1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Appendix Network
Main deck
Appendix Network (this slide)
Appendix A – Overview
A1 | Product Portfolio
A2 | P.run performance Forecast
A3 | Historical Performance – P.Run
A4 | CPS performance Forecast
A5 | Historical Performance – CPS
A6 | APEQ performance Forecast
A7 | Historical Performance – APEQ
A8 | SPS performance Forecast
A9 | Historical Performance – SPS
A10 | OT performance Forecast
A11 | Historical Performance – OT
A12 | Category share by region
Regional share and Category share
A13 | Sales to Operating Profit
A16 | ROIC (Operating profit margin)
A17 | ROIC (Investment capital Turnover)
A19 | ROIC (SG&A expense ratio)
A20 | ROIC (Tangible fixed asset turnover)
A21 | ROIC (Working capital turnover)
A22 | ROIC (Days inventory turnover)
A23 | ROIC (A/R turnover days)
A24 | ROIC (A/P turnover days)
Appendix B - Thesis 1
Trend analysis
B6 | Trend analysis -OT and SPS fashion-driven segments
B7 | Trend analysis-Retro sneaker popularity × Y2K popularity
B8 | Trend analysis- IR strategy
B9 | Trend analysis- structual challenge of SPS
B10 | Difference between NIKE/ Adidas and Asics
B11 | Logic OT depends Fashion Trend
B12 | Trend analysis-common products lifecycle portfolio
B13 | ASICS OT product portfolio
B14 | SPS/OT search Interest correlation list
B16 | Inbound number and occupancy rate
B17 | Number of scheduled hotels and rooms
Appendix C - Thesis 2
C1 | 5 forces analysis (OneASICS)
C2 | OneASICS subscribers and E-commerce
C3 Acquisition of race registration platforms
Appendix D - Thesis 3 + Valuation
Stock price movement vs Forecast revision
D3 | DCF Key assumption – FCFF calculation
D4 | DCF Key assumption – Terminal growth rate
D5 | DCF Key assumption – BS/PS/Discount rate
D6 | DCF Key assumption – Exchange rate
D7 | DCF Key assumption – Capex
D8 | DCF Key assumption – Extraordinary gain or loss
D9 | DCF Key assumption – Dividend payout
D10 | Sensitivity Key assumption
D11 | Sensitivity Analysis WACC vs TG
D12 | Sensitivity Analysis - Turnover
D13 | Sensitivity Analysis - Capital cost
D14 | Comparable analysis – Multiples
D15 | Bull/Bear Scenario
D16 | Montecarlo Simulation-Results
D17 | Montecarlo Simulation-Variables
D18 | DDR
D19 | ROE/PBR competitive comparison
D20 | Reverse DCF – Sales, OPM
Appendix E - ESG
E3 | LSEG rating
E4 | ASICS's performance in the Environmental
E5 | Number of Employees and Efficiency
E6 | ASICS: Dividends and Share Buybacks
E7 | Foreign investor ratio
E10 | Shareholder benefits program
Appendix F - Other Data
F1 | Company History
F4 | Cash flow statement
F5 | Regional and Category Sales and OPM Forecast
F6 | EPS estimation
F7 | Financial Assets vs Non-financial Assets
F9 | Political risk
F10 | ASICS: increasing R&D expenses
F11 | Patents
F12 | Meta speed Patent
F13 | Comparable Company Analysis
F14 | Exchange rate trend
F15 | Exchange rate effect
F16 | Oil Price trend
F17 | 5 forces analysis (CPS)
F18 | 5 forces analysis (APEQ)
F19 | Primary research: Interview across 8 countries and regions
F20 | Interview summary
(P.Run Related below:)
F21 | ASICS P.Run: Meta speed Patent
F22 | ASICS's P.Run shares around the world
F23 | 5 forces analysis (P.Run)
F24 | Growing market share in North America
F25 | Economic growth in Asian countries
F26 | Income proportion (India and Indonesia)
F27 | Montecarlo- model comparison 1
F28 | Montecarlo- model comparison 2
F29 | Montecarlo- model accuracy
F30 | Montecarlo- Impact of WACC and FCFF
F31 | India Local production ratio
F32 | Differences between ROIC, ROE, ROA
Appendix G- Peers
G1 | Region sales share
G2 | Beta vs Stock Trend- peers
G3 | PER vs Stock Trend- peers
G4 | Training app active users peers (Nike, Adidas)
G6 | R&D - peers
35
A P P E N D I X - A
Product Portfolio: Robust growth in P.run, Significant growth in OT and SPS
A P P E N D I X - A
Category Sales and OPM
A P P E N D I X - A
P.Run Performance Forecast
Japan, Europe, Oceania: ASICS share is already high in this region. Sales CAGR expectation is 7%
Greater China, Southeast/South Asia: High growth in consumption is expected. Sales CAGR 10%-15%
North America: ASICS is expanding share and brand image. Sales CAGR gradually increase from 10% to 15%. OPM will be same level as other matured regions.
