H2: CME STRUCTURE, EVOLUTION AND PROPAGATION THROUGH THE HELIOSPHERE

ROADMAP RECOMMENDATIONS – STATUS OF ACTION TEAMS – FUTURE VISION – WHAT’S ON THIS WEEK

Moderator: Emma Davies

ROADMAP RECOMMENDATIONS

M. Temmer, C. Scolini, I. G. Richardson et al., 2023, “CME propagation through the heliosphere: Status and future of observations and model development”, Advances in Space Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2023.07.003

1. “Improve background solar wind modeling. The outputs from the current background solar wind models have large uncertainties. It is not clear which model performs better under what conditions. In general, we recommend driving a variety of models to obtain uncertainty estimates since we do not yet know the most reliable one.” (H1)
2. “Invest on sophisticated ensemble modeling using different models” (H1 + H2)
3. “Standardize data analysis techniques and metrics; We need a way to intercompare model results and identify whether the problems arise from the inputs or the computations.” (H1 + H2)
4. “Establish regular off-Sun-Earth line observations (e.g., from L4/L5) with complementary instrumentation (following the STEREO paradigm); future mission for 4p coverage of magnetic field to overcome the Bz issue;” (H1 + H2)

5. “Exploit new data streams (e.g., IPS as well as other space-weather observations across the S, H, and G domains, e.g. by the implementation of LOFAR4SW upgrades) and new forecast techniques (e.g. AI, ML, NN, etc)”, (H1 + H2)

M. Temmer, C. Scolini, I. G. Richardson et al., 2023, “CME propagation through the heliosphere: Status and future of observations and model development”, Advances in Space Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2023.07.003

• Identify gaps in the roadmap recommendations
• New ideas, new action topics/teams
• Input from community towards future direction of H2 cluster

ROADMAP RECOMMENDATIONS

• H2-01: CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team 

Leads: Christine Verbeke, christine.verbeke@oma.be; M. Leila Mays, m.leila.mays@nasa.gov

Evaluate where we stand with CME arrival time and impact prediction, establish metrics agreed upon by the community, provide a benchmark against which future models can be assessed against.

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• H2-02: Magnetic Profiles of Interplanetary CMEs 

Lead: Christina Kay, christina.kay@jhuapl.edu

Identify the metrics by which we can assess the quality of a model’s fit to an observational profile, establish a set of well-observed CMEs with in situ profiles from spacecraft near Earth, identifying the general strengths and weaknesses of each in situ magnetic field profile model.

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• H2-03: CME model evaluation through synthetic observations

Lead: Luke Barnard, l.a.barnard@reading.ac.uk

Provide a suite of heliospheric simulations of different CME scenarios propagating through a range of solar wind environments, use synthetic observables derived from these simulations for testing, developing, and comparing other techniques of reconstructing and/or forecasting CME propagation.

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• H2-04: Heliospheric CME Observations to Improve Space Weather Model Validation

Lead: David Barnes, david.barnes@stfc.ac.uk

Use heliospheric CME observations to better inform and constrain CME propagation models, with a focus on utilising upcoming missions (PUNCH), and potential future missions (Vigil-HI, KASI/L4, Solar Polar-orbit Observatory); with an emphasis on polarised brightness measurements and multi-spacecraft techniques.

STATUS OF ACTION TEAMS

continuing 🌞

restarting 🎆

on ice 🧊

NEW ‼️

FUTURE VISION

Advance space weather understanding and capabilities

AMBIENT SOLAR WIND

CME (MAGNETIC) STRUCTURE

CME PROPAGATION

AUTOMATIC DETECTION

SUB-L1 MONITORING

Models + Data

QUALITY ASSESSMENT!

SDO AIA/HMI (source)

COR: SOHO, Vigil, STEREO, Aditya-L1, SWFO, PUNCH

In-situ: PSP, Solar Orbiter, STEREO, planetary missions

HI: PSP, Solar Orbiter, STEREO, PUNCH, Vigil , KASI

Current missions

L1: ACE, Wind, DSCOVR, SOHO, Aditya

Earth Orbit: SDO, GOES-U

Other: PSP, Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, STEREO-A, JUICE

Past missions

MESSENGER, Venus Express, Ulysses, Juno, Helios, many more

In development:

L1: SWFO, IMAP

Earth Orbit: PUNCH

Other: Vigil (L5), HENON (DRO)

Future Concepts:

Other: KASI mission (L4), MIIST (DRO), 4π mission

In-situ: L1 missions, STEREO-A, Solar Orbiter, HENON, MIIST

In-situ: L1 missions, Vigil

RESEARCH

OPERATIONS

Arrival time

CME structure

Different SW regimes

H2-02

Input uncertainties

Isolated/

complex events

H2-04

H2-0?

H2-0?

H2-01

S, H1

WHAT’S ON THIS WEEK

H2-01 Session: CME Scoreboard/ Arrival Times and Impacts

(Leila Mays, Christine Verbeke)

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1. TUESDAY AM1: Progress review; CME Scoreboard updates; Future directions including Mars CME Scoreboard and validation of existing CME Scoreboard.

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• WEDNESDAY AM1: Next steps: Validating the impact of CME arrival predictions and ICME quantities; Sources of arrival time errors; Challenges and future steps in ensemble modelling; operational user requirements for validation studies.

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• TUESDAY PM2. Cross cluster discussion with H1-03, H2-01, H2-02 and G1-06 about integrating with existing Scoreboards: Solar Wind Scoreboard, CME Scoreboard, and Geospace Scoreboard.

WHAT’S ON THIS WEEK

H2-02 Session: The Magnetic Structure of CMEs

(Christina Kay, Emma Davies)

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1. WEDNESDAY AM2: Challenges surrounding predicting expected magnetic field profile of CMEs; Southward component (Bz) is key to accurate forecasts.
• Current capabilities in modeling Bz
• Current capabilities in determining the necessary model inputs (both on a real-time basis and in general)
• Metrics and validation of existing models
• Collaboration with operational centers to encourage the adoption of newer models

WHAT’S ON THIS WEEK

H2-04 Session: Heliospheric CME Observations to Improve Space Weather Model Validation (David Barnes, Emma Davies)

1. TUESDAY AM2: Introduction of the new team and objectives: How can heliospheric imagers be used to provide “in-flight” validation of CME propagation models?; What can we learn from CME propagation models that already make use of HI? Useful parameters; Existing heliospheric CME catalogues and validation; Heliospheric CME signatures constraining CME models.
2. THURSDAY AM2: What benefits will we get from PUNCH? How will enhanced 360-degree FOV and polarised brightness measurements better constrain CME parameters? Future missions with unique vantage points of L4, or polar observations; Multi-spacecraft observations; Establishing a work plan and goals for the team.

WHAT’S ON THIS WEEK