No laptops in class!���“Phone days” will be announced at the beginning of class

Not Fun and Games

TWO highly predictive factors:���Anacracy��Balkanization based on identity�(ethnic, religious, racial)

The NFAC

In the next decade, a civil war in the United States is:�� VERY LIKELY: 14% �21% (R) 14% (D)��SOMEWHAT LIKELY: 29%�33% (R) 26% (D)�

YouGov and the Economist, 2022

Another recent study found about half of the U.S. expects a civil war in the next decade.

medRxiv

Colombia Conflict��1964 – 2016��16.9 percent of the population were direct victims of war�(death, injury, displacement)

FARC – Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia

Erbil�Iraq

Mosul before and after ISIS

ISIS enters Mosul

Haitham Shakarchi�Mosul, Iraq��Yuli Prieto�Bogotá, Colombia

Sunni and Shia��Republicans and Democrats��Catholics and Protestants��Whites and People of Color