Eco-evolutionary dynamics of the Northeast Arctic cod fishery in a warming ocean

Jaideep Joshi^1,2,3, Mikko Heino^1,4, Anna Shchiptsova¹, Ulf Dieckmann^1,3

¹ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria ² University of Bern, Switzerland ³ Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Japan ⁴ University of Bergen, Norway

Tue, 9 May 2023

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820989 (project COMFORT, Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points). The work reflects only the author’s/authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains.

Comfort General Assembly 2023

Planetary boundaries and safe operating spaces

Rockström et al. (2009)

Image credits: Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre, based on analysis in Persson et al 2022 and Steffen et al 2015

• Lacks integration across utility components – �misses trade-offs
• Lacks diversity of stakeholder perspectives –�misses stakeholder conflicts
• We address these issues through the concept of �joint stakeholder satisfaction (Dankel et al. in prep)

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Temperature-rise scenario (SSP – 1-5)

Management regime

(harvest rate, minimum-size limit)

Joint stakeholder satisfaction (JSS)

Stakeholder-specific total utilities

Coupled bio-socio-economic model

JSS calculated by integrating stakeholder-specific total utilities

Stakeholder groups

Eco-evolutionary biological model

Socio-economic model

Fisheries utility components

Environment and management are model inputs

Calculating changes in SOS over time

Dankel et al. in prep.

Employment

Profit

Yield

Stock biomass

Minimum size limit

Harvest rate

Year

Safe operating space

Model calibration: �Trait evolution under status-quo conditions

We account for evolution of 4 traits and 3 life-history trade-offs:

• Growth capacity – growth-mortality trade-off
• GSI – growth-reproduction and reproduction-mortality trade-offs
• PMRN intercept – growth-reproduction trade-off
• PMRN slope – growth-reproduction trade-off

Higher temperature or lower harvest rate: Reduction in growth capacity and later maturation

Temperature change

Harvest-rate change

SOS is widest and JSS is highest in SSP-5 scenario,�robustly for different averaging methods

SOS expands over time with temperature increase

Summary

• Our coupled evolutionary bio-socio-economic model combines accurate representations of the eco-evolutionary dynamics of fish populations with the socio-economic dynamics of fisheries
• Increasing temperatures or reduced harvest rates select for fish with lower growth capacity and later maturation
• As rising temperature has a positive effect on Northeast Arctic cod, SOS is widest and JSS is highest in the SSP-5 scenario
• Likewise, SOS expands with time in all scenarios as temperature increases

Questions?