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Created by:

Students and Faculty at the University of Michigan School for Environment & Sustainability (SEAS)

Climate Change �and the Future of �Michigan Cherries

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Lesson 1

The curious case of Michigan Cherries

NGSS Objectives:

HS-LS2-2. Use mathematical representations to support and revise explanations based on evidence about factors affecting biodiversity and populations in ecosystems of different scales.

HS-ESS3-1. Construct an explanation based on evidence for how the availability of natural resources, occurrence of natural hazards, and changes in climate have influenced human activity.

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What do you know about

Michigan Agriculture? (Video)

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Introduce/discuss Michigan agriculture: Ask students, “Did you know that Michigan is famous for agriculture? Do you know what kinds of crops Michigan is most famous for? Do you have a favorite food that is grown in Michigan or a memory related to Michigan fruits or vegetables?”

Discuss student answers. Students may talk about cherries and cherry festivals, apples, peaches, grapes, blueberries, corn, trips to Traverse City, apple picking, pumpkin patches, local farms, farmers markets, their home garden, etc.

2. Play short 1 minute Pure Michigan audio clip: “Michigan Agriculture” and ask students,“Did you learn anything new from this video? Did anything surprise you?”

Audio clip mentions that there are 200 varieties of foods grown in MI, 10 million acres of farms, $90 billion contribution by ag. to state economy, employing 1 million people
Discuss student answers and add that Michigan has the 2nd greatest crop diversity in the U.S. (Michigan grows a greater number of different kinds of crops than any state except California.)

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Did you know?

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200 varieties of food are grown in Michigan
10 million acres of crops

Approx. 44,000 sq.ft per acre

$90 Billion added to the state economy
Industry employs about 1 million people
MI has 2nd greatest crop diversity in the U.S. (behind CA)

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What do you know �about Michigan cherries?

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Michigan Cherries

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Michigan is the nation’s #1 producer of tart cherries! (Mostly from the Traverse City area)
75% of U.S. cherries are grown in Michigan!
Michigan cherries are a $72 million dollar industry!

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How could you or others be affected if Michigan’s cherry crop was damaged?

Have you heard of or remembered years when Michigan had a cherry shortage?

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Let’s find out more about an �issue facing Michigan cherry farmers:

Radio Story: Click to Listen

(:23 - 1:16)

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Introduce real-world cherry tree dilemma:

We recommend starting at :23 second mark (because the intro gives too much info away) with “Fruit growers in Northern Michigan grow...” and stopping at 1:16 (before they get into more detail about WHY the cherries bloomed early -- we want students to brainstorm this themselves first.)
Transcript of this part of the story:

“Fruit growers in Northern Michigan grow apples, peaches and wine grapes. But the biggest crop here is tart cherries. More than half of Ken Engle’s 140 acre farm is planted with what he calls “sour cherries.” These trees are the most vulnerable just before their white blossoms unfold, at the so-called “water bud” stage. “What causes the damage is that on a cold night, the moisture that’s in the blossom will actually freeze. It will break the cell wall, and then the blossom is killed.” (Ken Engle) In 2002, a cold snap hit when trees were in that stage and destroyed almost the entire tart cherry crop here. Cherries were wiped out again in 2012, along with most other fruits, because the blossoms came out more than a month early. “Everything was frozen here because we had trees literally with less fruit on them than we normally leave after we’ve shaken them.” (Ken Engle)

Note to teachers about 2002: 2002 was not a particularly warm year (as you will see in graph on slide 11). However, there was a bad frost event when the cherries were in the bud stage, so the cherries were still damaged (even though they did not bloom early).

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Think-Pair-Share:

What happened in 2012?

What happened to the cherries?

Why did it matter that the cherries bloomed early?

“Think-Pair-Share”: Ask students, “What was this radio clip about? What happened to the cherry trees in 2012 and why did this happen? Had you heard about this happening?” (Students think about this question individually (“think”), then discuss in their groups or pairs (“pair”), then share with entire class as teacher writes key points on the board (“share”) and helps students fill in their knowledge as necessary.)

