Rapid Climate Change & Impacts for Environmental Assessment � �By: Paul H. Beckwith�Laboratory for Paleoclimatology and Climatology �Department of Geography, University of Ottawa�http://paulbeckwith.net
Southern Chiefs’ Organization Inc.
Federal Environmental Assessment Review
South Beach Workshop: 1:45 to 2:30 pm
Thursday November 15th, 2016
A new way of doing EAs to deal with Climate Change
This includes measuring/monitoring of:
Climate system of Earth (human timescales)
(IPCC:AR4, WG1, Ch. 1, 2007)
Global climate system: Joining the dots
Increased human fossil fuel combustion and land use changes
→ atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (CO2, CH4, N20) are quickly rising at ever increasing rates
→ decreases equator-to-Arctic temperature difference → less heat moves from the equator to the pole in:
Climate Reanalyzer: University of Maine http://www.cci-reanalyzer.org/
Earth nullschool (global map of weather and ocean conditions)
click on text “Earth” for accessing menus https://earth.nullschool.net//
Arctic sea ice graphs https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/
Atmospheric methane and CO2 concentrations
Global CO2 emissions from humans
Atmospheric rise in CO2 is expected to be from 4 to 5 ppm in 2016 (unprecedented rise)
Very bad news, since this seems to indicate that global sinks are likely failing
Feb, 2016 average higher than 1951-1980 average by 1.35oC; 1951-1980 average higher than 1880-1910 average by 0.3oC; 1880-1910 average higher than 1750 by 0.15oC
Conclusion: Feb, 2016 higher than pre-industrial (1750) by 1.8oC
Arctic sea-ice yearly minimum volume (mid-September)
RED line: Arctic region temperature above latitude 80oN for 2016, compared to long-term average (green line). Red curve end on November 13, 2016 has temperature about 17oC above average, meaning it is still “summer” in the Arctic in November.
Up-to-date daily information on Arctic sea ice concentration, thickness and ice movement from U.S. Navy
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html
Arctic sea-ice monthly average volume
Scenario: overall trend continues; high probability that the first “blue ocean” event will occurs by 2022 (ice-free duration would likely be less than 1 month in September for the first “blue ocean” event)
Ice-free duration would be extended to 3 months by t + 1 or 2 years (2023 to 2024)
Ice-free duration would be extended to 5 months by t + 3 years (2025)
Ice-free duration all year by roughly t + 10 years (2030 or so)
Huge feedback: The quantity of heat (latent heat) that is sufficient to melt 1 kg of ice at just below freezing to 1 kg of water at just above freezing would raise the temperature (sensible heat) of that 1 kg of water to 80 oC.
Northern Hemisphere snow cover anomalies in June
Fraction of ice sheet surface on Greenland subject to melting (albedo is lower in these regions) http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/images-essays/fig3.1d-tedesco.png
Sea-level increase, ocean pH decrease, ice cap melting
1) Expansion of water; 2) mountain glacier melt; 3) ice caps melt; 4) Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet melt
Present rate: 3.4 mm/year; projected rise of 1 foot by 2050, up to 2 meters by 2100; Hansen says 5 meters
Paleorecords: 121 kyr ago (Eemian); rise 50 cm/decade for 5 straight decades (Blanchon et. al., 2009)
CO2 in air + water vapor → carbonic acid → rain drops → acidifies ocean (30% more acidic than 30 to 40 years ago
Albedo and methane feedbacks in the Arctic
Terrestrial permafrost 1700 Gtons C; ESAS permafrost
1750 Gtons; 50 Gtons in precarious state, liable to
sudden release
release of only 15 Gtons over 10 years would dominate
CO2 forcing (no chance at 2oC stabilization)
Methane in the Arctic
Up to now methane emissions in Arctic are
estimated to be quite small (10-20 Mtons carbon)
Very recent escalation of emissions (last few years)
Region to watch: Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS); 100s of plumes tens of meters in diameter seen a few years ago, changed to 100s of plumes as large as 1 km in diameter for
study area)
Note: (simple area ratio (1000 m/20 m)2 =
2500x larger)
Atmospheric methane gas
concentrations measured at
opposite sides of Arctic, in Alaska and Svalbard
Methane sources: permafrost and ocean floor sediments
Methane in Arctic atmosphere
Methane in Arctic atmosphere
Methane levels over 5 years in the Arctic showing a large increase in open water regions near the sea ice.
https://robertscribbler.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/methane-jan21-31.jpg
January 21st to 31st
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Downward looking Arctic view: shows “normal” and “wavy” jet stream configurations. Purple areas are cold and brown areas are warmer. Jet streams are white border lines between the cold and warm air masses. http://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/inline_all/public/Jan5_Nov14-16_500mb_geopotentialheight_mean_620.jpg?itok=zdAE3xoi
Side view of exceptionally wavy jet stream.
https://eos.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/GL060764_Hassanzadeh_cropped_web-800x600.jpg
Jet stream configuration near Calgary during record flood of June, 2013 with insured costs exceeding $6 Billion; http://media.twnmm.com/storage/11698939/15
Calgary flooded sections during record flood of June, 2013 with insured costs exceeding $6 Billion; http://media.twnmm.com/storage/11698939/15
Temperature anomalies on Aug. 13, 2003, one of worst days in extensive, long-duration European heatwave that killed >70,000 people. From Climate Reanalyzer Root cause was wavy and stuck (persistent) jet stream ridge.
Example from Earth Nullschool of Lake Winnipeg region, showing surface winds from April 1, 2015. The coordinates/windspeed and direction on the top left is data at the location of the green circle.
