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Published 28th April 2025

Getting to know ‘Reform curious Labour voters’�In-depth polling and experimentation - overview of slides

[Put deck into slideshow mode to read all graphs]

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Research objectives

Looking in particular at key battleground seats, we set out to examine:�

What is the historical relationship between the existing Reform vote and Labour? �
How much of Labour’s vote in key seats is genuinely susceptible to voting for Reform at the next election? �

What are the different factors or issues that might drive them there?
What might prevent them from doing so? �

Looking at the previous two questions, what trade-offs exist across the government’s electoral coalition? �

That is, where does appealing to Reform voters have consequences elsewhere and vice versa? �

What is the best path for Reform if it wishes to maximise its share of the Labour vote, and what is the best path for Labour if it wishes to retain these voters in coalition with the rest of its election winning vote.

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Methodology

x4 focus groups with Reform curious Labour voters in January 2025, via CRD Research. Two in England (Leeds and Birmingham) and two in Wales (South Wales; Bridgend and Neath). All held in Labour held constituencies where Reform is in second place.�
New polling commissioned by YouGov in March 2025.

A GB-wide survey of 4,000 adults, weighted to be nationally representative
A survey of 1,000 ‘Reform curious Labour voters’ (Labour 2024, >5/10 willing to vote Reform at the next election)
A 1,000 person dedicated survey of Wales, weighted to be nationally representative �

In addition, MRP analysis was conducted on every Parliamentary constituency, quantifying both Reform and Green curious Labour voters at a seat level. This was conducted by YouGov. �
Two discrete conjoint experiments were commissioned via polling company NorStat. The first involved 1,000 Labour voters and 500 Reform voters. The second involved 1,000 Labour voters.�
Analysis of existing data-sets, most notably the British Election Survey (BES) and, concerning attitudes to Net Zero specifically, Opinium collected for Labour Climate and Environment Forum (LCEF).�

The project was paid for via core funding that Persuasion receives from its funders. IPPR were not a formal partner on this particular project.

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‘Labour to Reform switchers’ are real, but need to be put in perspective�

Historically speaking, Reform votes are not ‘Labour’s lost voters’ �
Looking forward, the direct Reform threat is genuine - albeit needs to be seen in the context of potential losses elsewhere to Lib Dems and Greens.�
Labour likely has to balance all of these different voter groups in order to win next time.

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YouGov MRP analysis, all else being equal:��

If Labour lost every ‘Reform curious Labour voter’, they would lose 123 seats �
If Labour lost every ‘Green curious Labour voter’, they would lose 250 seats

�The skill here for Lab is in uniting the two, not saying one matters at the expense of the other.

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Tactical voting dynamics

Currently, it appears to be net useful for Labour to have the next election framed as Labour vs Reform.

Labour’s tactical voting advantage over the Conservatives, by contrast, appears to have disappeared as the anti-Labour vote becomes more efficient.

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Understanding the demographics of ‘Reform curious Labour voters’

These voters are demographically quite similar to the wider Reform vote - but have different media diets.

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Understanding the social values of Reform curious Labour voters

They are classically ‘cross-pressured’ in their views - closer to Reform on culture, closer to Labour on economics/role of the state.

Anti-system sentiment is also very high with this group.

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What issues are salient to these voters? What pushes and pulls them to and from Reform?

At the moment, it is these voters’ cultural values which are most salient to them - driven by discontent over small boats especially.

But there is also a wider sense of frustration and ‘we might as well roll the dice’.

Elsewhere, proximity to Trump/Musk is a weakness for Reform with these voters.

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Issue focus: Immigration

For the most part it’s small boats/asylum driving these voters discontent on migration, less so legal migration.

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Issue focus: Net Zero

While they care about it less than the wider Labour vote, Reform curious Labour voters are not anti Net Zero in the way core Reform voters are.

There is currently no evidence that these voters blame the clean energy transition on higher energy bills or lower economic growth in the way the wider Reform vote does.

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Experiment no 1: how can Labour unite its coalition?