What happened (in short): Cherry trees bloomed earlier in the spring, which made them susceptible to spring frost. The frost damaged nearly the entire crop. (As spring approaches and temperatures get warmer, these warmer temperatures signal to the tree that it is time for its flowers to bloom. If it gets warm very early in the spring and the flowers bloom before the last frost, then those flowers will get damaged by the frost.)

Additional Notes for teachers:

Early blooming may not be a problem in and of itself, but it is a problem because it means the early blooming flowers are at greater risk of spring frosts. The later they bloom in the spring, there is less risk of another frost event.
The damage from frost is even more serious if the flowers are already very developed. They are most hardy during the winter when they are fully dormant. However, as they begin to swell and expand into blossoms, they become less resistant to injury from frost. In other words, a frost event that occurs immediately after bud burst will not have as serious of consequences as one which happens after the flower has developed for a few weeks. (Citation: MSU)

Note about 2002: While 2012 was very warm, 2002 was not a particularly warm year (as you will see in graph on slide 11). However, there was a bad frost event when the cherries were in the bud stage, so the cherries were still damaged (even though they did not bloom early).

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Examine Data Table 1:

Date of Year of Cherry Bloom in Traverse City

What do you notice about this data set?
Do you see any trends?
Do you see any differences between 2012 and the other years?
If so, what might explain these differences?
What other format could we put this data into to better analyze it?

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Explain Julian Days/Date of Year (DOY) format: Scientists often use a date format called “Julian Days,” also known as the ordinal number or “Day of Year” (DOY) format. This is a continuous count of days starting at January 1. So, for example, Jan. 1 is the number 1 in Julian or DOY format. February 4 is the number 35. Note that the numbers are slightly different in leap years. You can print this Julian Day Calendar handout for students to reference (we did not include all 12 months on the handout, only those that are relevant to this unit). This will enable them to find or confirm the Julian Day equivalent of a given date, such as July 20, 1989. We will use this date format to calculate and graph phenology data.

Ask students to work in groups to examine Data Table 1 (Handout)

What do they notice about the data?
Do they see any trends?
Anything different about 2012?
If so, what might explain these differences?
What format could we put this data into to better analyze it?

Help students realize that graphing the data could make it easier to visualize the trends.

Source: Cherry Bloom data is from NW Michigan Horticultural Center - http://agbioresearch.msu.edu/uploads/396/36740/fullbloomdates.pdf

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Bloom Date over Time

2012

Show and discuss Graph 1 - Year vs. Bloom Date: The problem we first heard about through the radio story was that cherries bloomed early in 2012, destroying the crop. We looked at the data set, but how can our graphs help us understand this information even better? What does this graph tell us?

What is the x axis showing? What is the y axis showing? What are the units?

Discuss how it is common practice to put the independent variable on the X axis, dependent on the Y axis.

What is the range of variability in blooming date? (From earliest date to latest date)
What is the overall trend? (Blooming earlier or later?) Is it steep or fairly flat? What does this mean?

Students could note that the dots start closer together and become more spread out in later years

What do you notice about the 2012 dot?
How is this graph useful to us? Does the data agree with the radio story saying that blooming dates are getting earlier?

Helps us see if there is a trend over time in when the cherry blossoms bloom.

Explaining Julian Days/Date of Year (DOY) format: Scientists often use a date format called “Julian Days,” also known as the ordinal number or “Day of Year” (DOY) format. This is a continuous count of days starting at January 1. So, for example, Jan. 1 is the number 1 in Julian or DOY format. February 4 is the number 35. Note that the numbers are slightly different in leap years. You can print this Julian Day Calendar handout for students to reference. This will enable them to find or confirm the Julian Day equivalent of a given date, such as July 20, 1989. We will use this date format to calculate and graph phenology data.

Note to teachers about 2002: 2002 was not a particularly warm year (as you will see in graph on slide 11). However, there was a bad frost event when the cherries were in the bud stage, so the cherries were still damaged (even though they did not bloom early).

Source: Cherry Bloom data is from NW Michigan Horticultural Center - http://agbioresearch.msu.edu/uploads/396/36740/fullbloomdates.pdf

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What could be causing earlier bloom dates in some years?
What factors might drive the cherry’s annual cycle?