Example from Earth Nullschool (see links section) of Lake Winnipeg region, showing jet stream winds (at 250 mbar pressure level) from April 1, 2015. The coordinates/windspeed and direction on the top left is data at the location of the green circle.
Example from Earth Nullschool (see links section) of Lake Winnipeg region, showing jet stream winds (at 250 mbar pressure level) from April 1, 2015. The coordinates/windspeed and direction on the top left is data at the location of the green circle.
Projected Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
Projection of global spatial variability of wet/dry conditions from NCAR analysis (Dai, 2011) shows that many regions of the globe are expected to get much drier. The Winnipeg Lake Basin primarily straddles the light and dark orange regions (-1 to -3) and lower, reaching -6 to -8 as you move westward to central Canada.
Procrastination to action: climate Pearl Harbor(s)?
Drivers of serious government action: “bad things must happen to regular people in rich countries right now”; media must report them as being a result of climate change; requires a change in “world view”
More comprehensive presentation at:
http://www.cmos.ca/Ottawa/SpeakersSlides/PaulBeckwith_19Jan2012.pdf
“Owing to past neglect, in the face of the plainest warnings, we have entered upon a period of danger…. The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…. We cannot avoid this period, we are in it now….”
Winston Churchill, Nov. 12, 1936, British House of Commons
Global-to-Local Scale: Manitoba and Environmental Assessments
1) Climate history (temperature and precipitation) over the last century in Manitoba (historical averages and trends) are often used as a basis for expected future changes. This method can be prone to very large errors and uncertainties since the global climate changes discussed have essentially changed the statistics of climate and thus weather events.
2) Variability has increased across most timescales including decadal, year-to-year and even seasonal, monthly and weekly timescales. The term “weather whiplashing” applies. For example, the Mississippi River in the U.S. experienced record flood levels one year, record low water levels the next year, and then record flood levels again the following year. A particular city can experience record high temperatures one week, record low temperatures the next week, and swing back to record high temperatures the subsequent week. The risk of this “whiplashing” is dependent on the regions location relative to the jet stream wave locations.
Global-to-Local Scale: Manitoba and EAs
3) Climate projections for Manitoba are based on “downscaling” the Global Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) to the specific region. This makes sense when the GCMs closely mirror the reality of a slowly varying, linear climate system. However it can be very risky to rely on these models when we are experiencing the rapid changes in the climate system that have been described earlier.
4) Manitoba climate/hydroclimate studies assess atmosphere and water conditions (including lake levels, streamflows and water temperatures) based on data from the last century as well as projections from the regional models. With much greater variability due to global climate system changes, these studies are expected to be much less accurate.
5) Since climate statistics have changed, probabilities that are based on a stable climate, namely the risks of “one-in-a-hundred” or “one-in-a-thousand” events need to be carefully evaluated since they may no longer be valid. In this case, more weighting on recent behaviour over the nearest decade may lead to better risk assessment.
Global-to-Local Scale: Manitoba and EAs
6) Lake Winnipeg water temperature is very important during heat waves with extended droughts. Annual evaporation will remove much more than 20% of the inflow, the lake volume will decrease and there will be much greater risk of eutrophication and blue-green algae blooms, similar to what occurred on the west shore of Lake Erie in summer/2014.
7) The decrease in the mean discharge of the Saskatchewan River needs to be studied carefully since many glacially fed rivers are drying up due to rapidly declining snowpacks in the mountains. Steadily rising temperature trends at mountain elevations are causing the rapid decline of glaciers, as well as a 20% decline in spring snow cover throughout the Rockies in the U.S. since 1980 (Pederson et al., 2013). The Peyto glacier which helps feed the Mistaya and North Saskatchewan Rivers has lost about 70% of ice mass. Glaciers in the Rocky Mountains supply the majority of the stream flow used in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Also, runoff from snowpack supplies between 60 to 80% of annual water supplies to 70 million people in the American West (USGS), see article: http://e360.yale.edu/feature/loss_of_snowpack_and_glaciers_in_rockies_poses_water_threat/2785/
Global-to-Local Scale: Manitoba and EAs
7) (continued):
The glacier covered regions in the South and North Saskatchewan River Basins in Alberta have declined in area by 37% and 22% respectively since 1975 (Pomeroy, 2014). In the short term water glacially sourced water flows can temporaily increase during a “last gasp” of the glacier. Water access rights for one unit of water input into the Saskatchewan River in Alberta allow Alberta 50%, Saskatchewan 50% of the remainder (25% of input), and Manitoba the remainder (25% of input)). These ratios were determined under drought conditions and useage may need to be reevaluated. This reduction of high elevation glacier water storage is a risk to people around the planet, notably in the Himilayas, Andes and Rockies among others.
8) Climate normals from the thirty year period 1981 to 2010 are usually used in the analysis of climatic characteristics Manitoba. Since most of the rapid changes in the global climate system have occurred in the time period from 2000 to present, it makes sense to also analyze climate based on the older 1971 to 2000 climate normals.
Global-to-Local Scale: Manitoba and EAs
10) The Lake Winnipeg Basin in Manitoba has been experiencing a “wet cycle” for the last 15 years or so. There is no expectation that this will continue as the global climate system changes accelerate. Many climate models (noted previously to underestimate the rate of change) project increased global aridity in the 21st century over much of the planet (most of Africa, the Americas, Australia, Southeast Asia, southern Europe and the Middle East). It seems clear that variability between exceptional drought and severe flooding will increase in many regions.
Global-to-Local Scale: Manitoba and EAs
This includes measuring/monitoring of: