Moving towards net zero and farming systems fit for the future�Dr Nicola D Cannon (Nicky)�Professor of Agriculture�Specialism in agronomy

https://ceobs.org/ukraine-conflict-environmental-briefing-the-climate-crisis/

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https://ceobs.org/ukraine-conflict-environmental-briefing-the-climate-crisis/

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Ukraine climate policy before 2022

https://ceobs.org/ukraine-conflict-environmental-briefing-the-climate-crisis/

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• Ukraine’s economy was carbon intensive prior to 2022 esp energy, industry & ag
• Economic downturn ‘helped’ Ukraine reach target emission reductions from 942.8 MT CO2 in 1990 to 327.3 in 2021
• In 2016, Ukraine ratified the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions by 40% from the 1990 levels (this allowed for economic growth)
• In 2021 submitted 2030 climate targets for UNFCCC aiming to slightly reduce emissions but allow economic growth
• In mid 2020 Ukraine announced it would align itself to the European Green New Deal

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https://ceobs.org/ukraine-conflict-environmental-briefing-the-climate-crisis/

https://ecodozor.org/

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Map indicating areas of high risk, which combines air pollution, water pollution, climate and nuclear risks

https://ecodozor.org/

Ukraine is warming….

https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/ukraine/climate-data-historical

The country needs to be prepared for a changing climate

https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/ukraine/climate-data-historical

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World Bank 2014

World Bank 2014

A new vision for Ukraine

https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/The-Green-Phoenix-Framework-a-climate-positive-plan-for-economic-recovery-in-Ukraine.pdf

https://ahdb.org.uk/carbon

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Net zero is the sum of emissions is equal to the sum of sequestration

https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/The-Green-Phoenix-Framework-a-climate-positive-plan-for-economic-recovery-in-Ukraine.pdf

https://www.statista.com/statistics/438967/fertilizer-consumption-globally-by-nutrient/

What does a t of CO2 look like?

https://projectblue.blob.core.windows.net/media/Default/Imported%20Publication%20Docs/AHDB%20Cereals%20&%20Oilseeds/Arable%20Focus/2023/Arable%20Focus%20(Winter%202023)%20V2.pdf

Key messages for Ukraine….

Wetter winters

Drier and hotter summers

Climate Knowledge Portal (2023)

Ukraine. Building Climate Resilience in Agriculture and Forestry

World Bank 2023

FAO (2022)

Green and climate resilient agriculture

FAO 2021

Agricapture CO2 (2023)

World Bank (2014)

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/755621468319486733/pdf/918500WP0UKRAI0E0Box385344B00OUO090.pdf

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https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/755621468319486733/pdf/918500WP0UKRAI0E0Box385344B00OUO090.pdf

Ukraine's threats from climate change……

• Aridisation in southern regions
• Floods
• Wildfires
• Heat waves
• Long term sea level rises

https://ceobs.org/ukraine-conflict-environmental-briefing-the-climate-crisis/

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https://en.ecoaction.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/water-is-coming-double.pdf

Why did the Aral sea shrink?

How to build agriculture back better

• Change farming systems and expectations
• Education on regenerative practices
• Investment in no till equipment
• Natural fertility building
• Reducing soil erosion
• Become more resilient

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References

Agricapture CO2 (2023). https://agricaptureco2.eu/the-six-principles-of-regenerative-farming-why-are-they-important/

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AHDB (2023). Various. https://ahdb.org.uk/knowledge-library/arable-focus-the-journal-for-cereals-and-oilseeds

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CEOBS (2023). https://ceobs.org/ukraine-conflict-environmental-briefing-the-climate-crisis/

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Climate Change Knowledge Portal (20203). https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/ukraine/climate-data-historical

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FAO (2021). Green and climate resilient agriculture. https://www.fao.org/3/cb6978en/cb6978en.pdf

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FAO (2022). Ukraine: Impact of the war on agriculture and rural livlihoods in Ukraine – Findings of a nationwide rural household survey. https://www.fao.org/3/cc3311en/cc3311en.pdf

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World bank (2014). Ukraine: Soil fertility to strengthen climate resilience. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/755621468319486733/pdf/918500WP0UKRAI0E0Box385344B00OUO090.pdf

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World Bank (2023). Ukraine. Building Climate Resilience in Agriculture and Forestry https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/893671643276478711/pdf/Ukraine-Building-Climate-Resilience-in-Agriculture-and-Forestry.pdf

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Zagoruichyka et al. (2023). The Green Phoenix Framework: Climate-Positive Plan for Economic Recovery in Ukraine . Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment | Working Paper No. 23-03 | 21 June 2023 ISSN 2732-4214 (Online)

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