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Research in groups & with textbooks:

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What factors might be driving or influencing annual cycles of other plants or animals you are familiar with?

Need help coming up with ideas?

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Give Evidence and Reasoning �for your potential explanations:

Weather & climate

temperature
precipitation
wind

Sunlight

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Farming methods
Soil quality
Pollination
Other ideas?

Discuss the ideas that students came up with. This list may encompass many of their ideas, but there may be others that students came up with as well.
Ask students to practice CLAIM - EVIDENCE - REASONING:

What is their claim?
Evidence for that claim?
Reasoning behind that claim?

Have students discuss what potential explanation they think might be strongest. Students do not have to agree.
Ask students: What if it had to do with temperature? Would you expect temperatures to be getting warmer or cooler if cherries were blooming earlier? Why?

Note for teachers:

Students might also say that it could it also be something else other than temperature (day length, precipitation, etc). These could indeed influence cherry tree growth, but bloom date in this case is based on temperature.

Example: Day length does not change from year to year, so it cannot explain a CHANGE in the bloom date. Additionally, day length is more relevant in the fall, not the spring: as the days become shorter it signals plants that winter is coming and they start getting ready for it (leaf fall and other physiological changes to avoid freezing).

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What additional evidence would we need to support that claim?

Let’s investigate the hypothesis that warmer temperatures cause earlier bloom dates.

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Supporting Claims with Evidence

Students brainstorm what evidence - observations, data, etc, they would need to support that hypothesis/claim.

Help students realize that if we have data about the temperatures in those same years, we could see if the temperature and bloom data have a relationship.

Image: http://www.27east.com/news/article.cfm/East-End/108944/The-Science-Of-Phenology

Note for teachers:

Students might also say that it could it also be something else other than temperature (day length, precipitation, etc). These could indeed influence cherry tree growth, but bloom date in this case is based on temperature.

Example: Day length does not change from year to year, so it cannot explain a CHANGE in the bloom date. Additionally, day length is more relevant in the fall, not the spring: as the days become shorter it signals plants that winter is coming and they start getting ready for it (leaf fall and other physiological changes to avoid freezing).

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Examine Data Table 2:

Average March Temperature in Traverse City

What do you notice about this data set?
Do you see any trends?
Do you see any differences between 2012 and the other years?
What other format could we put this data set into to better analyze it?

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Avg. March Temp. over Time

2012

Show and discuss Graph 2 - Year vs. Average March temperature: We hypothesized that warmer temperatures might be leading to earlier bloom dates. Let’s examine the data to see if it supports this claim.

What is the x axis showing? What is the y axis showing? What are the units?
What is the variability in average March temperature? (coolest to warmest average March temp.)
What is the overall trend? Are average March temperatures getting warmer or cooler? Is it steep or fairly flat? What does this mean?
What do you notice about the 2012 dot?
How is this graph useful to us?

Helps us see if there is a trend over time in average spring temperatures getting warmer (or cooler).

Note for teachers: We use average March temperature because March is the month that is always before blooming, no matter how early it is. If we use April or May sometimes blooming was before those dates, and thus we would be using temperatures taking place after blooming.

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Has Michigan Gotten Warmer?

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Traverse City

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2012

What do the two graphs tell us?

Avg. March Temp. over Time

Bloom Date over Time

Ask students (also on Lesson 1 worksheet Part 2)

“So what do these two graphs tell us? What trends do you see? Are there any years that stand out? (What about 2012?)

Can you draw any conclusions from this graph?

Would these graphs support our hypothesis that warmer temperatures lead to earlier bloom dates? Why or why not?

Students could note things like: the graphs are almost inverses of one another, dots start out closer together and seem to spread out over time on each graph.
Students confirm that 2012 was a very warm March and that the bloom also occurred very early that year.
So it does seem like there might be a relationship between average March temperature and bloom date. Looks like perhaps when average March temperatures are warmer, the cherries bloom earlier, and when average March temperatures are cooler, the cherries bloom later.

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Rest of class time/Homework:

How else could we graph the data to better see the relationship between Avg. March Temperature and Bloom Date?
If we plotted both sets of data on ONE graph, what would that look like?

