Edzo A. Botjes - Risk, Resilience & antifragility - 2024 09 05 @ the Hague
Securing your team, solution and company to embrace chaos
README.SLIDES
Content of this deck is a collection of work by others.
Work of others is referenced per slide.
Therefore this deck is licenced under
Creative Commons By Attribution and Share Alike.
2
‘Each generation stands on the shoulders of those who have gone before them’ Stephen Hawking (2017)��‘. . . each giant calling to his brother through the desolate intervals of time . . . ’ Friedrich Nietzsche (1873)
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
3
Who am I
4
Counting from 2005�7 Sectors,
40+ Clients,
50+ Assignments�Infra to business strategy
81 Born�92 In IT
05 Full time IT
24 Self Employed
@Edzob
(.com, LinkedIn, Twitter)
After a while you see patterns
Edzo Botjes
Organisational Resilience
Antifragility Architect
Trusted Advisor
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
5
@Edzob
(.com, LinkedIn, Twitter)
Shift focus towards sharing knowledge
Research
Educate
Apply
Edzo Botjes
Organisational Resilience
Antifragility Architect
Trusted Advisor
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
6
Index
Index.md
Bonus Slides
7
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
8
My Personal Journey
9
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
10
Software, �Solutions & Enterprises
What is an enterprise?
Hoogervorst, J. A. (2017). Foundations of Enterprise Governance and Enterprise Engineering https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319721064
Dietz, J. L., et al, (2013). The discipline of enterprise engineering. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263068480
11
An enterprise is an intentionally created
cooperative of human beings
with a certain societal purpose.
Dietz et al, 2013
… enterprises aims �to fulfil or address certain (perceived) wants and needs �of (certain) societal member of society at large �by delivering products and/or services.
Hoogervorst, 2017
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
What does this imply?
Hoogervorst, J. A. (2017). Foundations of Enterprise Governance and Enterprise Engineering https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319721064
Dietz, J. L., et al, (2013). The discipline of enterprise engineering. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263068480
12
An enterprise is an intentionally created
cooperative of human beings
with a certain societal purpose.
Dietz et al, 2013
… enterprises aims �to fulfil or address certain (perceived) wants and needs �of (certain) societal member of society at large �by delivering products and/or services.
Hoogervorst, 2017
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Why does this matter?
Habermas, J. (1986, June). The theory of communicative action reason and the rationalization of society, volume 1. Polity Press.
Dietz, J. L. G., & Mulder, H. B. F. (2020, April). Enterprise ontology: A human-centric approach to understanding the essence of organisation (1st ed.). Springer
doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-38854-6 https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-38854-6
Hoogervorst, Jan A. P. 2018. Foundations of Enterprise Governance and Enterprise Engineering: Presenting the Employee-Centric Theory of Organization. 1st ed. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing AG. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-72107-1.
IF an enterprise is a cooperation of people, with a certain purpose, THEN our collaboration determines the data �in our systems.
13
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Why does this matter?
Dietz, J. L. G., & Mulder, H. B. F. (2020, April). Enterprise ontology: A human-centric approach to understanding the essence of organisation (1st ed.). Springer
doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-38854-6 https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-38854-6
Conway, Melvin E (1968). “How do committees invent? Design organization criteria.” In: Datamation 14.4, pp. 28–31.
IF an enterprise is a cooperation of people, �with a certain purpose, �THEN our collaboration determines the data �in our systems.
14
Also known as Conway's Law
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
What does this imply? Take 2
Hoogervorst, J. A. (2017). Foundations of Enterprise Governance and Enterprise Engineering https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319721064
Dietz, J. L., et al, (2013). The discipline of enterprise engineering. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263068480
Daft, R., Murphy, J., and Willmott, H. (2010). Organisation Theory and Design. http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/761007858
This implies that collaboration �in a team, between teams and with your supplier/ clients is an instantiation of an enterprise,
And thus needs �purposeful design.
15
An enterprise is an intentionally created
cooperative of human beings
with a certain societal purpose.
Dietz et al, 2013
… enterprises aims �to fulfil or address certain (perceived) wants and needs �of (certain) societal member of society at large �by delivering products and/or services.
Hoogervorst, 2017
If an enterprise is purposeful, �and it is intentionally designed �then the organisation design plays an important role, �else there is no intention and no purpose.
