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Forecasting wildlife strike risk for

low-altitude aircraft operations

SAFESKIES

May 2026

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Jeff Follett & Jeff McKee

skyfaunasytems.com

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Aviation Revolutions

Next Revolution

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM)

Many Protagonists

Soon

2

Second Revolution Powered Flight

Wright Bros.

USA , 1900s

Third Revolution

Jet Age

Sir Frank Whittle

UK, 1930s

First Airliner

First Revolution

Lighter Than Air (LTA) flight

Montgolfier Bros.

France

1780s

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Aircraft-Wildlife Conflict Index

Aircraft Movement Rate (ACMR)

Animal Movement Rate (AMR)

# aircraft per unit time
Aircraft type

Frontal area?
Material?

Aircraft operations

Phase of flight
Altitude
Speed

# of birds per unit time
Wildlife type (species)

Mass
Flock size

Species operations

Ability to avoid strikes
Altitude
Speed/Direction

*

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First principles

Mitigation measures that can be implemented:

Fly at maximum allowed heights.
Strengthen aircraft components such as windshields/rotors.
Keep speeds <80 knots under high bird densities.
Aircraft lighting (pulsating lights with UV component).
Bird-detecting radar for flight planning and real-time warnings.

When thinking of first principles, we use the idea of an aircraft-wildlife conflict index – focuses on the air where a collision may occur and attempts to predict the likelihood and consequence

Area of focus to this point – arrival and departure corridor

The result of this presentation is not a formula you can fill in, but instead a framework with some variables in which you can assess as things change

ACMR is the focus of this presentation

Aircraft Movement Rate (ACMR) *Animal Movement Rate (AMR)

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AAM and Wildlife Hazards

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Volcopter

Embraer X

Cessna 172

EC 135

Joby eVTOL

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AAM and Wildlife Hazards

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Adapted from: Panchal et al. 2022.

Type	Multicopter	Lift + Cruise	Tilt Rotor	Fixed wing	Helicopter
Example	VoloCity VoloRegion	Embraer X (Eve)	Joby	Cessna 172	Eurocopter EC135
Frontal Area (ft²)	300-1,075	550-1,650	530-800	322	56-880
Cruise Speed (knots)	60-100	130	174	124	137
Cruise Altitude (ft) AMSL	2,500	2,600-3,300	8,000	3,000-9,000	1,000-3,000
MTOW (lbs)	1984	2204	4001	2449	6393
Rotors/propellers	18	10	6	1	1
Airworthiness Standard for wildlife	?	?	Part 29 and 35	Part 23	Part 27

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Phase of Flight

Damaging strikes by flight phase

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Most FW strikes on approach, climb, or on ground for FW, when they are in the bird rich zone (below 4500 feet – 94% of strikes)

Most helicopter strikes en-route – 78% of strikes

Interesting to note

Average speed of strikes for FW and helicopter similar for enroute strikes

Average altitude of strike twice as high for FW, lending support for flying higher

This means that the operation of AAM (more like FW vs helicopter) likely to change the risk profile

reflects the difference in exposure X speed for FW vs RW ops at increasing altitudes. RW OPs commonly go into enroute cruise at 1000-1500' and so spend a longer times at those alts than FW. FW tend to climb through those altitudes quickly to establish cruise at >5000', well outside the strike zone

FW n= 12,286

Helicopter n = 4,053

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Altitude

Damaging strikes by altitude

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Speed

Damaging strikes by speed

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Speed

Damaging strikes by speed for fixed wing aircraft on takeoff

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Frontal Area and Design

13.7 m

10.2 m

10 m

MTOW 3200kg

MTOW 2900kg

Q Zodiac 10

EC135

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Aircraft-Wildlife Conflict Index

Aircraft Movement Rate (ACMR)

Animal Movement Rate (AMR)

# aircraft per unit time
Aircraft type

Frontal area?
Material?

Aircraft operations

Phase of flight
Altitude
Speed

# of birds per unit time
Wildlife type (species)

Mass
Flock size

Species operations

Ability to avoid strikes
Altitude
Speed/Direction

*

Success is operationalizing the information to better predict and adapt prior to accidents

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Confounding nature of this analysis

Normalizing for movements of different aircraft types

Taking into account the complexities of specific situation (Masked lapwing facing down a 747)

Incomplete data or non-standardized approaches such as pulsing lights

Using proxies – vehicle speeds and lack of birds – but perhaps not present

Behavioral responses to aircraft approaching at 3 degrees rather than 60 degrees

So, first principles are a good place to start

Then assess your actual situation and use measures in these columns as ways to finetune your analysis and predictions

Data collection that would help

Accurate detail on aircraft operations at time of strike

Manufacturer data on materials, dimensions, frontal area

More detail in NWSD on aircraft materials, dimensions, performance, etc. to better compare

More data on the total number of movements by aircraft type below 4,000 foot

More urban wildlife information

More detail on flight corridors and flight planning

Fine resolution wildlife monitoring and tracking

We can refine the first principles

What data inputs do we need?

Electric, quiet flight
Within urban area movements – wildlife presence

Do AAM aircraft require differing temporal and spatial scales?

Enroute – landscape scale monitoring
Flights of <15 minutes and low altitude

How do we collect that data, collate store and analyze it?

Strike reporting in a completely decentralized system

How to fuse and integrate cross disciplinary data sets to better predict those areas most likely to have aircraft-wildlife conflict?

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Thank you��Questions?

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Jeff Follett

Principal

jfollett@skyfaunasystems.com

skyfaunasytems.com