The Future of Command & Control –�Evolution or Revolution?

Gordon Niven & David Capewell

OFFICIAL

1

23/10/2023 / © Crown copyright 2020 Dstl

Did Cybernetics win the Battle of Bannockburn?

2

Scotland 1 England 0

• Scottish army of c. 6000 mainly foot soldiers
• English army of c. 20,000 including foot soldiers, armoured knights and bowmen
• English defeated with > 10,000 casualties (Scot’s losses c. 100)

Introduction

3

• A theoretical explanation of the evolution of military command and control (C2).
• A lens through which to view contemporary C2 challenges
• Insights into how C2 may have to change to address the complexity of the future operating environment.

The Variety Calculus

4

• A body of Systems Thinking theory derived from Cybernetics and Complexity Science.
• Associated methodology
• A means of characterizing situations and designing appropriate responses
• Universal, comprehensive, scalable

Variety

5

• A property of a system derived from the diversity of components and relationships between them.
• Related to:
• Amount of information contained within, and required to understand, a system
• Number of different states the system can adopt
• System complexity

The Variety Spectrum

6

Complex

Chaotic

Complicated

VARIETY

Simple

DISORDER

UNPREDICTABILITY

INABILITY TO UNDERSTAND

LACK OF CONTROL

The Law of Requisite Variety

7

To effectively observe, understand, influence or communicate, a process, organisation, operation or technology must have requisite variety with the situation or task in which it seeks to have agency*.

*The Variety Calculus definition, not that of Ashby 1957

Requisite Variety in Practice

8

Many factors and relationships.

Rules are elusive Unpredictable behaviour.

Resist conventional analysis

Highly subjective

No definitive ‘right answer’

Few factors with clear relationships.

Intuitive understanding of ‘rules’ that govern behaviour.

Amenable to analysis and predictive modelling

Objective ‘right answer’

Diversity

Fluid relationships

Flexible approaches

Innovation

Dialogue & Collaboration

Networks

Dispersed decision making

Uniformity

Fixed structures

Standarised processes

Tried & tested techniques

Directive command

Linear chain of command

Centralised decision making

SITUATION

RESPONSE

VARIETY

The Genesis of Warfare

9

Situation - Simple

Low variety – Two parties using violence to destroy or drive off their adversary

Protagonists - Complex

High variety – Each individual acts independently according to their own situation, wishes and capabilities

Agency Through Variety Attenuation

10

The phalanx – identically equipped soldiers fighting as one in tight formation

Sumerian phalanx – 25^th Century BCE

• This reduces the variety of the force
• Requisite Variety with the situation generates greater Agency
• The phalanx beats the rabble

​

‘Variety Alignment’

11

• The phalanx can manoeuvre and concentrate force
• Centralised control becomes essential as individuals have surrendered freedom of action
• Agency, Control, and Variety Attenuation inextricably linked
• Optimum agency - variety alignment

Situation = Force = C2 System

SITUATION

FORCE

FORCE

C2 SYSTEM

Remember Bannockburn?

12

• Scots fought in ‘schiltrons’
• English engage piecemeal, are undisciplined and poorly led
• More effective variety attenuation and thus greater agency in the situation?

More Sophisticated Warfare - The Napoleonic Example

13

• Variety of the situation has increased
• Variety of the force has increased
• Variety of the C2 system has increased
• Ability of centralised, directive command to function is still dependent on variety attenuation of the force
• Variety of Force Elements must be reduced to that of the Command System to enable directive control
• Soldiers organised in rank & file, trained to move and fire by numbers – all individuality removed

The Modern Era

14

• Increased complexity of the situation and increased sophistication of the force
• C2 systems increasingly fall short and lag behind variety of situation and force
• HQs and staff get larger, chains of command longer, increasing amounts of data required
• Limits to the ability of hierarchical directive C2 systems to generate increased variety
• Larger HQs offer diminishing returns and are more vulnerable
• Greater variety attenuation – commanders more dislocated

The Contemporary C2 Challenge

15

Modern C2 demands high variety C2 systems for complex situations

E.g. decentralised, more networked approaches

Centralised, hierarchical C2 may have reached the limit of its ability to amplify variety

Variety attenuating factors are ingrained in military processes, structures and ways of working

Evolution or Revolution?

16

• This analysis reframes the challenge of contemporary C2 in terms of variety
• Does it suggest that we can generate more effective C2 by evolution of the traditional model?
• Or does it suggest that a paradigm shift is required?

CLASSIFICATION

17

Discover more