‘Moderate positions on culture, populist positions on economics’ best re-assembles Labour’s winning 2024 coalition

01

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Conjoint experiment: Labour vs Reform and Greens

n=1000 Labour 2024 voters conducted via NorStat in April 2025. �
Respondents saw three policy platforms, one branded as Labour, one Reform and one Green.�
Labour policy was varied within six broad categories: asylum, immigration, Net Zero, welfare, wealth taxation and public services. In total 19 policies were tested across these categories in hundreds of possible combinations. �
For efficiency, Reform and Green were fixed in positions we know they have, or at least can make defensible assumptions about. �
Respondents were asked which party they would vote for if the parties stood on the policy platform they saw in front of them. In the analysis we see which policies were most vote moving in different directions.�
The intention here is to try and simulate some of the three-party dynamics to voter flow, but also surface the ‘balancing dilemmas’ Labour has in keeping its 2024 vote together �

We wanted to surface the policies that hold together both sides of the Labour coalition best, and those which lead to the most leakage in either direction

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Issue �	Labour platform (vary)	Reform platform (fix)	Green platform (fix)
Immigration	Put a complete stop to all immigration ��Significantly reduce all immigration, introducing a hard cap of 150,000 people a year ��Keep overall migration at current levels, but reduce low-skill migration ��Increase overall immigration from current levels	Put a complete stop to all immigration	Increase overall immigration from current levels
Asylum seekers	Deport all asylum seekers and refugees with no exceptions,repealing human rights legislation to make it happen��More quickly process and deport asylum seekers without a legitimate claim, but allow legitimate cases to stay��Liberalise asylum policy so Britain accepts more refugees �	Deport all asylum seekers and refugees with no exceptions, repealing human rights legislation to make it happen��	Liberalise asylum policy so Britain accepts more refugees
Net Zero	Abolish all UK efforts to limit climate change��Go slower in the UK’s efforts to limit climate change, moving to renewable energy more slowly��Go faster in the UK’s efforts to limit climate change, moving to renewable energy faster	Abolish all UK efforts to limit climate change	Go faster in the UK’s efforts to limit climate change, moving to renewable energy faster
Wealth taxes	Introduce a wealth tax on the assets of the wealthiest 1% of the population ��Keep taxes on the wealthiest the same as now ��Cut taxes on the wealthiest 1% of the population	Cut taxes on the wealthiest 1% of the population	Introduce a wealth tax on the assets of the wealthiest 1% of the population
Welfare	Increase the amount of money that people on benefits receive��Maintain the current amount of money that people on benefits receive��Reduce the amount of money that people on benefits receive	Maintain the current amount of money that people on benefits receive	Increase the amount of money that people on benefits receive
Public services	Significantly increase funding for the NHS and other front-line services��Maintain the current levels of funding for the NHS and other front-line services��Decrease funding for the NHS and other front-line services �	Maintain the current levels of funding for the NHS and other front-line services	Significantly increase funding for the NHS and other front-line services�

All policies seen

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One example variation, as seen by a survey respondent

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How to interpret the numbers you are about to see (centred marginal means):

The more negative a score a possible Labour policy position receives, the more it's a net vote loser within Labour’s 2024 election winning coalition (with either Reform or Greens benefiting).

The higher the positive score, the more it is a net vote winner it is (with Reforms or Greens losing out).

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Acknowledged limitations

�

There are many reasons people vote for parties and not all of them are to do with ‘position issues’ - some of them have to do with valence (competence, trust, delivery etc), brand loyalty or tactical considerations. We have tried to control for brand loyalty, at least, by including the party brands in the experiment - but no experiment can get at all of these considerations at once. �
The sample here is only Labour voters. For this reason, it’s not possible to know the impact on a wider set of non-Labour voters. For instance, perhaps taking strong progressive positions on some issues energise anti-Labour voters to vote tactically. On the other hand, perhaps anti-migration positions deter Green or Lib Dem voters from voting tactically for Labour against Reform. �
In addition, of course, the electoral benefit on any policy can change if it is implemented badly or generates negative knock-on effects or case studies. �
In general, the best way to interpret this experiment is not to take the policy specifics too literally - most voters don’t look at these. Rather it’s about the strength of a party’s signalling on an issue area. Crucially, it is also about dividing lines - these are the potential wedge issues that can move votes (in this case, Labour voters)when they see parties as have differing positions on any given issue.

