2 of 21

“Executive Order 14072 directed the agencies to analyze the threats to mature and old-growth forests on Federal lands, including from wildfires and climate change (USFS 2024).”

Objectives

Evaluate threats to Dry MOG forests (fire, insects/disease, logging, climate change)

Determine what threats can be reduced by appropriate management

(best available science, confidence levels)

Recommend management approaches that meet both EO 14072 & EO 14008

(protect 30% of lands and waters by 2030)

Reuters

3 of 21

Confidence Terminology	Degree of confidence in being correct
Very high confidence	At least 9 out of 10 chance
High confidence	About 8 out of 10 chance
Medium confidence	About 5 out of 10 chance
Low confidence	About 2 out of 10 chance
Very low confidence	Less than 1 out of 10 chance

Best Available Science & Confidence Levels: IPCC Working Group 2007

4 of 21

K. Schaffer

NPS.gov

Fire Resistance (thick bark, high crowns)

Fire Resilience (“seed rains,” epicormic branching, needle flush, sprouting)

What is Resilience?

(very high confidence)

Ecological resilience –capacity to rebound from perturbations via self-organization and return to prior state over time.

Reference conditions - intact ecosystems with rich biodiversity (genes to ecosystems) have highest resilience and most biological-complexity/integrity (Conservation Science).

Restoration – moving an area from low integrity to high integrity compared to reference condition via active and/or passive management approaches.

5 of 21

Threat	Agency (USFS 2024 Threat Analysis)	Conservation Science (not in USFS 2024)
How Defined	Disturbance or stressor contributing to enduring loss or degradation of characteristic conditions, functions MOG	Pulse disturbance – short-lived change agent resets succession creating pathways to MOG (complex early seral) Press disturbance – chronic stressor accumulating spatially & temporally that degrades integrity (e.g., cows, mining, logging, roads, ORVs)
How Viewed	Threat* = net change OG 2000 vs 2020 (very low thresholds, 25% of stand?)	Degradation from human-caused disturbances lowers integrity & viability
How Treated	“Active management” (e.g., forms of logging, burning, roads, fire suppression)	Contain press disturbances via active & passive recovery to maintain integrity

What is a “Threat”?

DellaSala et al. 2022

6 of 21

	Wildfire “Major” Threat (moderate confidence)	Logging “Minor” Threat (very low confidence)
Legacies	Very high levels	Mostly removed (scale/intensity)
Snags	Very high levels	Very low levels
CWD Carbon stores	Very high levels Mostly stored in dead pools and soils	Very low levels Mostly to atmosphere (little wood products)
Understory	Initially low then high	Very low levels
Heterogeneity	Patch mosaics	Homogenized
Early seral MOG recovery	Highly complex Succession to OG if high severity on long rotations	Greatly oversimplified Succession retarded by short logging rotations

Snags = Habitat Stumps = Degradation

7 of 21

Changed, But Not Destroyed by Fire

HJ Andrews

Gila National Forest

8 of 21

All Unlogged Forest Stages Important & Interconnected

Gray et al. 2023

Textbook Successional-Linearity

Successional-Circularity

9 of 21

Binary Segmentation & Mann-Kendall tests, no significance

Increase in high severity (e.g., Stephens, Hessburg, Parks & Abatzaglou)
No trend in high severity (e.g., Law & Waring , Parks, Baker, Odion)
High severity rotations centuries long, within HRV (e.g., Baker, Reilly)
2021-2023 low fire years (analysis underway)
Differences in methodologies/stats, timelines, subregions

Assumption: High Fire Severity is an Increasing MOG “Threat”

(low-moderate confidence, equivocal findings)

Western Dry Pine, Moist, Subalpine High Severity (no trend annual high severity, Baker 2023)

10 of 21

Assumption: High Severity Patch Sizes Increasing

(low-moderate confidence, equivocal findings)

Most interiors of largest patches within close proximity (<100m) of seed sources (DellaSala et al. 2019)
78% of high severity fires within close proximity (90m) of seed sources (Baker 2023)

No trend in largest patches (MTBS: 1984-2015)

11 of 21

Assumption: Northwest Forest Plan Dry MOG at Risk of High Severity Fire

(low-moderate, 1986-2021, preliminary findings)

Findings:

Conservation Areas on longer high severity rotations and had lower high severity percentages overall
Key point - Reserves built in redundant distributions for resiliency

OGSI by Land Use Allocation (LUA)

OGSI High Severity Rotations (LUA)

OGSI High Severity Percentages (LUA)

12 of 21

Assumption: Dense Forests Increase the Threat of Severe Fires & MOG Losses

(low-medium confidence – not true everywhere)

MOG as Fire Refugia (some examples)

Dense, old-forest canopies burn in lower severities: Klamath-Siskiyou mixed evergreen, Sierra mixed conifer, Colorado mixed conifer (Odion et al. 2004, Odion & Hanson 2006, 2008, Platt et al. 2006, Thompson & Spies 2009, Lesmeister et al. 2021).

