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THE WAR ON TERROR

The Rise or Fall of Terrorism?

William Huard, Robert Bruno, Hadis Nabavi�Prepared for:�The United Nations�12/19/2018

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Global Terrorism Database

180,000 Attacks

(1970-2017)

What is a terrorist attack?

Attributes: (3 / 3)

Intentional
Violence
Sub-national Actors

Criterion: (2 / 3)

Goal
Intention
Warfare

The United Nations provided us with The Global Terrorism Database, which includes information on over 180,000 attacks worldwide from 1970 through 2017. This open-source database is maintained by researchers at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), headquartered at the University of Maryland. The dataset includes data on domestic and international terrorist incidents that have occurred during this period, granted they meet the following attributes and criterion:

Attributes: (all 3 must be present)

1. The incident must be intentional

2. The incident must entail some level of violence or immediate threat of violence

3. The perpetrators of the incidents must be sub-national actors

3.1. Thus, the dataset does not include acts of state terrorism

Criterion: (2 of the 3 must be present)

1. The act must be aimed at attaining a political, economic, religious, or social goal

2. There must be evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate, or convey some other message to a larger audience than the immediate victims

3. The action must be outside the context of legitimate warfare activities

We examined the data in two subsections, Pre and Post 9/11 to answer the following:

Has terrorism increased after 9/11?
What regions are experiencing a rise or fall in terrorism?
Concerning defensive efforts, what types of weapons are being used and what are the primary targets for terrorist activities?

We used the information discovered in answering these questions to help the UN in continuing to diminish terrorism around the world.

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Terrorist Attacks by Year

Overall
Initial Rise of 5% - 2001
2002-2004 slight decreases
2005 73% growth
2014 Worst Year
831% Increase (2014 and 2000)

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Regression Analysis

Years & Number of Attacks

Call:�lm(formula = number.of.attacks ~ year, data = df.sql)��Residuals:� Min 1Q Median 3Q Max �-4588.3 -1936.1 425.9 1123.5 9348.2 ��Coefficients:� Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) �(Intercept) -355058.46 60248.30 -5.893 4.50e-07 ***�year 180.05 30.22 5.958 3.61e-07 ***�---�Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1��Residual standard error: 2901 on 45 degrees of freedom�Multiple R-squared: 0.4409, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4285 �F-statistic: 35.49 on 1 and 45 DF, p-value: 3.61e-07

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Regions Affected - Pre and Post 2001

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Attack Dispersion Pre-9/11

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Attack Dispersion Post-9/11

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Targets by the Numbers

Top 5

Private Citizens & Property:

Pre-9/11 - 19% (1)
Post-9/11 - 27% (1)

Business:

Pre-9/11 - 17% (2)
Post-9/11 - 8% (5)

Military:

Pre-9/11 - 13% (3)
Post-9/11 - 17% (2)

Government:

Pre-9/11 - 13% (4)
Post-9/11 - 11% (4)

Police:

Pre-9/11 - 11% (5)
Post-9/11 - 15% (3)

The Top 5 Targets have remained the same Pre and Post 9/11, however, their rankings have shifted. There were 73,000 total attacks Pre-9/11 and 108,000 total attacks Post 9/11. Private Citizens & Property accounted for 19% of the 73,000 attacks and 27% of the 108,00 attacks, while remaining ranked number one all time. Notably, Military targets are now ranked second and Police targets ranked third, amongst 22 different possible target types.

Although, the Top 5 Targets have remained the same, the charts on the right tell an interesting story. The charts are based on the total number of targets per year and grouped with similar target types. Interestingly, the top two charts follow similar paths. That is, the number of targets per year remains essentially the same, with a slight dip in the early 2000s. See next slide for bottom chart discussion points.

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Targets by the Numbers

Top 5

Private Citizens & Property:

Pre-9/11 - 19% (1)
Post-9/11 - 27% (1)

Business:

Pre-9/11 - 17% (2)
Post-9/11 - 8% (5)

Military:

Pre-9/11 - 13% (3)
Post-9/11 - 17% (2)

Government:

Pre-9/11 - 13% (4)
Post-9/11 - 11% (4)

Police:

Pre-9/11 - 11% (5)
Post-9/11 - 15% (3)

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Targets by the Numbers

Linear Models

## lm(formula = attacks ~ abortion + airport + foodwater + maritime +

## ngo + telecom + tourist, data = targdf)

## Coefficients:

## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)

## (Intercept) -544.24 609.35 -0.893 0.3772

## abortion -72.41 60.30 -1.201 0.2371

## airport 29.33 16.95 1.731 0.0914 .

## foodwater 160.02 72.40 2.210 0.0330 *

## maritime 92.92 49.68 1.870 0.0689 .

## ngo 148.58 23.24 6.392 1.48e-07 ***

## telecom -22.71 24.34 -0.933 0.3565

## tourist -40.04 48.42 -0.827 0.4132

## ---

## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

## Multiple R-squared: 0.8224, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7906

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Targets by the Numbers

Linear Models

## lm(formula = attacks ~ business + govgen + military + police +

## private, data = targdf)

## Coefficients:

## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)

## (Intercept) -7.34436 30.40289 -0.242 0.81

## business 1.85312 0.11770 15.745 < 2e-16 ***

## govgen 1.23945 0.15048 8.237 3.14e-10 ***

## military 1.21002 0.07114 17.009 < 2e-16 ***

## police 1.16577 0.11040 10.559 2.90e-13 ***

## private 1.26232 0.04067 31.034 < 2e-16 ***

## ---

## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

## Multiple R-squared: 0.9994, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9994

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Weapons in Depth

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Conclusion

Has terrorism increased after 9/11?

Based on our analysis, we can say that the attacks have grown after 9/11

What regions are experiencing a rise or fall in terrorism?

North, Central and South America & Western Europe

Middle East & North Africa, South Asia and Sub Saharan Africa

Concerning defensive efforts, what types of weapons are being used and what are the primary targets for terrorist activities?

Explosive
Firearms
Incendiary

Private Citizens & Property
Military
Police

Government
Business