Ice sheets cover Scotland & N. Ireland
Africa: cool, dry & no Lake Victoria
1st agriculture & civilisations
Roman Warm Period
Little Ice Age
Medieval Warm Period
?
2100
4
- 97% of Alpine Glaciers disappear
- 210 mph hurricanes
- Tipping point for collapse of most tropical coral reefs
- 185 mph hurricanes
~2100 - 45 oC heatwave in the UK
- 1 m sea level rise
~2050 – Ice free Arctic Ocean
- 195 mph hurricanes
- AMOC tipping point
Shakun et al
SEA LEVEL RISE
Our planet’s temperature over the last 20,000 & the next 80 years, given current policies
Now (2026)
Temperature Anomaly (oC)
1 in 200 chance
2300 - ~3 m
4.5 oC
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Africa dry: Hamilton & Taylor 1991, L. Victoria dry: Kendall 1969 in Hamilton & Shengji 2024, Sea Level Rise: IPCC AR6
Lake Victoria flows into Nile
Original compilation graph:
Hurricanes – calculated from Poynting 2025
Alpine Glacier’s Weise citing van Tricht et al. 2025
PPT slide created by Patrick Hamilton. I’m interested if you every find this useful for teaching etc. P.b.Hamilton@exeter.ac.uk
Heatwaves – estimated from Kay et al 2025 & current trends
3000 - ~10 m
Last collapse of major Atlantic current (AMOC), rapid cooling of northern hemisphere
- AMOC at 50% – ~ 50 yr to shutdown