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Anticipating the Evolution of Warfare

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

Chief, Wargame Development and Education

Air Force Research Laboratory

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Case Number AFRL 06-0060

Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

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Disclaimer I

The views expressed in this briefing are those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent the views of the Air Force Research Laboratory or the United States Air Force.

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Disclaimer II

  • Forecasting is an inexact science
  • Forecasts including the actions of thinking adversaries make weather forecasting look easy

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My Bio

  • DoD Civil Servant – previous positions
    • Professor of Wargaming, ACSC
    • Research Associate, SAAS
  • Col USAFR (ret.) - USAFR Assignments
    • Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate
    • Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
  • Author/speaker
    • Co-author Gulf War Fact Book
    • Many articles, chapters, hundreds of talks

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Overview

  • Forecasting the Future 101
    • Insights from history
  • Forecasting the Future 201
    • Insights from trends, limits and tipping points
  • Forecasting the Future 301
    • Complex interactions
  • Forecasting the Future 401, US Military
    • Decision Vortex, Future Envelope, Wargaming

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Forecasting the Future 101 �Insights From History

I know of no way of judging of the future but by the past.

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Patrick Henry

23 March 1775

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Looking for Analogies

  • “Victorian Internet” > “CNN Effect”
  • Musket to Rifle > Dumb Bombs to Smart Bombs

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The Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

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Forecasting the Future 201�Trends, Limits & Tipping Points

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Forecasting the Future 201�Trends, Limits & Tipping Points

1975

1985

1995

2005

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Forecasting the Future 201�Trends, Limits & Tipping Points

Hours Spent Playing D&D

1975

1985

1995

2005

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Forecasting the Future 201�Trends, Limits & Tipping Points

Hours Spent Playing D&D

1975

1985

1995

2005

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Forecasting the Future 201�Trends, Limits & Tipping Points

1950

1960

1970

1980

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Forecasting the Future 201�Trends, Limits & Tipping Points

Price of VCRs vs Sales

1950

1960

1970

1980

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Forecasting the Future 301�Complex Interactions

  • Intellectual big picture approach
    • The World is Flat, Thomas L. Friedman
  • Modeling/simulation approach
    • CIA’s open source global trends projections
  • Curve fitting history
    • Numbers, Predictions & War – Col Trevor Dupuy

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The Future 401, US Military�Meeting Needs, Exploiting Opportunities

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  • The Decision Vortex
  • Defining an Envelope of Probable Futures
  • “Title 10” Wargaming

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The Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

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The Future 401, US Military�Meeting Needs, Exploiting Opportunities

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  • The Cycle could not explain evolution of atomic theory

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The Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Execution

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The Cycle �History to Application

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

Wargame

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The Future 401, US Military�Anticipating Needs, Exploiting Opportunities

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  • The Cycle could not explain evolution of atomic theory - wargaming helped but…
  • More forces at work

External Factors

Internal Factors

Understanding of History

Expectation of Future

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The Future 401, US Military�Meeting Needs, Exploiting Opportunities

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Defining an Envelope of Probable Futures

  • Define key variables
    • Rates of growth, tech, instability
  • Estimate 90% limits of each variable
  • Define the “envelope” of probable futures
  • Assess options against entire, or representative subsets of, the envelope

While most of your futures will be “wrong” your “envelope” should include the real future

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The Future 401, US Military�Meeting Needs, Exploiting Opportunities

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“Title 10” Wargaming

  • Adaptation of Operational Wargaming
  • Subject of separate talk.

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So… My Projections

  • Invisible Battlefield > Invisible Theater
    • Increased effort at CCD
    • Unconventional forces
  • High Tech > World Tech
    • COTS to weapons
    • Tighter tech decision loop
  • Dispersion Continues
    • Gettysburg to Central Front to ?
    • Joint smaller – lead by more junior

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Conclusion

There are many paths to gaining insights

  • Forecasting the Future 101
    • Insights from history
  • Forecasting the Future 201
    • Insights from trends, limits and tipping points
  • Forecasting the Future 301
    • Complex interactions
  • Forecasting the Future 401, US Military
    • Decision Vortex, Future envelope, wargaming

None are foolproof, however…

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…in war the penalties for NOT anticipating the future are so great we need every edge we can get.