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Not All Warming is Equal

Data Puzzle

Updated 10/2024

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Investigative Question:

Do the places on Earth where temperatures are increasing the most also have the greatest increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide?

What You Will Be Doing:

Analyze and interpret global temperature and carbon dioxide data to determine which parts of Earth are experiencing the greatest changes in temperature and carbon dioxide.
Construct a model to explain how the places on Earth where atmospheric CO₂ is increasing the most are different from the places that are experiencing the greatest rise in temperatures.

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Opening Scenario

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is a gas that we frequently hear about on tv, in school, among other places…But why should we care about CO₂?

What do you already know about CO₂?

Where does it come from?
Where does it go?
What does it do?

Be prepared to share your thinking with the class.

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Dr. Jen Kay monitors changing global temperatures

Dr. Jen Kay, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder, studies the factors (including but not limited to atmospheric CO₂) contributing to the rise in global temperatures.
Dr. Kay knows that these rising temperatures are caused by the burning fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas) by humans, which release of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases into Earth’s atmosphere.
Dr. Kay also knows that some parts of the Earth are warming faster than others…but why? Could it have something to do with atmospheric carbon dioxide?

Let’s dig into Dr. Kay’s research to learn more!

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Puzzle Plot Reading

Teacher note: Distribute pages 1-2 of student worksheet

Instructions

Learn more about Dr. Kay’s research by reading the Puzzle Plot text individually or as a whole class. When reading the text, be sure to complete the following tasks:

Circle the investigative question the scientists are seeking to answer
Underline similarities between the reading and the opening scenario (be ready to discuss)
Annotate the change in surface CO₂ map

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Discuss the change in surface atmospheric CO₂ map as a whole class

Stop and Jot:

Circle the parts of the map where surface atmospheric CO₂ increased the most
Put an X on the parts of the map where surface atmospheric CO₂ increased the least

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Turn and Talk

In the opening scenario you were asked to share what you already knew about carbon dioxide.

After reading the Puzzle Plot, did you learn anything knew about carbon dioxide? Did anything surprise you?

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Identifying Important Science Ideas

Teacher note: Distribute page 3 of student worksheet

Instructions

Now that you’ve read the Puzzle Plot, it’s time to summarize the important science ideas presented in the text by completing the following tasks:

Why do you think surface CO₂ concentrations have increased by more in the United States, China, and Europe than in other parts of the world?
Record the investigative question
Make a prediction

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Predicting Temperature

Based on the spatial patterns you observed in the change in surface atmospheric CO₂ across the globe, predict the change in surface temperature across the globe over the same time period.

Draw your prediction and describe your reasoning.

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Data source: NAWiE Data Puzzle

Logo

https://cires.colorado.edu/outreach/

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Data Analysis

How does Dr. Kay get her data?

Dr. Kay designs and runs climate models. Climate models are computer simulations that use mathematical equations that are based on known Earth system processes to predict past, present, and future climate conditions the transfer of energy and materials through the climate system.

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Let’s look at some data collected by these from climate models….that show how temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations have changed from the early 1900s to the early 2000s

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Change in Earth’s surface temperature map

Teacher note: Distribute page 4 of student worksheet

Instructions: Highlight/annotate the surface temperature map on page 4 of your student worksheet to address the following questions:

What kind of data is shown in the map?

What do you notice about the colors on the map?

This figure shows the change in surface temperature from the 1900-1914 average to the 2000-2014 average. The map was created by Dr. Jen Kay.

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Think: Start to analyze

Discuss the following question as a whole class:

What are similarities and differences between these two maps?

What patterns do you see?

In each map? In both maps?

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Wonder: Start to interpret

Discuss the following question as a whole class:

What could the patterns mean?

How could these patterns occur?

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Data Analysis

Teacher note: Distribute page 5 of student worksheet

Refer to the graph to...

Answer questions #4-5 on your student worksheet to revise your initial prediction for the investigative question,

“Are the places on Earth where atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased the most also the same places where temperatures have increased the most?”

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Final Model Construction

Now that we’ve gathered some evidence, it’s time to construct a final model to explain the investigative question, “Are the places on Earth where atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased the most also the same places where temperatures have increased the most?”

Our models (annotated sketches) must show:

Where surface temperatures on Earth warming most rapidly.
Where surface atmospheric CO₂ concentrations increased the most.

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Before you begin…

Turn and Talk

Relevant parts/concepts

How could you represent changes in surface temperature around the globe?
How could you show changes in surface atmospheric carbon dioxide around the globe?

Data and Evidence

What evidence from the Puzzle Plot and/or graphs (e.g., numbers) could you add to your model?

Investigative Question: Are the places on Earth where atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased the most also the same places where temperatures have increased the most?

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Final Model Construction

Teacher note: Distribute page 6 of student worksheet

Instructions

It’s time to construct your model (annotated sketch)! Remember your models must show:

Where temperatures on Earth warming most rapidly.

Where surface atmospheric CO₂ concentrations increased the most.

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Gallery Walk and Reflection

What similarities and differences do you see across the models? Are there things you’d like to add to your model?

As you walk, reflect on how your initial prediction may or may not have changed…

Be prepared to share your thinking with the group.

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Digging deeper

Teacher note: Distribute page 7 of student worksheet

There are fewer than 4 million people that live in the Arctic and the region contributes a very small amount of CO₂ to the atmosphere. Therefore, it’s safe to say that that warming in this region is in part caused by others at lower latitudes (USA, China, Europe).

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Digging deeper

So what is it?

7a. What factors may be contributing the rapid warming in the Arctic?

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Digging deeper

7b. How do you think the rapid warming in the Arctic might be impacting living (people, plants, animals) and nonliving (sea ice, permafrost) parts of the Arctic?

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Digging deeper

7c. What questions would you ask Dr. Jen Kay about the rapid warming in the Arctic and the impacts of this warming on the living and nonliving parts of the Arctic?