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The effects of future novelty on marine protected areas

MASTER THESIS BY LEA HAHN

STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY

SUPERVISORS: THORSTEN BLENCKNER, ELEANORE CAMPBELL

DATA: THOMAS FRÖLICHER

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Novelty = no historical reference

Effect on species

Acclimation

Adaptation

Migration

Extinction

Climate change + anthropogenic activity → novel environments

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How will novelty emerge in Marine Protected Areas (MPA)

Great Barrier Reef vs. Galápagos Marine Reserve vs. Svalbard East/West

(Tropics) (Tropics + Upwelling) (Arctic)

Research questions:

🡪 How does the emergence of novelty differ between these diverse MPAs?

🡪 Which variables contribute the most in each MPA?

🡪 How does the habitat change for key species in each MPA?

Comparison of 3 biogeochemically diverse MPAs:

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3 ESMs:

CanESM5

IPSL-CM6A-LR

UKESM1-0-LL

SSP1-2.6

SSP5-8.5

Lon	Lat	Realm	Year	Sea surface temperature (°C)	Bottom O₂-concentration (mol m^-3)	Surface salinity (PSU)	Surface pH	Ice coverage (%)	Net primary production (mol m^-2 s^-1)

Baseline: 1980 – 2010

Early-Future: 2011 - 2040

Mid-Future: 2041- 2070

Far-Future: 2071 - 2100

Standardization over detrended ICV from baseline data
PCA of ICV and projection of all data on PCs
Identification of MD by finding the nearest neighbor within the same realm

Mahalanobian Distance

Identification of HD by finding the nearest neighbor within the same realm
Calculating the ONo index by averaging all HD values that fall within the MPA boundaries

Hellinger Distance

Absolute Novelty

Ocean Novelty (ONo) index (Johnson & Watson, 2021)

Niche graphs for key species

Realms

Methods

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S

Realms

Spalding et al 2007

Very large regions of coastal, benthic, or pelagic ocean across which biotas are internally coherent at higher taxonomic levels, as a result of a shared and unique evolutionary history.

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Galápagos Marine Reserve

Svalbard East and West

Great Barrier Reef

Early-Future

Mid-Future

Far-Future

SSP1-2.6

ONo Index

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Example:

Svalbard East/West

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What do the results mean?

Most novel variables in GMR and GBR: Surface pH and bottom oxygen concentration

vs. in Svalbard MPAs: Surface pH, SST, and sea ice coverage

Temperate and Arctic oceans are most novel
Ocean Acidification as biggest threat
Tropical MPAs already novel
Fastest novelty increase in Svalbard MPAs → Arctic Amplification
GBR as possible refuge for Central Indo-Pacific

Degree of global novelty	Early-Future		Mid-Future		Far-Future
	with pH	without pH	with pH	without pH	with pH	without pH
SSP1-2.6	0.1%	0.2%	41.3%	29.6%	59.7%	42.2%
SSP5-8.5	0.1%	0.1%	20.3%	24.1%	100%	81.1%

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Next steps

Incorporation of novelty in MPA management plan
ONo index for temperate MPAs? Ocean Disappearance index?
More research regarding tolerance limits for key species

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820989 (project COMFORT, Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points). The work reflects only the author’s/authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains.

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Extra slides

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Surface pH