Daft et al, 2010
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
16
This is not easy!
There be dragons!
17
A story on reality
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_School_of_Athens
18
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegory_of_the_cave
19
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Perspective and information
https://twitter.com/DrNeenaJha/status/1338105837684977664
https://web.archive.org/web/20210420224845/https://twitter.com/DrNeenaJha/status/1338105837684977664
20
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Perspective and information
https://twitter.com/TanMohammedMD/status/1337865483446587392
https://web.archive.org/web/20211225221143/https://www.twitter.com/TLHM_MD/status/1337865483446587392
21
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Perspective and information
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabbit%E2%80%93duck_illusion
https://scitechconnect.elsevier.com/lessons-from-the-dress-the-fundamental-ambiguity-of-visual-perception
22
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Reflections and information
https://twitter.com/NicoleBeckwith/status/1277236284470280195/photo/1
23
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Visualisation and information
https://twitter.com/jimhejl/status/1452814882701824001
https://twitter.com/AkiyoshiKitaoka/status/1568102162064113669
https://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/~akitaoka/index-e.html
Novick, D., & Kitaoka, A. (2021). The Confetti illusion. Journal of Illusion, 2. https://doi.org/10.47691/joi.v2.6152
24
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Visualisation and information
https://x.com/AkiyoshiKitaoka/status/1783764771130785985
https://x.com/AkiyoshiKitaoka/status/1783765416286040153
https://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/~akitaoka/index-e.html
Novick, D., & Kitaoka, A. (2021). The Confetti illusion. Journal of Illusion, 2. https://doi.org/10.47691/joi.v2.6152
25
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Reflections and information
https://writing.exchange/@XanIndigo/109966588561594572
Novick, D., & Kitaoka, A. (2021). The Confetti illusion. Journal of Illusion, 2. https://doi.org/10.47691/joi.v2.6152
26
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
#938DBB
https://writing.exchange/@XanIndigo/109966588561594572
Screenshot�Colorpick
27
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/Magniphy8x51ms.gif
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phi_phenomenon
28
Hidden Slide
29
Rotating Snakes https://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/~akitaoka/index-e.html
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rafaelgiraldotenorio_entarch-activity-6681201385402376192-4MNK
30
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
31
Observation of �reality is broken.
Subjective Chaos
https://twitter.com/AkiyoshiKitaoka/status/1784009348177604803?t=2AzN2jjLP0cRKIVuyHLSaA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabbit%E2%80%93duck_illusion
https://scitechconnect.elsevier.com/lessons-from-the-dress-the-fundamental-ambiguity-of-visual-perception
32
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Definition of chaos by Lorenz
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Norton_Lorenz
Lorenz, Edward Norton. 1963. “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.” Journal of the atmospheric sciences 20(2): 130–41. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2.
‘When the present determines the future, �but the approximate present �does not approximately determine the future.‘
33
Edward Lorenz�May 23, 1917 – �April 16, 2008
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
34
Observation of �reality matters!
Mental Models and Behaviour
Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning organisation. A Currency book. Doubleday/Currency, New York, NY, USA.
Hestenes, D. (2010). Modeling theory for math and science education. In Modeling students’ mathematical modeling competencies, pages 13–41. Springer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegory_of_the_cave
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/plato-myths
35
Mental Model
Behavior
Reality
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Mental Models are in your head!
Mack, A. (2003). Inattentional blindness: Looking without seeing. Current directions in psychological science, 12(5), 180-184. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=inattentional+blindness&btnG=
Jensen, M. S., Yao, R., Street, W. N., & Simons, D. J. (2011). Change blindness and inattentional blindness. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science, 2(5), 529-546. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=15061108287799144011&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5
SCHNEIER, B., & MACAULAY, T. (2020). Psychology and Usability. Security Engineering, 70-116. https://sid.ethz.ch/debian/rja14-papers/SEv3-ch3-dec18.pdf
36
Mental Model
Behavior
Reality
What you do not know,
you can not see [social engineering].
What you do not expect,
you can not see [inattentional blindness].
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Subjective chaos & variety of Mental Models
What is amplifying the variety of reality?
Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning organisation. A Currency book. Doubleday/Currency, New York, NY, USA.