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Lesson 2

Intro to Modeling:

Graphing and Analyzing Phenology Data

NGSS Objectives:

HS-LS2-2. Use mathematical representations to support and revise explanations based on evidence about factors affecting biodiversity and populations in ecosystems of different scales.

HS-ESS3-1. Construct an explanation based on evidence for how the availability of natural resources, occurrence of natural hazards, and changes in climate have influenced human activity.

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Lesson 1 Review

What happened in 2012 to Michigan cherries?

What did we discover through our data sets?

Bloom Date
Average March Temperature

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2012

Review: What story do these graphs tell?

Avg. March Temp. over Time

Bloom Date over Time

Review:

Ask students, “So what do these two graphs tell us? Are there any years that stand out? (What about 2012?)

Can you draw any conclusions from this graph?

Would these graphs support our hypothesis that warmer temperatures lead to earlier bloom dates? Why or why not?

Students could note things like: the graphs are almost inverses of one another, dots start out closer together and seem to spread out over time on each graph
Students confirm that 2012 was a very warm March and that the bloom also occurred very early that year.
So it does seem like there might be a relationship between average March temperature and bloom date. Looks like perhaps when average March temperatures are warmer, the cherries bloom earlier, and when average March temperatures are cooler, the cherries bloom later.

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What do you think phenology means?

Did you know we have been studying phenology?

Introduce/define concept of phenology: “The timing of when the cherry trees blossom and all of these other events you described are examples of “phenology. What do you think phenology means?” (Help students come to understanding/definition, writing the definition up on the board as needed.)

Literal meaning: “The science of appearance.”
Roots: Pheno: “to show or appear” and Logos: “to study”
Definition: Phenology refers to recurring plant and animal life cycle stages. It is also the study of these recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, especially their timing and relationships with weather and climate. (Cite: National Phenology Network)
Definition of “Phenophase”: An observable stage or phase in the annual life cycle of a plant or animal. (The actual stage, “flower bloom” for example, is called a “phenophase.”)

Image: National Phenology Network: http://images.slideplayer.com/26/8525066/slides/slide_4.jpg

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Let’s learn more about phenology!

Video: Phenology and Nature’s Shifting Rhythms

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How can we use �phenology to help cherry farmers?

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Homework Review:

How else could we graph the data to better see the relationship between Avg. March Temperature and Bloom Date?
How could this help cherry farmers?

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Create a graph to predict Bloom Date based on Avg. March temp:

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What would be the:

Independent & dependent variables?
X and Y axes?
Units?
Title of the graph?

Think-Pair-Share:

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Bloom Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan

as a function of Avg. March Temperature

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Bloom Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan �as a function of March Temperature

What can you add to the graph to better predict Bloom Date based on Average March temp.?

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Estimate the “line of best fit”

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Bloom Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan �as a function of March Temperature

We determined we should add the line of best fit. How do we find that? (Get student ideas)

Have students estimate the line of best fit on their graphs on Lesson 2 Worksheet using a straight edge, like a ruler or the edge of a book. Share/compare their line of best fit with their groups and with the with other students around the class. Students could also use rulers or string to show others their estimates on the projected image.

The line you added to your graphs is called a line-of-best-fit, or a trend line. A line-of-best-fit is a linear average of all data points. This means the line is as close as possible to all data points. The line-of-best-fit can be used to identify any patterns in your data because it summarizes the relationship between the independent and dependent variable.

NEXT slide: Show students the slide showing line of best fit

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Blooming Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan as a function of March Temperature

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What does this tell us about the relationship between variables?

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Why might we want the equation for this line?
What would the equation look like?

Blooming Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan �as a function of March Temperature

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Blooming Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan as a function of March Temperature

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What does the equation mean?

y = -1.3(x)+173.22

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y = mx + b

What is x?

Blooming Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan as a function of March Temperature

y = -1.3(x)+173.22

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y = mx + b

What is y?

Blooming Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan as a function of March Temperature

y = -1.3(x)+173.22

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y = mx + b

What is m?

Blooming Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan as a function of March Temperature

y = -1.3(x)+173.22

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y = mx + b

What is b?

