mate - previous “systems”

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• 1. Before the XII Amendment (1804) the Vice President was the person who came second in the election, every elector 2 votes
• 1800 election

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• 2. Candidates ran separately for president and vice-president (1804-32)

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• 3. Convention nominated vice-presidential candidate (1836-1960)
• Horse-trading, often in return for support of presidential nominee at the convention
• Democrats in 1960 the last example of this

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• 4. Now the presidential candidates themselves select their running mates
• Although these picks need to be formally accepted by the convention delegates

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Running Mates

• Traditional wisdom was the pick should provide some kind of “balance” – the decision is about the election, not governing

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• Geography especially, particularly important for the Democrats because of the strong southern wing
• JFK-LBJ 1960, Dukakis-Bentsen 1988, Carter-Mondale 1976-80, Kerry-Edwards 2004

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• But today others kinds of balance

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• Ideology, especially for Republicans
• Reagan-Bush 1980-84, Bush-Quayle 1988-92, Dole-Kemp 1996, Romney-Ryan 2012
• Harris-Walz 2024?

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Running Mates

• Experience—and particular need on foreign policy
• Bush-Cheney 2000-4, Obama-Biden 2008-12

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• We’ve even seen gender & racial balance
• Mondale-Ferraro 1984, McCain-Palin 2008, Biden-Harris 2020
• Conscious racial balance
• Biden-Harris 2020
• Generational balance
• Biden-Harris 2020; Trump-Vance 2024

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• These and some of the ideologically balanced tickets also tried to combine youth and energy with a steadier hand

Running Mates

• Trump?
• With Pence (2016 & 2020) idea that balance with a social conservative and establishment Republican

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• Possibly only one ticket in recent era that eschewed balance idea

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• Clinton-Gore 1992-96
• Both “Boomers”
• Both southern states, in fact neighboring
• Both moderates, although I’d say Gore to left of Clinton

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• Clinton decided to “double down” on energy and youth in a year when many wanted change and Bush seen as old and tired

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Money

• Like the nomination contests, there is a public financing in generals
• Traditionally nominees of the two major parties take a lump sum and cannot raise or spend more—although national party committees can
• Sum in 2024, $123.5 million
• 2008, Obama became the first candidate to reject public funds—he raised roughly $500 million
• 2012, Obama and Romney reject—leading to massive influx of money, which exacerbated with the super PACs and that unlimited independent spending
• 2016, Clinton and Trump reject—Trump not even really have Super PAC, not rely on conventional advertising as much
• 2020, Biden and Trump reject—Biden $1 billion + $500 million Super PAC (both general and nomination); Trump $775 million + $340 million Super PAC (general only)
• Seems as though the entire presidential campaign finance system is obsolete

Debates

• Presidential debates fixture of the campaigns
• Unlike debates in primaries; formal and institutionalized
• First in 1960—famous Kennedy-Nixon when those who watched on tv thought JFK won, those on radio Nixon
• Immediately stopped, but held every election since 1976
• Run by nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates

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Debates

• Today pattern of 3x presidential, 1x vice-presidential
• Themes? Domestic policy, foreign policy, “town hall” style

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• Probably only make a difference at the margins, though in a close election that can be important
• Obama really seen as losing the first debate 2012
• Bush in 2000 threatens not to debate, convey the idea that he’s not very good and skillfully lowers expectations
• Most people felt Clinton won debates 2016, especially first
• Big mistakes and genuine breakthroughs rare
• 1976, Ford states that Poland not under Soviet control
• 1980, Reagan reassures many doubters with solid first debate performance, doesn’t look back in polls

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Debates

• In 2024, candidates could not agree to debates through the Commission and came to agreements between themselves brokered by sponsoring media organizations
• Led to unprecedented pre-convention debate in June, Biden-Trump
• Biden’s disastrous performance heightened Democratic fears about his competence and led to pressure for him to not accept the nomination
• Harris and Trump then agreed to one debate in early Sept.
• VP debate in October

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Debates

• The debates are a chance to see the candidates under pressure and unscripted

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• Do they have a strong grasp of the issues?

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• Debates always have some value in this way
• And are watched by millions, over 70 million for all the debates in 2016; 81.4 for first one (biggest audience ever)
• 2020 – first debate 73 million
• 2024 – Sept. debate about 60 million

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Strategy

• The Electoral College and states’ unit rules mean this becomes 51 contests in a race to get 270 electoral votes
• As a result candidates concentrate on states where polls suggest outcomes uncertain—i.e. “battleground” or “swing” states
• Resources (money, ads, staff) and candidate (and proxies’) time are spent there
• In 2024 places like PA, NC, MI, WI, AZ, GA, NH, NV

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Independent Candidates

• Very few independent or third party candidates important since 1900
• 1912, Theodore Roosevelt becomes only candidate not from a major party to come second
• 1948 & 1968, states’ rights and segregationist candidates Strom Thurmond and George Wallace win 4 & 5 deep southern states respectively
• 1980 John Anderson wins 7% of vote
• 1992 & 1996 Ross Perot runs, winning 19% and 8% of vote—but no electoral votes
• 2000 Ralph Nader wins 97,000 votes as Green—Bush beats Gore by 537 out of 6 million cast
• Possibly a plurality gone to Gore

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Results

• Recent elections, map quite static
• 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024; note 2008 comfortable Obama win in context of recent elections, but not broader history
• 2000 comes down to court challenges over FL and calls for recounts—finally decided by Supreme Court in December in calling for statewide, not selected counties, to do recount
• 2016 – also popular vote plurality winner not win election
• Landslides 1972, 1980, 1984
• Party politics has changes—map in 1976 v. recent

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