Hestenes, D. (2010). Modeling theory for math and science education. In Modeling students’ mathematical modeling competencies, pages 13–41. Springer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegory_of_the_cave
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/plato-myths
37
Mental Model
Behavior
Reality
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Subjective chaos & Innovation�An example of what is amplifying variety
Huber, D., Kaufmann, H., and Steinmann, M. (2017). Innovation: An Abiding Enigma, pages 11–19. Springer International Publishing, Cham.
https://books.google.nl/books?id=rzckDwAAQBAJ
38
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Value of information
Van Gils, B. (2023). Data in context: Models as enablers for managing and using data. Springer Nature Switzerland. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-35539-4 https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-35539-4
Huang, D.-L., Rau, P.-L. P., & Salvendy, G. (2010). Perception of information security. Behaviour & Information Technology, 29(3), 221–232. doi: 10.1080/01449290701679361.
Eling, Martin, Michael McShane, and Trung Nguyen. 2021. “Cyber Risk Management: History and Future Research Directions.” Risk Management and Insurance Review 24(1): 93–125. doi:10.1111/rmir.12169.
If context is “subjective” this might�impact the value and thus impact�the protection of the value.
39
Information
Context
Data
Value
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
40
So what about objective reality?
41
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Double Pendulum
Shinbrot, T., Grebogi, C., Wisdom, J., & Yorke, J. A. (1992). Chaos in a double pendulum. American Journal of Physics, 60(6), 491–499. doi: 10.1119/1.16860.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_pendulum
Two deterministic systems create one non-deterministic system
42
1
2
Double Pendulum
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Butterfly Effect
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/complexity-academy_complexitytheory-activity-6625721108249354241-MsJ
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Norton_Lorenz
Lorenz, Edward Norton. 1963. “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.” Journal of the atmospheric sciences 20(2): 130–41. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2.i
43
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Objective chaos and organisation
44
Security
Business
Strategy
Information
Information Systems
Infrastructure
Service Management
Security
Business
Strategy
Information
Information Systems
Infrastructure
Service Management
Security
Business
Strategy
Information
Information Systems
Infrastructure
Service Management
Security
Business
Strategy
Information
Information Systems
Infrastructure
Service Management
Security
Business
Strategy
Information
Information Systems
Infrastructure
Service Management
Security
Business
Strategy
Information
Information Systems
Infrastructure
Service Management
Security
Business
Strategy
Information
Information Systems
Infrastructure
Service Management
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Objective chaos in IT
45
Integrity
Access (Identify & keys)
Virtual Machine
Network & Power
Storage
Database
Middleware
Application
Operating System
HyperVisor
Virtual Network
Compute/CPU
Application 3-Tier Layer
Virtual Machine Layer
Virtualization Layer
Hardware Layer
Configuration
Tools/ Services
Data / Interfaces
(DevOps) LifeCycle Management
Dev & Ops Environment
1
2
Double Pendulum
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Objective chaos in IT
https://xkcd.com/2347
46
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Objective chaos in IT
Huber, D., Kaufmann, H., and Steinmann, M. (2017). Innovation: An Abiding Enigma, pages 11–19. Springer International Publishing, Cham.
https://books.google.nl/books?id=rzckDwAAQBAJ
Continuous innovation.
47
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
48
Techstack is broken
Chaos & Technology
https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/information-security-consciousness/71645722
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quinn_Norton
Norton Q. (2014. May 20). 'Everything is broken'. The Message. Retrieved from: https://medium.com/message/everything-is-broken-81e5f33a24e1#.sc7pf19g3 (accessed June 18, 2020)
https://berthub.eu/prewar/ncsc%20accss%20surf%20keynote%20bert%20hubert-notes.pdf
https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/cyber-security-pre-war-reality-check/
"It’s hard to explain to regular people how much technology barely works, how much the infrastructure of our lives is held together by the IT equivalent of baling wire. Computer, and computing, are broken.”
- Quinn Norton 2014
49
49
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
50
Reality is broken
51
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Continuous Chaos
Huber, D., Kaufmann, H., and Steinmann, M. (2017). Innovation: An Abiding Enigma, pages 11–19. Springer International Publishing, Cham.
https://books.google.nl/books?id=rzckDwAAQBAJ
Shinbrot, T., Grebogi, C., Wisdom, J., & Yorke, J. A. (1992). Chaos in a double pendulum. American Journal of Physics, 60(6), 491–499. doi: 10.1119/1.16860.