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Findings

�

All that said, the evidence here is fairly compelling: with Reform curious voters on one side and Green curious voters on the other, the best way for Labour to balance its fragile coalition is to strike moderate positions on divisive cultural issues while leaning into progressive positions on economic issues, notably funding for public services, wealth taxation and Net Zero. �

Public services and wealth taxation is salient across the Labour coalition. Net Zero is a ‘free bet’ electorally that it’s highly salient with the graduate educated half of Labour’s coalition, whereas while it is less important to non-graduate, it is not unpopular.�

Given an ever-fragmented attention economy, bringing the findings in this experiment to ‘real life’ is about more than adopting these policy stances. Rather, it’s about Labour setting clear dividing lines and generating conflict around these dividing lines so that voters notice party’s have differing positions.

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Conjoint experiment no 2

What sends Labour voters to Reform, and Reform voters to Labour?

Moving to the left of Labour on economics + combining this with migration sceptic views maximises the Reform share of the Labour vote

A complete stop to immigration is the only thing that moves large numbers of Reform voters to Labour.

02

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Conjoint experiment: Labour vs Reform

n=1000 Labour 2024 voters and 500 Reform 2024 v0ters, conducted via NorStat in April 2025. �
This worked the same as the previous experiment, except respondents saw two platforms - Labour and Reform - which were varied. �
In the analysis phase we see which Reform policies increase and decrease the flow of Labour voters to Reform.�
We can also look at what policies, if any, might draw Reform voters to Labour.

To note: about 50% of Reform voters were not responsive to any issue positioning by Labour at all, suggesting they are fervent anti-Labour or anti-system voters rather than ‘frustrated issue voters’. The analysis focuses on those who were responsive or open to switching.

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Example platform variation seen by respondent

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Recommendations

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Recommendations for Labour to retain Reform curious Labour voters but also Lib Dem and Green switchers

Maintain moderate - even if boring - positions on divisive cultural topics like asylum and migration. Do not get tempted to the far left or right. Be safe if unspectacular, it’s unsatisfying but unavoidable.�
Through all of your strategic communications, seek to shift the site of conflict in politics away from cultural issues - which will always be disadvantageous to Labour and advantageous to Reform - and towards more populist conflict on economic left-right issues. ��You must actively seek and welcome fights on these issues (eg funding for public services, wealth taxes, workers rights etc) to do this successfully, bearing in mind how little attention voters pay to politics.�
Provided there is no visible screw-ups on it (eg ULEZ style taxes or blackouts), clear positive signalling on Net Zero/climate is a ‘free hit’ - you can use dividing lines on it with Reform or the Conservatives to keep left voters inside the Labour tent, without losing Labour votes to the right.�
Seek to turn the next election into ‘Labour or Farage’ - persuading people of the credible threat of Reform winning will help Labour squeeze parties to its left more than a traditional Labour vs Con fight, plus add a few more Con voters to Labour’s pile.�
If possible over time, leverage Reform proximity to Trump and Musk to further increase threat perception of Farage as PM / a Reform government among potential Labour voters. �
Combining this ‘emotionalism’ with deliverism still matters, especially on public services and small boats.

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Recommendations for Reform to maximise its share of the Labour vote

Maintain robust anti migration and anti asylum policies, seeking to keep conflict on these issues in the news at all costs.�
Beyond that, run to the left of Labour on a few key left-right issues, such as tax and spend - eg consider proposing a tax on the richest to fund the NHS or schools. Pick fights with CEOs of unpopular businesses. �
Put some distance between yourself and Trump/Musk - it is not helpful with swing voters.

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Thanks!

*Please do help us share this research with anyone you think would be interested*

@SteveAkehurst�

https://persuasionuk.org/ ��