ToC Design Guidance�Bus 2

Brian Belcher, Enrico Bonaiuti and Keith Child

October 21, 2021

Agenda

• ToC in OneCGIAR
• Development and Use of ToCs
• Lessons from Bus 1
• Building Initiative and WP ToCs
• Presenting ToCs in Proposal Template
• How ToCs will be Evaluated
• Support for ToC Development
• Discussion and Questions

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Systems Approach in CGIAR PRMF�

• CGIAR contributes to impact within systems in combination with other actors and processes
• Strategic planning in context of political and practical considerations
• Initiative design and delivery need to consider who will use research and other outputs
• How can Initiative facilitate and advance research use and influence?
• Need tools for MEL
• The Initiative (incl. WP) ToC should serve as the central organizing framework for the overall proposal

What is a Theory of Change?

A theory of change (ToC) is an “explicit, testable model of how and why change is expected to happen along an impact pathway in a particular context. A basic research-for-development (R4D) ToC identifies the context and key actors in a system and specifies the causal pathways and mechanisms by which the research aims to contribute to outcomes and impacts.” (MELCOP, 2019).

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Key Concepts and Definitions

• Research cannot directly “cause” impact in complex systems
• Research can produce knowledge, technology and other innovations
• Research can provide services: capacity building, networking, empowerment, technical support
• Research outputs (products and services) inform, enable, facilitate, support, or otherwise influence other system actors and processes
• Those system actors and processes contribute to further actions and impact

sphere of influence

sphere of control

sphere of interest

System Actors: Individuals or organizations operating as part of the system the Initiative aims to influence, whose actions can advance or impede the Initiative’s aims.

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Impact

A durable change in the condition of people and their environment brought about by a chain of events or change in how a system functions to which research, innovations and related activities have contributed.

Outcome

A change in knowledge, skills, attitudes and/or relationships (KASR), which manifests as a change in behavior in particular system actors, to which research outputs and related activities have contributed.

Activities

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The actual work done by the Program, including background scoping, literature review, data collection, analysis, technology development and testing, and reporting, as well as communications and engagement with relevant stakeholders and Partners

Outputs

The knowledge, technical or institutional advances produced by CGIAR research, as well as networking, engagement and capacity development activities.

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Examples of outputs include new research methods, policy analyses, gene maps, new crop varieties and breeds, institutional innovations, or other products of research work.

Partners: Organizations or individual stakeholders that the Initiative collaborates with to achieve its goals.

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End-of Initiative Outcome

An outcome that is challenging but reasonable to expect within the timeframe and resources of the program and observable at the conclusion of an Initiative (or program), and is therefore testable during post-project evaluation.

Assumptions

Explanation of the causal logic

Research for Development Theory of Change

Building a ToC: A highly iterative process

• Define the impact targets
• Specify necessary high-level outcomes (actors x actions)
• Identify main precursor outcomes (actors x actions)
• Identify provisional activities and outputs (products and services)
• Analyze and document contextual and theoretical assumptions (hypotheses)
• Review, revise and refine ToC to ensure causal logic for each step is sound
• Identify End-of-Initiative Outcomes
• Model higher-level Outcomes
• Review and assess for gaps in the overall causal logic

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Building a ToC: A highly interactive process

• Need for input, vetting and validation from partners and other stakeholders
• ToC development process as important as the product
• Need to balance the ideal with the practical
• Need to allocate budget for ToC development, review, updating

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Lessons from Bus 1 ToCs

Common areas needing strengthening are:

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• Shift from CGIAR-centric perspective to better link the proposed research to the rest of the world
• More specific research questions, methods, intended outputs
• Clearer identification and specification of outcomes (actor, action, SMART)
• Better explanation of links and synergies between WPs/Initiatives
• Feasible outcomes re time and resources available
• More attention to other supporting activities
• Better explanation of causal logic

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ToC Facilitating Questions �(Appendix B in ToC Guidance)�

1. What is the main problem(s) or development challenge the WP aims to address? (Refer to Initiative and Action Area Challenges and refine as needed. Consider differentiated needs and opportunities to address disadvantaged groups by gender and social class.)
2. What work has been already done to analyze and help address the problem, including in previous CGIAR projects? (This is to help establish the background and rationale for the proposed work.)
3. What impacts and Action Area outcomes will the WP contribute to? (Refer to Impact Areas, and Action Area outcomes)
4. What are the most important processes (ongoing or new) that will be needed to realize the intended impacts? (This is to identify strategically-relevant processes external to the Initiative that the WP will need to engage with; e.g. national policy reform; trade association initiatives; international conventions or commitments.)
5. Who are the most important system actors in these processes, (including other CGIAR WPs/Initiatives,) and what do they need to do to realize the intended impacts?
6. What will motivate those actors to take the needed action(s) (in other words, what is the causal logic that explains the outcomes)? (This is to anticipate and analyze what is needed to inform, support, or otherwise influence actors external to the Initiative.)