Derbyshire, J., & Wright, G. (2014). Preparing for the future: Development of an ‘antifragile’ methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 82, 215–225. doi: 10.1016/J.TECHFORE.2013.07.001.
52
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Objective and Subjective chaos fuel VUCA
ISO 31.000 <- DNB
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2014.01.001
https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-16889-0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_complexity_and_ambiguity
Your reality �inside your organisation, between organisations, and around organisations is VUCA.
53
Volatile
Uncertain
Complex
Ambiguous
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
54
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
55
Here
Security meets Sensemaking
Technology �is not the solution.
"If you think technology can solve your security problems, then you don't understand the problems and you don't understand the technology.”
- Bruce Schneier, secrets and lies, 2007
56
56
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Definition of Secure
Schneier, B. (2008). The psychology of security. International conference on cryptology in Africa, 5023, 50–79. Doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-68164-9_5.
Huang, D.-L., Rau, P.-L. P., & Salvendy, G. (2010). Perception of information security. Behaviour & Information Technology, 29(3), 221–232. doi: 10.1080/01449290701679361.
57
Secure
in-Secure
Expectation
Observation
57
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Subjective Story
Schneier, B. (2008). The psychology of security. International conference on cryptology in Africa, 5023, 50–79. Doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-68164-9_5.
Huang, D.-L., Rau, P.-L. P., & Salvendy, G. (2010). Perception of information security. Behaviour & Information Technology, 29(3), 221–232. doi: 10.1080/01449290701679361.
58
Secure
in-Secure
Expectation
Observation
58
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Cynefin Sensemaking
https://thecynefin.co/library/cynefin-weaving-sense-making-into-the-fabric-of-our-world/
https://www.systemswisdom.com/sites/default/files/Snowdon-and-Boone-A-Leader's-Framework-for-Decision-Making_0.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework
https://doi.org/10.1108/08944310510556955
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5386804
A subjective story�can be tackled by �subjective tools.
59
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Cynefin Sensemaking
https://thecynefin.co/library/cynefin-weaving-sense-making-into-the-fabric-of-our-world/
https://www.systemswisdom.com/sites/default/files/Snowdon-and-Boone-A-Leader's-Framework-for-Decision-Making_0.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework
https://doi.org/10.1108/08944310510556955
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5386804
We know we don’t know and thus act differently.
We know things have ripple effects, so we design differently.
60
Holistic
approach
Reductionistic
approach
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Watch tips
An Introduction to Residuality Theory �- Barry O'Reilly - NDC London 2024�https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MPUoiG6w_U
Dealing with unanticipated needs �– Dave Snowden�https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYqWREPb3Lc
61
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Videos on Reality�“Proceed with caution, questioning the fabric of reality can lead you to madness or the truth, �and the problem is, you won’t know which is which” - Lex Friedman
62
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
More videos on Reality�“Proceed with caution, questioning the fabric of reality can lead you to madness or the truth, �and the problem is, you won’t know which is which” - Lex Friedman
63
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
64
We can tackle this
65
66
Resilience &�Antifragility
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Triad of fragility
Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder (Vol. 3). Random House Trade Paperbacks.
Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations.
In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd
conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017
67
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Generic Resilience Definition
Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017
68
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Three subtypes of resilience
Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017
Martin-Breen, P. and Anderies, J. M. (2011). The bellagio initiative, background paper, resilience: A literature review. In Resilience: A Literature Review, Brighton:IDS. http://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/123456789/3692.
Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder (Vol. 3). Random House Trade Paperbacks.
69
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Three subtypes of resilience
Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017
Martin-Breen, P. and Anderies, J. M. (2011). The bellagio initiative, background paper, resilience: A literature review. In Resilience: A Literature Review, Brighton:IDS. http://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/123456789/3692.
Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder (Vol. 3). Random House Trade Paperbacks.
70
Impertinent
Recover
Adapt
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Three subtypes of resilience
Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017
Martin-Breen, P. and Anderies, J. M. (2011). The bellagio initiative, background paper, resilience: A literature review. In Resilience: A Literature Review, Brighton:IDS. http://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/123456789/3692.
Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder (Vol. 3). Random House Trade Paperbacks.
71
Impertinent
Recover
Adapt
construction stays the same�functionality stays the same
construction changes�functionality stays the same
construction changes�functionality changes
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
The business dilemma
Botjes, E. A., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In J. P. A. Almeida, D. Bork, G. Guizzardi, M. Montali, H. A. Proper & T. P. Sales (Eds.), 2021 IEEE 23nd conference on business informatics (CBI) (pp. 62–71, Vol. 01). IEEE. doi: 10.1109/CBI52690.2021.00017
Martin-Breen, P. and Anderies, J. M. (2011). The bellagio initiative, background paper, resilience: A literature review. In Resilience: A Literature Review, Brighton:IDS. http://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/123456789/3692.
Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder (Vol. 3). Random House Trade Paperbacks.
‘Normal’ resilience is not enough, and it is the default language.
72
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Optimize to learn, change and exploit the unknown
73
Optimize
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
74
Mental Models are in your head!
Mack, A. (2003). Inattentional blindness: Looking without seeing. Current directions in psychological science, 12(5), 180-184. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=inattentional+blindness&btnG=
Jensen, M. S., Yao, R., Street, W. N., & Simons, D. J. (2011). Change blindness and inattentional blindness. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science, 2(5), 529-546. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=15061108287799144011&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5
SCHNEIER, B., & MACAULAY, T. (2020). Psychology and Usability. Security Engineering, 70-116. https://sid.ethz.ch/debian/rja14-papers/SEv3-ch3-dec18.pdf
75
Mental Model
Behavior
Reality
What you do not know,
you can not see [social engineering].
What you do not expect,
you can not see [inattentional blindness].
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Learning model of Senge and Hestenes
Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning organisation. A Currency book. Doubleday/Currency, New York, NY, USA. http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/815873729.
Hestenes, D. (2010). Modeling theory for math and science education. In Modeling students’ mathematical modeling competencies, pages 13–41. Springer.
76
Mental Model
Building shared vision
Personal�Mastery
Team�Learning
Systems�Thinking
Behavior
Reality
I
III
II
IV
V
!
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
77
Summary
See - Accept - Act
Chaos is inevitable
Embrace chaos
Optimize for learning
78
Do not focus on �hard controls & requirements.�Be kind.
Decouple to limit impact.
Assume breach.�Assume failure.�Recover, fast !
Exploit the opportunity !
Learn from it !!�Start with PDCA.�Optimize using the 5th discipline.�It is a culture thing a social thing.
Social World
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
79
Appendix
80
Appendix
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Extended list of antifragility attributes
Botjes, Edzo. (2020). Defining Antifragility and the application on Organisation Design (1.0) [Zenodo]. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3719389
Botjes, E., van den Berg, M., van Gils, B., & Mulder, H. (2021, September). Attributes relevant to antifragile organizations. In 2021 IEEE 23rd Conference on Business Informatics (CBI) (Vol. 1, pp. 62-71). IEEE.
81
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Chaos in your team, in the behaviour of your app
82
Secure
in-Secure
Expectation
Observation
Mental Model
Building shared vision
Personal�Mastery
Team�Learning
Systems�Thinking
Behavior
Reality
I
III
II
IV
V
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
Semiotic Triangle
Ogden & Richards’ Semiotic Triangle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_of_reference
Rousseau D, Billingham J, Calvo-Amodio J. Systemic Semantics: A Systems Approach to Building Ontologies and Concept Maps. Systems. 2018; 6(3):32. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems6030032
Dietz, J., & Hoogervorst, J. (2017). Foundations of enterprise engineering. TEE-00
van Gils, B. (2023). DATA IN CONTEXT: Models as Enablers for Managing and Using Data. Springer.
A design (term) is input for a personal mental model.
Both the term and the mental model are used to describe what is going on.
Be aware of the subjective and objective chaos in reality!
83
Mental Model
Thing in the real world
Term
II
Models
Refers to
Invokes
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
84
Mental Model
Thing in the real world
Term
Behavior
Reality
II
Models
Refers to
Invokes
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility
85
2024-09 @ the Hague
Risk, Resilience & Antifragility