Historical Performance - P.Run
A P P E N D I X - A
A P P E N D I X - A
CPS Performance Forecast
Japan, Europe, Oceania: Moderate growth is expected in matured region. Sales CAGR expectation is 5%-10%
Greater China, Southeast/South Asia: High growth in consumption is expected. Sales CAGR 10%-15%
North America: ASICS is expanding share and brand image. Sales CAGR is 7%. OPM will be same level as other matured regions.
Historical Performance - CPS
A P P E N D I X - A
A P P E N D I X - A
APEQ Performance Forecast
ASICS is scaling back its APEQ business, as it is not a core focus area. CAGR 5%
Historical Performance - APEQ
A P P E N D I X - A
A P P E N D I X - A
SPS Performance Forecast
Fashion trend expansion
2022-2026
Fashion trend peak out
2027-2030
Remains flat
2031-
Key
・OPM remains flat (conservatively estimated the downside)
・Following Trend Cycle (conservatively estimated the downside)
Historical Performance - SPS
A P P E N D I X - A
A P P E N D I X - A
OT Performance Forecast
Fashion trend expansion
2022-2026
Fashion trend peak out
2027-2030
Sales recovery
2031-
Driver
North America：Untapped market
Europe:Double the number of DTC stores and expand e-commerce sales countries
Greater China: Tiger logo has a high affinity with Chinese culture
Historical Performance - OT
A P P E N D I X - A
Category Share by Region
A P P E N D I X - A
Regional share and Category share
A P P E N D I X - A
Sales to Operating Profit
A P P E N D I X - A
Sales to Operating Profit
A P P E N D I X - A
Sales to Operating Profit
A P P E N D I X - A
Sales to Operating Profit
A P P E N D I X - A
Sales to Operating Profit
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC Tree
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC Operating Profit Margin ratio
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC Investment Capital turnover
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC Cost of Sales ratio
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC SG&A ratio
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC Tangible Fixed Asset Turnover
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC Working Capital
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC DIO (Days Inventory Outstanding）
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC AR turnover days
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC AP turnover days
A P P E N D I X - A
ROIC Forecast
A P P E N D I X - A
Industry CAGR Forecast
A P P E N D I X - B
5 Force Analysis – OT
A P P E N D I X - B
5 Force Analysis – SPS
A P P E N D I X - B
SPS/OT Mix Impact
A P P E N D I X - B
ASICS Trend analysis
A P P E N D I X - B
ASICS Trend analysis
A P P E N D I X - B
Onitsuka Tiger and SportStyle: Fashion-Driven Segments
ASICS Trend analysis –
A P P E N D I X - B
・The popularity of retro sneakers correlates with Onitsuka's sales
・The popularity of Y2K correlates with Sport Style's sales
Retro Sneaker Trend Index
Y2K Sneaker Trend Index
OT sales（JPY）
SPS sales（JPY）
Retro Sneaker Popularity
Y2K Popularity
Current sales (OT, SPS) are significantly influenced by the upward trend effect
ASICS Trend analysis –IR strategy
A P P E N D I X - B
Historically demonstrated its competitive market advantage only during periods dominated by high-technology footwear
Onitsuka aims to move beyond trends
IR
IR
→Sales growth driven by current trends remains significant
SPS is pursuing a trend-following strategy, diversified product portfolio
