The Arizona STEM Acceleration Project

NBA Finals Predictions

NBA Finals Predictions

An 9th/11th Grade STEM Lesson

Author

Lisa Mills

Date 05/10/2023

Notes for Teachers

This lesson allows students to research basketball statistics for the playoff teams, calculate statistics using Google Sheets, order(rank the data), and make predictions based on the data.

List of Links:

Article How we use stats in basketball

ESPN NBA Stats

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List of Materials

• Poster Paper
• Markers
• Access to Google Sheets and ESPN.com
• Lesson document

Ed Technology Standards

Standard 5. Computational Thinker

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Students develop and employ strategies for understanding and solving problems in ways that leverage the power of technological methods to develop and test solutions.

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9-12.5.a. Students formulate problem definitions suited for technology-assisted methods such as data analysis, abstract models, and algorithmic thinking in exploring and finding solutions.

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Math Standards

3. Statistical and Probabilistic Reasoning involves using the process standards in mathematics to generate new understandings of probability and statistics. The students make interpretations based on, and inferences from, data. The students analyze statistical information and evaluate risk and return to connect mathematical ideas and make informed decisions. The students use multiple representations to communicate effectively the results of real data analysis from current events, the critical analysis of published statistical studies, and may include student-generated statistical studies. Statistical problem solving is an investigative process that involves four components:

• Formulate questions that can be addressed with data and collect, organize, and display relevant data to answer them;
• Select and use appropriate statistical methods to analyze data;
• Develop and evaluate inferences and predictions that are based on data; and
• Understand and apply basic concepts of probability. (GAISE Report, 2007)

This set of standards was developed from the GAISE (Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education) report and will call for students to:

• Gain insight about a solution to a statistical question by describing features of the data through the use of graphical and tabular representations and numerical summaries.
• Develop probability models to describe the long-run behavior of observations of a random variable.
• Recognize probability as an essential tool of statistics and understand the role of probability in statistical reasoning.
• Draw appropriate conclusions from data in ways that acknowledge random variation, and acknowledge potential limitations and bias.

Objective(s):

Today we will research, record, and calculate basketball statistics.

We will analyze teams, their competitiveness, and predict their longevity in the playoff process.

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Agenda (3 days)

Day 1 - Research and record the specified statistics for each team.

Day 2 - Enter the data in Google Sheets, calculate the required stats, sort the data by conference and rank the teams from highest to lowest.

Day 3 - Analyze the sorted data as a cumulative score for each time to predict the four conference final teams and the two finals teams.

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Intro/Driving Question/Opening

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What are some qualities that you hear basketball commentators talk about when announcing the games?

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How do you measure or quantify “good ball movement”? or “poor ball movement”?

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Let’s take a look at some basketball statistics to see what they are actually measuring. Assists on field goals % may seem like just another statistic to record. But what it represents is how often more than one person is touching the ball before scoring which equates to “good ball movement”.

The author quantifies this as greater than 65% of the time.

Hands-on Activity Instructions

• Day 1 Students work in pairs to research the requested data sets and complete the assignment.
• Day 2 Students enter the data in Google Sheets and sort and rank the data for comparison by conference.
• Day 3 Students analyze the data in pairs and discuss which statistics had the greatest impact in the playoffs. Students make their selections and post their predictions.

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Student-Made Posters

Assessment

NBA Playoff Stats Activity

Basketball Data Google Sheets

Differentiation

Students can use the built-in data functions so calculations are not cumbersome.

A recording of the steps to use the data sorting functions, the average function, and how to write a calculation formula in Google Sheets could be embedded in the assignment.

Remediation

Extension/Enrichment

Students could develop a better, more robust model to track teams late in the season and predict the NBA conference and finals teams next year.

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Students could offer ideas about how to improve the model, what its shortcomings are, and what qualities are difficult to predict.