Using Co$tingNature and Co$tingNature/local for the Kalu Oya

Mark Mulligan, King's College London

Sophia Burke, AmbioTEK CIC

45m, Audience Q&A, Sinhala

Outline

• Co$tingNature: Kalu Oya in the Sri Lanka context
• Key inputs
• Bundled services
• Greatest services
• Pressures
• Threats
• Conservation priority���
• Co$tingNature/local
• Key inputs
• Bundled services
• Greatest services
• Pressures
• Threats
• Conservation priority

Co$tingNature: some inputs (>140 input maps used)

Click the images for the live maps. Find. Opacity. Zoom.

Tree cover

Cropland cover

Built up area

Land use classification

Co$tingNature: some outputs: ecosystem services

Click the images for the live maps. Find. Opacity. Zoom.

• ← Service magnitude across all 18 ecosystem services. �
• Highest where both supply and demand are high, about people as well as nature.

• Greatest relative service provided by each pixel.→
• Most services require local demand to be realised
• Carbon does not, so is high where other services are low (low local demand) or where forests and peatlands dominate

Co$tingNature: some outputs: current pressures

Click the images for the live maps. Find. Opacity. Zoom.

• ← Current pressure on nature

• Greatest relative pressure→

Co$tingNature: some outputs: future threats

Click the images for the live maps. Find. Opacity. Zoom.

• ← Future threats to nature

• Greatest relative threat→

Co$tingNature: some outputs: CBD global biodiversity framework

Click the image for the live map. Find. Opacity. Zoom.�

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Co$tingNature/local for Kalu Oya: input data

• Go to https://analytics.policysupport.org/cn/local?site=Kaluoyamudunela&ut=edu
• Click Redraw map to zoom into the basin
• You can zoom around the map, change raster opacity, click points on the map to see their value, or read a summary of the map
• Under choose the type of map to view choose Input - land cover and click Redraw map to show the built area map
• Choose cover of tree-covered ground and Redraw map. Choose Input - land use and Redraw map to see the forest management layer. Choose Input-socio-economic and view GDP and population

C$N/local: Kalu Oya inputs (>200 input maps used)

Tree cover

Built-up cover

Population density

Wetness index

In this highly urbanised basin, nature is tightly interwoven with human land uses, so semi-natural systems (including gardens) provide the ecosystem services

Co$tingNature/local for Kalu Oya: output summary

• Choose Output - Co$tingNature summary�
• Click Redraw map to show the biodiversity index
• Work your way through the list below, clicking Redraw map, examining the map, reading the description and considering the values for places you know:
• Key maps to look at are:
• Relative realised bundled services index (the magnitude of all ecosystem services combined)
• Current pressure (the magnitude of current pressure on nature)
• Future threat (the magnitude of future threat to nature)
• Greatest realised ecosystem service (the greatest ecosystem service in each pixel, meaning all other services are lower, not that this service is very valuable)
• Realised conservation priority (conservation priority on the basis of biodiversity, ecosystem services, pressure and threat)
• Greatest conservation priority (which of these priorities is greatest in each pixel i.e. the greatest reason for the assigned conservation priority)�
• Note: you can change the background by clicking Map options and then changing OSM Mapnik to Google Sat or Google Hybrid, then Redraw map

C$N/local: Kalu Oya outputs: ecosystem services

• ← Service magnitude across all ecosystem services. �
• Highest where both supply and demand are high i.e. where population and infrastructure are greatest and risks highest.

• Greatest relative service provided by each pixel.→
• Water and Carbon important but each pixel provides multiple services
• Most services require local demand to be realised
• Carbon does not, so is high where other services are low, or where trees dominate

C$N/local: Kalu Oya outputs: pressure and threat

• ← This is where nature is currently under human pressure

• This is where there are developing threats to nature that will likely materialise in the near future→

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• Where there is pressure on -- or threat to -- nature, these areas become more of a conservation priority

C$N/local: Kalu Oya outputs: biodiversity and conservation priority

• ← Biodiversity is highest where human pressure is least and also where there are areas of localised endemism

• Conservation priority: pressured and threatened high biodiversity areas with high ecosystem service provision→

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• Reflects proximity of demand as well as supply so even built up areas are some of the most important�
• Not all wetlands are the top priority for the basin as pressure and threat are lower

C$N/local: Experiments in economic valuation

• Click the Values tab to access the economic valuation tool.
• It is set up to use per-service local economic values supplied by IWMI, for the whole basin, not just the wetlands.
• By default it will provide a 25 year valuation with 3% discount rate, 5% GDP growth rate and investment costs and opportunity costs estimated for the basin.
• Hovering over any text that is underlined will show an explanation.
• To run this analysis click Submit at the bottom
• The maps of biophysical values for the 10 ES (plus biodiversity) are combined with the economic data using standard economic valuation procedures to calculate the summaries and a series of graphics

• Look out for TEV (Total Economic Value of ecosystem services): 1.67B over 25 years
• Look out for ROI (Return on Investment): 341.8 % over 25 years
• Current land management investments in the Kalu Oya Mudun Ela sum to between ~11 and 40 MUSD/yr, depending on which projects are included.
• Distributed over the 1050 ha wetland area in the basin, this amounts to between USD 10,377 and USD 38,219/ha/yr, depending on which projects are included.
• Examine the following diagrams:

Cost, value change over time

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GDP increases over time as do TEV, investment costs and opportunity costs

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As a result, ROI declines over time

�Note the higher TEV in year 1 as all carbon stock value accrues only once. All other values are provided annually.

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Total value by service

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Note the most valuable are: water related, wildlife services to croplands and fuelwood. ��These services are realised every year over most of the basin: flood mitigation is not needed every year and is only needed on the floodplain.

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�Unit value vs total value by service

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Total value is the product of unit value and biophysical magnitude. Note the log scales.

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Carbon has high magnitude but low value, therefore middling TEV.

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Water resource is middle value and middle magnitude so higher TEV

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Annual value over time

Since GDP is growing faster than discount rate, those services tied to GDP (eg hazard mitigation services) increase in value over time.

Those not tied to GDP (eg fuelwood decline over time with the discount rate).�

TEV: total and average by land use

The total by land use shows the total contribution of each land use.

The average by land use shows the per hectare contribution of each land use i.e. the density of value per unit of the land use.

Conclusions

• Co$tingNature/local for Kalu Oya enables the mapping of ecosystem services, biodiversity, pressure and threat to nature and thus overall conservation priority�
• It allows examination of key input maps and statistics�
• It allows the valuation of ecosystem services based on local user values, to re-run an analysis with different values, simply change the values and hit submit�
• Creating a free account and logging in opens up further functionality (eg downloading maps as GIS files), as does removal of the &ut=edu (training version)�
• The tool will continue to be developed in future projects, with new developments improving the tool for all users�
• More detail: https://www.policysupport.org/projects/wetland-ecosystem-services

This presentation is provided with funding from: The UK FCDO Reversing Environmental Degradation in Africa and Asia (REDAA) project: Wetland ecosystem modelling and valuation in the Kalu Oya Basin, Sri Lanka. https://www.redaa.org/. Funding received from the Reversing Environmental Degradation in Africa and Asia (REDAA) program (www.redaa.org) is gratefully acknowledged. The REDAA program is funded by UK International Development from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and managed by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).

Thank you

• More detail: https://www.policysupport.org/projects/wetland-ecosystem-services

Questions

• Who might use this tool and what might they use it for?
• How could it be most usefully extended?