Aviation Skywatch Mission
These maps are a result of multiple runs of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and Rapid Refresh (RAP) numerical weather forecast models. For each member of the three ensembles, the NAM and RAP model temperatures, pressures, and relative humidity data were compared with the Schmidt-Appleman criterion for contrail formation to determine which areas would support persistent contrail formation in the upper troposphere (any level between 150-400 mb). In addition, to eliminate regions where contrails may be obscured by thick cloudiness, dissipate, or disperse quickly due to atmospheric conditions, areas with model-forecasted thick cloudiness, high vertical wind shear between 330 and 200 mb, or strong descending air motion at 300 mb were excluded. The forecasts are approximate so even in areas with no/low confidence (contrail formation potential maps for example) some contrails may still form especially if they are next to areas of high confidence.
These maps were made by Dr. David Duda, part of the NASA Langley Research Center’s Satellite Cloud and Radiation Property Retrieval System (SatCORPS) team.
About These Maps
1
Aviation Skywatch Mission
12 UTC�8am AST/EDT
7am CDT
6am MDT
5am PDT
2
Aviation Skywatch Mission
12 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential
See speaker notes for description
3
Aviation Skywatch Mission
12 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential Mean Height
See speaker notes for description
4
Aviation Skywatch Mission
12 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential Mean Depth
See speaker notes for description
5
Aviation Skywatch Mission
15 UTC
11am AST/EDT
10am CDT
9am MDT
8am PDT
6
Aviation Skywatch Mission
15 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential
See speaker notes for description
7
Aviation Skywatch Mission
15 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential Mean Height
See speaker notes for description
8
Aviation Skywatch Mission
15 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential Mean Depth
See speaker notes for description
9
Aviation Skywatch Mission
18 UTC
2pm AST/EDT
1pm CDT
12pm MDT
11am PDT
10
Aviation Skywatch Mission
18 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential
See speaker notes for description
11
Aviation Skywatch Mission
18 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential Mean Height
See speaker notes for description
12
Aviation Skywatch Mission
18 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential Mean Depth
See speaker notes for description
13
Aviation Skywatch Mission
21 UTC
5pm AST/EDT
4pm CDT
3pm MDT
2pm PDT
14
Aviation Skywatch Mission
21 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential
See speaker notes for description
15
Aviation Skywatch Mission
21 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential Mean Height
See speaker notes for description
16
Aviation Skywatch Mission
21 UTC - Contrail Formation Potential Mean Depth
See speaker notes for description
17