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ToC Facilitating Questions (cont.)�(Appendix B in ToC Guidance)�

7. What research is needed to stimulate or support this change process, and why is it important?
8. What will be the main outputs of the WP’s research?
9. What other supporting activities (e.g. capacity development; networking; multi-stakeholder process facilitation; technical support) will the WP undertake and why are they important for realizing intended outcomes?
10. Which partners will the WP work with (including other CGIAR WPs/Initiatives)?
11. What Outcomes of the WP’s work will be realized by the End-of-Initiative (in other words, what system actors will do what differently in whole or in part because of the WP’s work)? Ideally, these should be stated in concrete, measurable terms.
12. What next-level outcomes (i.e. beyond and resulting from end-of-Initiative Outcomes and precursors to the Action Area highest-level outcomes and impacts) are anticipated, recognizing that those outcomes will not be realized within the Initiative time frame.

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Suggested ToC Narrative Outline

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• Challenge statement (Q1) and high-level changes needed (AA Outcomes and Impact Areas) (Q3)
• WP research activities and outputs (Q7&8)
• Other WP supporting activities and outputs (Q9)
• Partnerships – who will the WP work directly (Q10).
• Other system actors the WP aims to engage with, inform, support, or otherwise influence (Q4&5)
• End of Initiative outcomes (Q11)
• Assumptions and causal logic, explaining how and why it is expected that WP outputs will contribute to changes, EoI Outcomes (Q6&9), and on to AA Outcomes (e.g., “Our hypothesis is that if X and Y happen in context A, they will contribute to Z (the outcome or impact).”)

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ToC in Proposal Template

3. Research plans and associated theories of change (ToC)

3.1 Full Initiative ToC

Provide a 1-page ToC diagram and a 500-word max narrative ToC description.

3.1.1 Full Initiative ToC diagram ��

3.1.2 Full Initiative ToC narrative (500 words)

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To complement the Initiative ToC diagram which illustrates how the Work Packages and End-of Initiative (EoI) outcomes contribute to Action Area outcomes, CGIAR Impact Areas and SDG targets, the Initiative ToC narrative provides an explanation of the causal logic leading from scientific research to impact. In particular, the ToC should address the assumptions of how EoI outcomes are expected to lead to Action Area outcomes and CGIAR Impacts.

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3.2.1 1 page diagram per Work Package

3.2.2 Work Package research plans and ToCs �(1000 words not counting table))

Table: not included in 1000-word limit

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ToC in Proposal Template (cont.)

The Science: 500-word narrative:

1. WP research questions, associated scientific methods and key outputs (narrative, or tabular format if preferred)

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The Theory of Change: 500-word narrative:

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2. The causal processes - including approach to scaling (e.g. capacity development; communications, multi-stakeholder processes; policy engagement) - which link research outputs to end-of-Initiative outcomes
3. Key demand, innovation and scaling partners
4. Key WP ToC assumptions and risks (can link to table in Section 7.3 to save word count)
5. Interdependencies and synergies with other Work Packages (and other Initiatives if relevant)
6. Links to Innovation Package and Scaling Readiness Plan
• Measuring and managing performance and results – links to Management, MELIA, Projected Benefits

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Example EoI Outcome Statements

• Researchers and breeders use the superior allelic sequence information from Genebank accessions to edit popular cultivars to improve traits demanded by farmers and consumers.
• Seed-sector actors create profitable seed production lines for the commercialization of gene editing products following stewardship principles and SOPs
• International development assistance organizations design and implement investments to improve equitable access to resources.

How ToCs Will be Evaluated

• CGIAR External Reviews will use the 17 criteria in the ISDC QoR4D Framework (available at: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t0h4pTik2JRC_vbH9rmOqf5-3rm_mjrB/view)

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• The nested ToCs must provide enough detail for an evaluator to appreciate:

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1. Main Impact pathways: What high-level outcomes and impacts does the initiative aim to contribute to and how?

2. Key outputs: what are the main advances in knowledge and/or technology and what are the main process supports (e.g. capacity building; networking; empowerment) the Initiative aims to deliver?

3. Key partners: what organizations and individuals will the Initiative engage with and what role will those actors play in the change process?

4. Other system actors: what other organizations and individuals (beyond partners) will be involved in the change process and how?

5. Key Outcomes: Who will do what differently as a result of the Initiative.

6. Assumptions: What are the contextual and theoretical assumptions underlying the causal logic of the Initiative?

7. Evaluable end-of-program outcomes: What challenging but achievable outcomes/impacts will be realized by the end of the proposed phase of the Initiative?

8. In future evaluations (i.e. after Initiative inception), evaluators will also consider ongoing efforts by the Initiative to review and update the ToC

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Common Areas for Improvement �in TOC Design and Use

• Ensure context and problem analyses are thorough
• Consult adequately with partners and stakeholders
• Ensure that stakeholder values and concerns are understood and addressed
• Think about outputs as products and as services/processes
• Give adequate attention to early outcomes and underlying assumptions
• Distinguish outcomes (i.e. behaviour) from impacts (i.e. change in state)
• Specify outcome by actor or actor group
• Avoid using conjunctions like “and”, which indicate more than one outcome
• Realistically account for other key processes and system actors
• Ensure the causal logic is complete and coherent (no miracles allowed)
• Use ToC to review and revise program design to address key gaps
• Periodically (e.g. annually) review ToC and revise TOC and/or program as needed

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Questions and Discussion