Blooming Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan as a function of March Temperature

y = -1.3(x)+173.22

June 21!

b = the Y value

When X = 0

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What does the

equation enable us to do?:

y = -1.3(x)+173.22

tells us

Bloom Date = -1.3(Temp.) + 173.22

Use the rest of class time to predict Bloom Date based on Avg. March Temperature!

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Blooming Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan as a function of March Temperature

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Can you use the line of best fit to predict the bloom date if Avg. March temp. is: 25 degrees? 30? 45?

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Lesson 3

Using climate and phenology data to make predictions

NGSS Objectives:

HS-LS2-2. Use mathematical representations to support and revise explanations based on evidence about factors affecting biodiversity and populations in ecosystems of different scales.

HS-LS2-7. Design, evaluate, and refine a solution for reducing the impacts of human activities on the environment and biodiversity.

HS-ESS3-4. Evaluate or refine a technological solution that reduces impacts of human activities on natural systems.

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Blooming Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan as a function of March Temperature

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Review: Use the line of best fit to predict the bloom date if Avg. March temp. is: 25 degrees? 30? 45?

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Review: What did you find?

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0 degrees
25 degrees
30 degrees
45 degrees

What did you find to be the predicted Bloom Date if Avg. March Temp. was:

173 = June 21
140/141 = May 19/20
134 = May 13
114/115 = April 23/24

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You just created and used a model!

What are scientific models?

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Ask students, “What is a model?” (Slide)

A representation of part of the real world
Created by combining real data from many variables to estimate processes and systems over time

CLICK AGAIN: What are other examples of models? Do you see any around this room?

A.This model shows the relationship between the sun, earth, and moon. It simulates the movements of the sun, earth, and moon in space relative to each other.

B.This model shows different types of animals. It diagrams how different animals are related by evolution.

C.This model shows the layers of the earth. It helps us visualize the inside of the earth, which we can’t typically see.

D.Graphs like this can also be scientific models. This one shows temperature and growth for 8 northern red oak trees. It helps us predict what the relationship between temperature and tree growth will be in the future.

E.This model shows the water cycle. It helps us understand how water moves through different physical states and locations on the planet.

Source: http://climatechangeandforests.org/lesson4/scientific-modeling

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Why use models? What are �strengths and limitations of our model?

Strengths

Limitations

Variability/Accuracy
Extrapolation
Generalizability (other species, regions)
Doesn’t include frost data

Makes complicated dynamics easier to understand
Relatively accurate/strong power to predict
Helps us plan or take action

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Ask students, “Why are models useful?/Why do we use them?”

Shows relationships between different variables
Make part of the world easier to understand: Condenses complex dynamics into a few terms so that we can more easily understand what is happening.
Allow us to make predictions about the future: We cannot run experiments on the earth as a whole, so we use models to help us predict and explain (rather than just guessing)

Click - Ask students, “Why is our model useful? What are its strengths?”

This model gives us relatively strong power to predict (as you just saw): You used the graph and the line/equation to predict bloom date and how this benefits farmers.
Like we discussed above, we cannot run experiments on the earth as a whole, so creating a model can help us make predictions rather than just guessing about what will happen

Click - Ask students, “What can we not do with this model or what does this model not tell us? (What are its “limitations”?) What kinds of other information or data could we collect to make it even more useful to us?

Variability: Discuss the fact that there is some variability around the line. Most observations do not fall right on the line, there are deviations, thus the line predicts a particular date but the actual date could be below or above the line. Then estimating how much higher or lower it could go would give us an estimate of the uncertainty around our predictions. Our predictions are not exact, but give us our best possible estimates.
What can make it more accurate? Collecting more data (over a longer period of time, or from more cherry trees) can help make our model more accurate

We can’t necessarily extrapolate beyond the line:

If we extrapolate beyond the curve we don’t have data to back up that the relationship will be the same

Generalizability:

Doesn’t apply to other species of trees. (We would need to have data on other tree species to see if they react the same way to warmer temperatures.)
Doesn’t apply to cherry trees in other geographical locations. Why can’t we use this model to predict date of bloom for the cherry trees in Washington, D.C. or Japan, for example?
Individual trees are adapted/acclimated to the local conditions they grew under. If we were to transplant a cherry tree from the South to the North, it would likely bloom at a different date than the local trees. We would need to collect this same kind of data for those trees in those locations

Anything else the model doesn’t include that might be helpful?

