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Climate Toolbox Activities

FUTURE TEMPERATURES

EXPLORE FUTURE TEMPERATURES

NEAR PORTLAND, OREGON

In this activity, we will explore future temperatures of Portland, Oregon by utilizing the Future Climate Analogs Tool in the Climate Toolbox.

Climate Effects

Climate analogs for Portland are those locations that are climatically similar to Portland. Considering Portland’s current climate gives us a set of current day climate analogs, or locations that have climate similar to Portland today. Future climate analogs for Portland are those locations that currently have a climate similar to Portland’s future climate.

Climate Analogs

Definition of Climate

A climate analog needs a definition for the climate of a region. The climate for a location is often considered to be the average temperature or precipitation for a location. Monthly values of temperature and precipitation as shown on a climograph give a signature for the climate of a region. See the Climograph Tool for an example.

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Adaptation

As the climate changes for Portland, Portland will need to adapt in many different ways. By identifying locations that are climate analogs for a future Portland, we can look to how those analog locations are currently making decisions and choices to deal with their climate impacts. These models from other cities serve as examples for how Portland can adapt.

When we live in an area, we understand all the different nuances of the climate that result in impacts to our daily lives. Beyond temperature and precipitation, climate is also the humidity, wind speed/direction, solar radiation and much more. Climate is how long rains last and how long snow typically sits on the ground before melting. It’s the typical growing conditions for plants, the frequency of fire danger, and even typical demands for heating and cooling.

ClimateToolbox.org

Data

FUTURE TEMPERATURES

The future climate data used in this activity comes from daily minimum and maximum temperature data from 20 global climate models and 2 future emission scenarios (RCP4.5, 8.5) from CMIP5 which have been adjusted to better match ground station observations.

Activity

Create a climate data story on future temperatures of Portland.

Prepare a 3-5 min presentation (2 slides) on your story.

To Do

Prepare Slide

To Do

Prepare Slide

Prepare Talking Points

The Facts (Slide 1)

The Meaning (Slide 2)

• 3 maps - historical, 2070-2099 (RCP4.5 / 8.5)
• Add Title, legend, titles for 3 maps

We’ll look at current heat stories from ‘best’ analogs.

• Choose RCP 8.5, 2070-2099 as an extreme future.
• Under ‘Change Map’, change ‘Number of Colors’ from 3 to 10. Change ‘Base Map’ to ‘World Light Gray with Cities and Rivers’.
• Dark green regions are ‘best analogs’. Which regions are realistic future Portlands when considering more than temperature.
• Zoom in to each dark green region and identify a familiar city. These are ‘best’ future analogs.
• Do an internet search on heat-related news stories about some of the cities you identified and clip some impact headlines.

• Current climate impacts at future analog cities give us predictions about what Portland might experience in the future.
• The future is not set in stone. If we reduce emissions (esp. coal), our future could be the RCP 4.5 scenario not the RCP 8.5.
• People live in Portland’s future climate analog cities. Portland residents can adapt to future too.

• 1 map - RCP8.5 2070-2099
• Add bullet & city name to map for ‘best’ analogs
• Add clips of news headlines. Circle key words describing the heat impact in each.

• Go to the Future Climate Analogs Tool (ClimateToolbox.org)
• Choose the NPS location near Portland, OR
• Choose ‘Average Maximum Temperature of the Hottest Month’.
• Choose 1971-2000 Historical Emissions.
• Choose ‘20-Model Mean’
• What do the colors on the map represent?
• Where are the current day climate analogs of Portland’s hottest temperatures? Do these regions seem similar to Portland’s ‘climate’?
• Choose ‘Average minimum temperature of the coldest month’. Where are the current day climate analogs in this case? Do these regions seem similar to Portland’s ‘climate’?
• Choose the variable of “Hottest and coldest month (2 variable combination)’. Do these regions make more sense than previous?
• For 2 variable combo, choose RCP4.5 and step through future time periods to see how the future analogs move geographically. Repeat for RCP8.5. Get screenshots of maps.

Prepare Talking Points

• What regions are current day Portland analogs?
• Where do analogs move for future Portland?