Dense, old spotted owl habitat (wet and dry) burn in lower severities compared to plantations, open forests, and post-fire logged landscapes (Odion et al. 2004, Thompson et al. 2007, Thompson et al. 2011, Zald & Dunn 2018, Lesmeister et al. 2019, 2021).

13 of 21

Assumption: Thinning is Effective At Reducing Severe Fire (Climate Driven Events)

(low confidence)

Probability of co-occurrence with any fire is very low (Schoenagel et al. 2017, Law et al. 2022)
Thinning effectiveness short-lived (20-30 years, expensive)
Well-ventilated (canopy thinned) forests do not resist severe fire, weather driven events (Law et al. 2022)
Logging emissions greater than fire emissions and cumulative degradation amplifies fire problem (Harris et al. 2016, Law et al. 2019, Hudiburg et al. 2019, Bartowitz et al. 2022, Law et al. 2022, DellaSala et al. 2022b)

14 of 21

Assumption: Thin + Burn is Effective at Lowering Tree Mortality from Severe Fire

(AZ/NM dry national forests, preliminary analysis, low confidence)

Findings:

>75% cumulative mortality in thinned areas, with/wo Rx burning
Prescribed burning alone lowest tree mortality

Methods:

Cumulative tree mortality: treatment + wildfire (2000-2020) – based on high resolution satellite imagery, canopy change
FACTS database delineate unmanaged vs treatment
365,000 ha study area

15 of 21

Example of Excessive Thinning Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest (preliminary analysis)

2017: pre-treatment

2022: post-treatment

16 of 21

Assumption: Insect Outbreaks Linked to Severe Fire are Combined Threats

(low confidence)

Beetle mortality not linked to high severity fire 1-2 years post-tree kill across multiple regions (Kulankowski & Veblen 2007, Bond et al. 2009, Harvey et al. 2012, Black et al. 2013, Donato et al. 2013, Hart et al. 2015, Meigs et al. 2016, Six et al. 2014, 2018).

Management Efficacy

- Before outbreak mixed effects (see above)

- During outbreak ineffective (see above)

- Outbreak survivors have genetic adaptations (Six et al. 2018)

- Even-aged management amplifies outbreaks (see above)

Climate change is the main driver (multiple studies)

Bark-beetle smorgasbord!

17 of 21

� Assumption: Large/Old Tree Logging Component of Resilience (“Fuels Rx,” “Restoration”) (low confidence)�

Large tree blue-markings, Applegate, OR, BLM

(2018-2022 sales)

Large tree removals, Malheur, OR

(2020-2021 sales)

Photos: L. Ruediger, P. Hood

Large tree removals, Malheur NF

(2020-2021 sales)

18 of 21

Threat	Governing Drivers	Inappropriate Response	Appropriate Response
Severe fire	Extreme fire weather (heat domes, drought, high winds)	Logging, thinning, type conversions	Cut logging emissions, protect MOG as refugia
Insect outbreaks	Climate change amplified by intensive logging	Even-aged logging, thinning, post-disturbance logging	Manage for heterogeneity, maintain survivors
Logging	Economics, reliance on logging for “resilience,” “restoration,” “fuels” Rx	Even-aged management, large/old tree logging, excessive understory removal	Protect large/old trees, thin small trees from below, Rx burning

Summary of MOG Threat Analysis & Responses

19 of 21

Road Network for Active Management is a Threat

(very high confidence)

>380,000 miles NF roads
Circumnavigate 16 x around planet
Fire ignitions, water quality, fragmentation, weed vectors
More ”active management” = more roads

Biscuit postfire salvage, Rogue-Siskiyou NF

20 of 21

Active Restoration (eco-resilience, very high confidence)

Cultural and/or prescribed burning
Thin small young trees from below in places
Work with wildfire for eco-benefits
Road closure/obliteration
Culvert retrofits for rain on snow events
Reintroduce keystone species (e.g., beaver)

Passive Restoration (eco-resilience, very high confidence)

Protect MOG and large/old trees from logging
Reduce cumulative stressors (cows, ORVs, mining)
Road, campground closures during extreme fire weather
Minimize logging emissions
Suspend MOG logging to let EIS process play out in good faith
Resilience is much more than cutting trees

MOG as Best Nature-Based Solution:

EO 14072 (MOG conservation) + EO 14008 (30 x 30) to End Forest Degradation

dominick@wild-heritage.org

21 of 21

Source: www.slideshare.net/WorldResources/virgin-forests-southern based on Greeley 1925

While the Past is Gone, The Future is Now Uncertain

Going

<5% all lands

forests maturing in places

~50 million federal MOG acres lack protections (DellaSala et al. 2022)
Large/old trees included in thinning sales
Trump’s Executive Order to increase logging on federal lands still in place (next president?)
Full stop now on MOG logging (200 scientists letter to the president)