The model does not include any data about the dates or risk of frosts. Frost is the most relevant consequence of early phenology in the case of the cherry trees. Are late frost events getting more common? Is the last frost date moving later into the year?

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How can we make our �model more accurate?

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Collect more data and add it to our model!

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Let’s try it!

Download spreadsheet with data and graph to your laptop
Add Temp. and Bloom Date for years 2013, 2014 and 2015 to the data table
How did the addition of this data change your graph?
How did the equation for the line of best fit change?

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Updated model:

Blooming Date of Tart Cherries in Michigan as a function of March Temperature

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y = -1.31x + 173.62

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Online research (5 minutes):

How is Michigan’s climate predicted to change in the future?

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Changing Climate:

Warmer winters: Late winter temperatures rising faster than other seasons

+ Variability in spring freezes

→ May result in more freeze damage early in the growing season

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Projected increase in annual average temperature by 2041-2070 as compared to the 1971-2000 period.

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Use your updated model �to analyze the impact of climate change on Michigan cherries

According to your model, how much would the Bloom Date change if Michigan’s Avg. March Temp. (31 degrees) increased by:

2 degrees? 4 degrees? 6 degrees?

How might this impact Michigan cherry farmers and the greater population?

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What’s being done to help?

Listen to rest of story: Fruit Growers Try Tricking Mother Nature to Prevent Crop Damage

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Start radio story over from the beginning (for review) or pick up where you left off at 1:16

Discuss what is being done to work on the cherry tree issue:

Get student ideas on what they would do to deal with this issue if they were a cherry farmer
Then, play the rest of the NPR story “Fruit Growers Try Tricking Mother Nature to Prevent Crop Damage” (you can start back at the beginning for a refresher)

Using technology to “trick” trees into blooming later
Diversifying their crops in order to mitigate the impacts of climate change. (Farmers lessen their risk by planting different crops like apples that respond differently to weather and climate than cherry trees.)

Mister image: http://www.goodfruit.com/mist-cooling-for-freeze-protection/

Wind machine image: http://www.goodfruit.com/new-zealand-wind-machine-is-now-available-in-u-s/

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What else are �you left wondering?

What other data might you want to gather in the future to help farmers better adapt to or prepare for this issue?

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How can you help to �mitigate climate change?

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What you can do in your own life to help mitigate climate change? (Explain definition of “mitigate” if necessary: Mitigate means to lessen, reduce, make less severe. (Discuss student ideas)

Encourage students to “Do One Thing” to help mitigate climate change. Students can find lots of ideas on Page 14 of the Ann Arbor Energy Challenge Handbook (if time in class, teacher can have students visit the Handbook during class time)

Do some research and share with your classmates next class. You can even share your commitment online on the Alliance for Climate Education website! https://acespace.org/dot

Do One Thing image: http://www.sustainablebrands.com/news_and_views/employee_engagement/do-one-thing-lessons-driving-employee-engagement

Bike to school image: http://www.livewellwinona.org/wp-content/sabai/File/files/f36e03367b1bc5fbe98ab2946137abf1.jpg

Light image: http://resources.simafore.com/hubfs/images/last-data-scientist-turn-off-light-switch.jpg

Farming image: http://www.teensonfarms.com/images/Farm%20camp-planting%202.jpg

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How can you contribute �to phenology research?

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Phenology data collected by citizens like you contributes to scientific research around the world.

Bigger picture: Changes in phenology affect not only humans, but other animals and plants as well! On the field trip, we will go outside and think of ways these changes will affect other living things. We will also make our own phenological reports and submit them to Project Budburst. To prepare, we will read articles for homework and discuss them before going outside.

Students could visit Project BudBurst in class on their computers if they have time. This is the website that we will use to report our findings after the field trip.

Research how they are using phenology data to answer scientific questions.