ASICS Trend analysis – Structural Challenges of SPS
A P P E N D I X - B
In the red till High tech trend start
SPS Sales
Historically demonstrated its competitive market advantage only during periods dominated by high-technology footwear
Design Rights
ASICS Trend analysis – What is different between NIKE/ Adidas and Asics
A P P E N D I X - B
The Process: Existing Products → Alignment with Trend Cycle → Sales Growth → Trend Shift → Missing New Product ✘
�
The Process: Market Trend →Catch-up via New Products →Maintain & Grow Sales → Trend Shift →New Product Hit →Maintain & Grow Sales�
�
ASICS Trend analysis – Logic OT depends Fashion Trend
A P P E N D I X - B
Onitsuka Tiger is positioning itself as a luxury brand, not just a trend. Why won't that stick?“
They're buying the ‘price difference’, not the value of brand.
1
2
→Pricing Power: If it were truly luxury, inbound tourists wouldn't flock to buy simply because ‘it's cheaper in Japan
Answer : the company aims for ‘Timelessness.’ But the market doesn't see it that way.
→ When the boom fades, the luxury veneer peels away
sales correlate at 0.9 with search volume for ‘retro sneakers’. This proves ‘boom dependency’, not ‘brand strength
ASICS Trend analysis- common products lifecycle portfolio
A P P E N D I X - B
ASICS OT product portfolio
A P P E N D I X - B
SPS/OT search Interest correlation list
A P P E N D I X - B
Inbound Effect
A P P E N D I X - B
Inbound number and occupancy rate
A P P E N D I X - B
A P P E N D I X - B
Number of scheduled hotels and rooms
Exchange Rate Tailwind
A P P E N D I X - B
5 Force Analysis– OneASICS
A P P E N D I X - C
OneASICS and E-commerce
A P P E N D I X - C
Acquisition of Race Registration Platform
A P P E N D I X - C
PER vs Beta
A P P E N D I X - D
Stock price movement vs Performance forecast revision
A P P E N D I X - D
Sample 2021-2024 Quarter base
(Only when there was forecast revision)
WACC Key Assumption
A P P E N D I X - D
DCF Key Assumption – FCFF calculation
A P P E N D I X - D
DCF Key Assumption – Terminal Growth Rate
A P P E N D I X - D
DCF Key Assumption – BS/PL/Discount rate
A P P E N D I X - D
DCF Key Assumption – Exchange Rate
A P P E N D I X - D
A P P E N D I X - D
DCF Key Assumption – Capex
A P P E N D I X - D
DCF Key Assumption – Extraordinary gain or loss
Business Restructuring Expenses
In Q4 2018, the company formulated an "Action Plan" as part of structural reforms aimed at performance recovery. Following a review and re-evaluation of domestic and overseas assets, significant business restructuring expenses (¥21,142 million) were recorded as an extraordinary loss.
The breakdown of these expenses is as follows:
→ These measures were taken to prepare for the shift to category-based management starting in 2019.
�
A P P E N D I X - D
DCF Key Assumption –Dividend payout
Total payout ratio assumption
50%
A P P E N D I X - D
Sensitivity Analysis – Key Assumption
A P P E N D I X - D
Sensitivity Analysis – WACC vs TG
A P P E N D I X - D
Sensitivity Analysis – Turnover
A P P E N D I X - D
Sensitivity Analysis – Capital Cost
A P P E N D I X - D
Comparable Analysis
A P P E N D I X - D
Bull/Bear Scenario
A P P E N D I X - D
Montecarlo Simulation-Results
A P P E N D I X - D
Montecarlo Simulation-Variables
A P P E N D I X - D
DDR
A P P E N D I X - D
ROE vs PBR
Overvalued
Undervalued
A P P E N D I X - D
Reverse DCF –Sales, Operating Profit growth expectation
Expected
4.4x
5.8x
Expected
ASICS FY10 Sale must be same as ADIDAS
Unbelievable!!
