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�Ill Winds:�Is There a Global Crisis�Of Liberal Democracy?��

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And How to Respond

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Six key trends:�A deepening democratic recession

  • Declining global levels of freedom and democracy
  • Deteriorating rule of law
  • Wave of illiberal populism
  • Increasing polarization and intolerance, magnified by social media
  • Authoritarian resurgence and power projection (Russia and China)
  • Decay of democratic values and self-confidence in US and Europe.

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I.� DEEPENING RECESSION OF FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY

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Four Warning Signs of Authoritarian Behavior�Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, How Democracies Die

  • Rejection of (or weak commitment to) democratic rules of the game
  • Denunciation of democratic opponents as illegitimate, threatening, disloyal
  • Toleration or encouragement of violence
  • Readiness to curtail media freedom and civil liberties of opponents

(Lack of civility, tolerance & respect for opposition)

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Expansion of Democracy, 1974-2017� Percent of States (pop > 1 mil.)

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Ratio of Gains to Declines in Freedom, �1991-2017

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Rate of Democratic Breakdown (1975-2017)

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The General Downward Slide

  • Liberal Democracies becoming less liberal
  • Electoral Democracies are at risk, in crisis (Brazil, Philippines, Peru) or are breaking down (Hungary, Turkey, Thailand, Bangladesh, Zambia)
  • “Competitive authoritarian regimes” stifling any opposition or dissent (Uganda, Cambodia)
  • Authoritarian regimes cracking down harder (Russia, China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia)

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The Autocrats’ 12-step Program

  • Demonize and delegitimize political opposition
  • Undermine the independence of the courts.
  • Undermine the independence of the media
  • Gain control of public broadcasting
  • Constrain Internet freedom
  • Subdue civil society: NGOs, universities, think tanks
  • Intimidate the business community into submission
  • Enrich a class of loyal crony capitalists
  • Extend political control over state bureaucracy & security
  • Rig electoral rules
  • Gain control over electoral administration
  • Repeat steps 1 to 11, ever more vigorously

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Turkey’s PM Tayep Reccip Erdogan

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Erdogan on election night, March 30, 2014

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“We are the owners of this country, the people will not bow and Turkey is invincible.

Those [who revealed state secrets] who managed could flee. More can flee tomorrow. …from now on, we’ll walk into their dens. They will pay for this. How can you threaten our national security?

Dirty relations and unnamed alliances have lost today… hit with a full Ottoman slap by the nation.”

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From A Besieged Ugandan Civil Society Leader

The situation in Uganda is degenerating so quickly. As Museveni moves to amend the constitutional age limit so he can contest again for president, he has embarked on a campaign of terror….

Three NGOs in five days have been under siege by the police. Members of the armed forces entered parliament last week and beat up MPs who were protesting the the bill to lift the age limit. Several MPs were hospitalized.

It appears to me the whole region is in a steep democratic recession, partly because of the loud silence from their western allies. In the past, the state was a little reluctant to be this brute and violent and had some measure of shame. It is all gone.

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Causes of Democratic Breakdown

  • Weak Rule of Law
      • Weak, corrupt, or partial judiciary
      • Weak, ineffectual monitoring institutions
      • Widespread corruption, abuse of power
      • Human rights violations, with impunity
      • Violence, criminality, lawlessness

2. Executive aggrandizement of power; due to weak constraints by constitution, parliament, civil society

3. Severe polarization around party, ethnic, religious, class or identity lines; intolerance

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Causes of Democratic Breakdown 2

4. Weak Political Institutions (political parties, parliaments)

5. Poor Economic Performance

      • Poverty, inequality, injustice

🡪 BAD GOVERNANCE

6. Low trust in institutions, loss of legitimacy

7. Unfavorable international environment: China, Russia, Kleptocracy, American complacency, stresses of globalization

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III.�THE RISE OF ILLIBERAL�POPULISM

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Key elements of Illiberal Populism

  • Anti-elitist
  • Anti-pluralist
  • Anti-institutional (acute distrust of inst’s)
  • Hegemonic tendencies: claim to be the only legitimate representative of the “true” people
  • Plebiscitary—direct over rep democracy
  • Illiberal—intolerant of religious, ethnic, & other minorities
  • Nationalist—anti-globalization

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Creeping Autocracy Threatens Democracies

South African President Jacob Zuma

Philippines President Elect Rody Duterte, who vows to be a “dictator” against “evil”

Peruvian Presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the former dictator

Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, with Pres. Putin

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Left Populism

Podemos Leader, Pablo Iglesias

Greek PM and Syriza leader, Alexis Tsirpas

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IV. Social Media 🡪 Polarization

  • End of a common media space, with established mass media as gatekeepers, filters, to ensure civility and factuality
  • Loss of a common public sphere
  • Ebbing of cross-cutting cleavages
  • Social bubbles, or “echo chambers” of reinforcing opinion
  • Outrageous and extreme posts go “viral”
  • Empowerment of extremes
  • 🡪 Polarization, more intense opinions, less tolerance.