Image: Image: https://www.usanpn.org/citizen-science-education

Project BudBurst logo: https://allendaleoutlook.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/pbblogo_white_url_hr_blogsize.jpg

CitSci image: http://www.serc.si.edu/education/images/small%20citizen%20science%20for%20index.jpg

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(OPTIONAL) �Homework (on Worksheet 3)

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Time to get creative! Write a memo, letter or other creative form to a cherry farmer about what you have learned in this unit.

(Details on Worksheet 3)

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Citizen Science:

Be a phenologist for �the day

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Article Summary: �Phenology and wildlife

Our question: How do changes in the phenology of wild plants affect not only humans, but other plants and animals as well?
In groups, fill out the article summary worksheet and get ready to present it to the class.

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Review: Citizen Science

Project BudBurst is a great Citizen Science website where you can contribute to climate and phenology research by collecting and analyzing data on trees in your area

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How to make observations

Learn phenological stages
Get outside!
Make observation using the �Single Report form

Latitude and longitude
Site description
Plant’s common and scientific name

Record in database (optional)

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Phenological Stages

LEAVES/NEEDLES for coniferous or deciduous trees and shrubs

What could they be doing?

Unfolding/emerging, changing color, or dropping

How many leaves are doing it?

Early (a few of them), Middle (about half of them), and Late (almost all of them)

FLOWERS for trees, shrubs, and wildflowers

Are they there? How many?

Early, Middle, and Late stages are the same as above

FRUIT for all types of plants

Are they there? How many?

Early, Middle, and Late stages are the same as above

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TIME TO GO OUTSIDE!

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Debrief from the field

What plant did you observe?
What stage was your plant in? Were you surprised?
What types of interactions did you see?
How could changes in phenology alter these interactions? What makes you say that?

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Why did we do this unit?

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(Click through to show each image one at a time)

Ask students, why do you think we did these lessons? (Click through for different images)

To learn about a specific issue Michigan farmers are dealing with that impacts agriculture, tourism, and the economy in Michigan. How might this issue impact your life or that of people you know?
To teach you about Citizen Science and how you can contribute to this field of study
To learn how to graph and analyze data, and to use a model
The bigger picture: Building these analytic skills is important whether you become a scientist or not. By being able to understand data and graphs when they are presented to you, you will be able to engage more with the news, scientists, politicians, etc. in your careers. Rather than just listening to someone tell you something is true or not, you will be able to analyze what they are saying and come to conclusions on your own.

Cherry farmer image: http://cheribundi.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Farmer-picking-cherries.jpg

CitSci image: https://www.calacademy.org/sites/default/files/styles/manual_crop_standard_960x540/public/assets/images/Education_Images/TYE_Images/skills.jpg?itok=1a9UKQub&c=66a6340a6586797452ffcdb30e7269a5

Graph Image: (Click through to show each image one at a time)

Ask students, why do you think we did these lessons? (Click through for different images)

To learn about a specific issue Michigan farmers are dealing with that impacts agriculture, tourism, and the economy in Michigan. How might this issue impact your life or that of people you know?
To teach you about Citizen Science and how you can contribute to this field of study
To learn how to graph and analyze data, and to use a model
The bigger picture: Building these analytic skills is important whether you become a scientist or not. By being able to understand data and graphs when they are presented to you, you will be able to engage more with the news, scientists, politicians, etc. in your careers. Rather than just listening to someone tell you something is true or not, you will be able to analyze what they are saying and come to conclusions on your own.

Cherry farmer image: http://cheribundi.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Farmer-picking-cherries.jpg

CitSci image: https://www.calacademy.org/sites/default/files/styles/manual_crop_standard_960x540/public/assets/images/Education_Images/TYE_Images/skills.jpg?itok=1a9UKQub&c=66a6340a6586797452ffcdb30e7269a5

Graph Image: =http://previews.123rf.com/images/pressmaster/pressmaster1107/pressmaster110700661/10068647-Image-of-confident-man-making-presentation-and-pointing-at-graph-on-whiteboard-Stock-Photo.jpg

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Thank you!

Climate Change �and the Future of �Michigan Cherries