A P P E N D I X - E
ASICS ESG key matrix
ESG rating with peers
A P P E N D I X - E
LESG rating
A P P E N D I X - E
ASICS’s Performance in the Environment
A P P E N D I X - E
Number of Employee and Efficiency
A P P E N D I X - E
ASICS: Dividends and Share Buybacks
A P P E N D I X - E
Foreign Investor Ratio
A P P E N D I X - E
Foreign investor ratio 55%
Foreign investor ratio 19.78%
Controlling shareholder 78%
Foreign investor ratio 87%
Type of Investor Ratio
A P P E N D I X - E
Institutional Investor Ranking
A P P E N D I X - E
Shareholder benefit program
A P P E N D I X - E
3% of current SG&A
Cannot be estimated accurately
A P P E N D I X - F
Company History
Balance Sheet Summary
A P P E N D I X - F
Income Statement Summary
A P P E N D I X - F
Cash Flow Statement
A P P E N D I X - F
Regional and Category Sales and OPM Forecast
A P P E N D I X - F
EPS estimation
A P P E N D I X - F
FY1 – EPS estimation
Team 30: 124.6
ASICS: 108.98
Nomura: 124.4
Mizuho: 118.6
Financial Assets and Non-financial Assets
A P P E N D I X - F
A P P E N D I X - F
ASICS: suppliers' risk
A P P E N D I X - F
Political Risk
ASICS: increasing R&D expenses
A P P E N D I X - F
Patents
A P P E N D I X - F
A P P E N D I X - F
ASICS P.Run: Meta-speed Patent
A P P E N D I X - F
Comparable Company Analysis
Exchange Rate Trend
A P P E N D I X - F
Exchange rate effect
Depreciation ->
12%CAGR
A P P E N D I X - F
Oil Price
A P P E N D I X - F
Primary Research: Interview across 8 countries and regions
A P P E N D I X - F
Interview summary
A P P E N D I X - F
A P P E N D I X - F
ASICS P.Run: Meta-speed Patent
A P P E N D I X - F
ASICS's P.Run share around the world
ASICS 5 forces analysis (P.Run)
A P P E N D I X - F
A P P E N D I X - F
Growing market share in North America
Economic growth in Asian countries
A P P E N D I X - F
Income proportion (India and Indonesia)
A P P E N D I X - F
Montecarlo- model comparison 1
A P P E N D I X - F
Montecarlo model comparison 2
A P P E N D I X - F
Montecarlo- Model accuracy
A P P E N D I X - F
Montecarlo- Impact of WACC and FCFF
A P P E N D I X - F
India Local Production Ratio
A P P E N D I X - F
Differences between ROIC, ROE, ROA
A P P E N D I X - F
A P P E N D I X - G
Region sales share – peers
240,334 M JPY
2,632 M USD
=389,536 M JPY
23,683 M EURO
=4,222,679 M JPY
46,406 M EURO
=6,868,088 M JPY
A P P E N D I X - G
Beta vs Stock Trend - Peers
PER vs Stock Trend - Peers
A P P E N D I X - G
Training app active users peers (Nike Run Club) – comparison with ASICS
A P P E N D I X - G
Nike
ASICS
Source: Nike IR
Price difference
A P P E N D I X - G
| | | |
Name | Nike Air Force 1’07 | Adidas Samba OG | |
Price in Japan | JPY 15,400 | JPY 16,500 | JPY 15,950 |
Price in Europe | EUR 160 =JPY 27,808 | EUR 120 =JPY 20,856 | EUR 120 =JPY 20,856 |
GAP | 1.8x | 1.26x | 1.3x |
Capex to Sales - Peers
A P P E N D I X - G