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V. The Authoritarian Power Surge

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The Authoritarian Resurgence

  • Crackdown on civil society, declining space in authoritarian regimes, becoming more authoritarian
  • Enhanced repression and media/Internet censorship: Russia, China, Egypt, Iran, etc.
  • Criminalizing foreign donor support to NGOs
  • Cooperation among authoritarian regimes, sharing of tools and techniques (Shanghai Coop Org, GCC)
  • Aggressive and opaque soft power projection (Russia, China, Iran)
  • Coercion, intimidation, military force (Russia)

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Russian information war on American democracy

  • Hacking into political email accounts and data bases
  • “Weaponization” (selective and carefully timed release) of information
  • Bots and trolls to magnify polarization with fake accounts
  • Purchase of political adds on Facebook and Twitter
  • Hacking into state voter registration databases

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China’s Influence Operations

  • Global expansion of state-run media (Xinhua, People’s Daily, CGTV🡪 Voice of China)
  • Confucius Institutes 🡪 positive views of China
  • Purchase US movie studios, media & IT companies (AMC,, Grindr dating platform)
  • Chinese-funded think tanks in W democracies
  • Opaque grants to US institutions and individuals for pro-China studies
  • Infiltration and monitoring of overseas Chinese communities, media and students

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China’s Bid for Domination

  • Global purchase of farmland, critical firms & infrastructure
  • Forced technology transfer and theft
  • Increase in military spending
  • Militarization of South China Seas
  • One Belt One Road. 99-year lease for SL Hambantota Port

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VI. Decay Of Western �Liberal Democracies

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Democratic Trends in Advanced Democracies

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Possible Internal Causes of Democratic Crisis

  • Economic stagnation/decline. Flat real wages. Insecurity, decline of middle/working classes.
  • Growing economic inequality within nations
  • Managing pluralism and diversity; high levels of immigration
  • Globalization of corruption; kleptocracy
  • Social media polarization, fragmented media sphere
  • More powerful, aggressive Russia and China
  • American complacency & withdrawal: ebbing of democracy promotion & international leadership

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Key Policy Responses

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Democracy Assistance

  • Support, train coalitions for anti-corruption, Rule of Law reforms.
  • Increase but condition aid for key swing states: Ukraine, Tunisia
  • Increase assistance to independent media, investigative journalism, & NGOs to fight corruption & promote good governance reforms
  • Use diplomacy to defend civic space, denounce human rights violations, and defend democratic principles

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Promoting Democratic Culture & Ideas

  • Renewed public diplomacy for freedom and democracy (war of ideas and information)
  • Invest in public-private partnerships for new tools to defend Internet freedom and security
  • Long-term campaign to translate and distribute democratic knowledge and ideas (MOOCs, e-books, flash drives)

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Combat Russian and Chinese (Sharp) Power

  • Grasp, document & explain the threats by Russian & Chinese penetration and manipulation of democracies
  • Targeted sanctions to punish individual elites who violate our democracies or abuse hum rights; Global Magnitsky Act
  • Document and expose their hidden wealth
  • Modernize and harden our voting (& other) systems against foreign cyber attacks
  • Demand reciprocity for Western media in Russia & China
  • Transparency re Confucius Institutes & other foreign funding
  • Research and expose Chinese United Front activities
  • Support for cities, states, and org’s to manage Chinese engagement
  • Enhance, modernize American military strength

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Counter Chinese Technology Capture

  • Ban investment in critical technological sectors by foreign adversaries (e.g. China)
  • Ban purchase, use of Chinese telecom technology by government agencies
  • Greatly enlarge CFIUS mandate & resources to investigate and block much wider range of transactions (2018 National Defense Authorization Act)
  • Revise visa regime to attract and keep foreign tech talent in US
  • Increase federal government R & D to 2% of GDP
  • Increase U.S. training in science and technology

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THANK YOU