Why You Probably Can't Predict Your Own Happiness

Humans generally have a good idea of whether something will make us happy or unhappy, but it turns out we’re not great at knowing exactly how much.

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Benchmark: 9-12.SeA.1.3

Describe how changing their interpretation of an event, for example through self-talk, can change how they feel about it.

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VIDEO HERE

He used the term “affective (AKA emotional) forecasting” and said people ARE good at predicting if something will feel unpleasant or pleasant but we’re NOT good at predicting how much, the degree.

On a scale from 1 to 10, how good do you think you are at “forecasting” for yourself? Why?

He used the examples of

excitedly looking forward to Christmas morning or anxious awaiting a shot.

What are some red flags that someone is stressing themselves unnecessarily for something that won’t end up being a big deal?

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On a scale from 1 to 10, how much do you agree with the idea that people tend to overestimate how strong their emotional reaction will be to something, good or bad?

Imagine you’re a social media

manager for a self-care app and you’re assigned to write a catchy “tips and tricks” post about how to keep yourself from overestimating how much things will emotionally impact you. What would you include?

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He just reviewed a few “tips and tricks” for how to avoid the bias we were just discussing. How did his suggestions overlap or not overlap with our ideas a moment ago?

In terms of your

own decision making, what % do you think is logical vs. what % is emotional?

He suggested that talking to a

“surrogate” — someone who has already experienced what you’re dreading or looking to — could make you better at predicting how you’ll actually feel if you experience it yourself.

What are some examples of when this might come in handy?

Nice work! To recap, we learned more about: