The BUBBLE
joepareti54@gmail.com 2-10-2021 updated on March 29, 2021; June 1st 2021 June 8 August 31 December 5, 27
‘Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy’ --- Warren Buffett
the cryptocurrencies are discussed more in depth here
A collection of financial nonsense supported by democracy (or chaos)
and here is a taste of what I mean, but surely not the only one: ARCHEGOS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT. If you want to skip the details, go the THIS SLIDE that summarizes
NEW: China’s crackdown on cryptos, and hopefully a more vigilant SEC
The People’s Bank of China summoned representatives of multiple institutions—including state-owned commercial banks and Ant Group Co.’s Alipay—and told them to “strictly implement” recent notices and guidelines from authorities on curbing risks tied to bitcoin and cryptocurrency fundraising activities.
The PBOC warned of the risks to economic and financial stability created by virtual currencies, and the potential for the assets to be used for illegal activities. Chinese police recently arrested more than a thousand people who were suspected of using cryptocurrencies to launder ill-gotten funds. WSJ June 2021
Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler has called crypto the “Wild West” and said more activity should be subject to government oversight. “You may look at it as regulation by enforcement, I just call it bringing people into compliance that are over the line.” WSJ August 2021
Digital Currency vs. Cryptocurrency
La vera rivoluzione monetaria è la nascita della moneta elettronica pubblica, come sarebbe il cripto euro,
[Il vantaggio e’ ] di eliminare non solo le conseguenze negative della moneta elettronica privata come il finanziamento al terrorismo e il riciclaggio di denaro sporco, ma anche uno dei fattori di instabilità.
Il sostegno alla crescita verrebbe attribuito alle banche che rendono il servizio dei pagamenti su nuove basi tecnologiche (per esempio, gestendo i wallet); ma per questo servono capacità imprenditoriali sorrette dai metodi di intelligenza artificiale.
Paolo Savona, Milano Finanza July 2021
More on Digital Currency vs. Cryptocurrency
...
a collection of articles describing the BUBBLE
In just 4 months I have collected more than 80 press articles on this topic; and 30 more over the next 3 months
and yes, I include the green hype, the nonsense behind the so called environment activists that are threatening the oil industries and killing zillions of jobs, and the Metaverse that pushes cryptocurrencies and NFTs
ARCHEGOS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Proven credibility: [WSJ 2012] New York hedge-fund Tiger Asia Management LLC pleaded guilty to a criminal fraud charge
9 years later:
[WSJ 2021 ] Global investment banks Credit Suisse Group AG and Nomura Holdings Inc. incur substantial losses from dealings with a U.S. client, days after a multibillion-dollar fire sale of stocks from a large investment fund. “A significant U.S.-based hedge fund defaulted on margin calls made last week by Credit Suisse and certain other banks
[WSJ 2021] Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG unloaded shares [ in ViacomCBS Inc., Discovery Inc. ], part of the liquidation of positions at Mr. Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management.
Archegos and Credit Suisse: a tale of fraud and incompetence
Now Credit Suisse is picking over what went so badly wrong. The central questions include, why did it give the money back to Archegos? And more broadly, why did it back risky bets to a level that went wildly beyond all its stated norms and projections? Bank executives had even received a stark warning a year earlier on how the bank was handling risk—but the recommended changes hadn’t been made.
A preliminary conclusion is emerging: Credit Suisse’s creaky risk-management systems didn’t do their job as the bank’s guardrails and left it highly exposed to human errors in judgment, according to current and former people at the bank. [WSJ June 2021]
SPAC is the opium
if it Looks Like a Bubble and Swims Like a Bubble … [WSJ january 2021]
When a SPAC buys a firm, it merges with it in a sort of accelerated IPO process—a so-called “reverse merger”—while bypassing the normal scrutiny an IPO receives.
But even some of the people getting rich off the blank-check boom caution that the euphoria could be part of a bubble that overvalues nascent companies.
SPAC = Some Praise Any Clown
WeWork [WS January 2021]
It is SPAC … AGAIN
WeWork is in talks to combine with a special-purpose acquisition company, according to people familiar with the matter, a deal that would usher the office-leasing company into the public markets more than a year after its high-profile failure to stage a traditional initial public offering.
SoftBank and other investors were attracted to WeWork’s rapid growth—doubling in revenue each year. But that growth was fueled by extraordinary levels of spending, resulting in similarly fast increases in losses.
GameStop
Democracy or Chaos (can anybody explain the difference?)
Privatanleger treiben Aktienkurse in die Höhe und Hedgefonds fast in den Ruin. Das Gamestop-Phänomen, das viele Fachleute für einen gefährlichen Irrsinnhalten, könnte sich schon bald wiederholen. [Aufstand gegen die Wall Street - FAZ]
Tesla & Bitcoin
Big bucks diverted to the financial market away from the factory: deja vu
Tesla disclosed its bitcoin purchase in its latest annual report, saying the move aims to“diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity.” [WSJ February 2021]
When your cab driver starts talking about Bitcoin, it’s time to sell
SoftBank
SoftBank has also rolled out or filed listing applications for at least four special-purpose acquisition companies, blank-check firms that go public first and then find a company to take over the listing later. In total, the four are slated to raise as much as $1.4 billion when they list. [WSJ SoftBank Turns $11 Billion Profit, Helped by DoorDash]
high flying fund consisting of ‘disruptive companies’: just change the word ‘disruptive’ with ‘dot-coms’ and the narrative is the same
a number of the stocks held by ARK generate little or no profits, including Roku and Teladoc Health Services Inc., as well as electric-vehicle manufacturer Workhorse Group Inc. and Stratasys.
and here comes the best (when the 10 years T-bond yield goes to 1.5% + ):
When investors short an ETF, shares are created by specialized investment firms known as authorized participants solely for the purpose of lending. That process involves authorized participants shorting the fund’s underlying stocks, which could be adding to the short interest in some of ARK’s holdings
does the crap remind you of (defunct) Long-Term Capital Management of the 90’s ? if you don’t remember go here
In summary: what is a BUBBLE?
plus ça change … history is there to repeat the same mistakes, now using technology, FASTER, and using the stimulus check
BUT: the Reddit trading frenzy and short selling won’t work in China:
Chinese regulators prioritize stability when forming economic and financial policies
AND
There are GREAT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA
Charlie Munger and myself: ‘ great minds think alike’
GameStop
the kind of thing that can happen when you get a whole lot of people who are using liquid stock markets to gamble the way they would in betting on racehorses."
SPACs: the investment banking profession will sell s— as long as s— can be sold.
Bitcoin: the pursuit of the uneatable by the unspeakable.
December 2021 blog on ‘Xi is right to ban cryptos’
backup slides
my collection of press articles on the BUBBLE
January 2021
As U.S. Fights Today’s Problems, Tomorrow’s Inflation Starts to Stir _ Barron's.pdf
Bond Yields’ Jump Could Be a Big Problem for Stocks _ Barron's.pdf
GameStop and AMC’s Stocks Are on a Tear, but Their Businesses Aren’t - WSJ.pdf
Gamestop-Hype_ Aufstand gegen die Wall Street.pdf
If It Looks Like a Bubble and Swims Like a Bubble... - WSJ.pdf
Kommentar zur Geldpolitik_ Angst vor steigenden Renditen.pdf
Markets Look Like They’re in a Bubble. What Do Investors Do Now_ - WSJ.pdf
Melvin Capital Lost 53% in January, Hurt by GameStop and Other Bets - WSJ.pdf
Milano Finanza - 02_01_2021-correzione.pdf
Negli Usa le attese di inflazione spingono il T-bond decennale all'1,2%.pdf
Rückkehr der Monster-Inflation_.pdf
Se Wall Street tira dritto.pdf
Stocks Close Sharply Lower on Concerns About Vaccine Rollout - WSJ.pdf
The Debt Question Facing Janet Yellen_ How Much Is Too Much_ - WSJ.pdf
The GameStop Revolt Has Just Begun. Get Ready. _ Barron's.pdf
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 1% for First Time Since March - WSJ.pdf
WeWork in Talks to Combine With SPAC or Raise Money Privately - WSJ.pdf
February 2021
Aktienmarkt_ Höhenflug von Gamestop vorerst beendet.pdf
Big tech, la festa è sospesa-MFFeb27.pdf
Bitcoins Kurs-Treiber im Visier der Staatsanwaltschaft.pdf
Bond Selloff Prompts Stock Investors to Confront Rising Rates - WSJ.pdf
Boost to Household Income Primes U.S. Economy for Stronger Growth - WSJ.pdf
Cavalcare l'inflazione-MF2-20-2021.pdf
Former Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Is Raising $200 Million for SPAC - WSJ.pdf
GameStop Mania Drives Scrutiny of Payments to Online Brokers - WSJ.pdf
GameStop, Other Meme Stocks Leap - WSJ.pdf
Hedge travestiti da tech.pdf
How Reddit Renegades Helped Theater Giant AMC Avoid a Tragic Ending - WSJ.pdf
Is GameStop a Bubble_ History’s Spectacular Crashes, From Tulips to Beanie Babies. - WSJ.pdf
Jerome Powell Sees Easy-Money Policies Staying in Place - WSJ.pdf
Nasdaq Slumps as Tech Shares Fall - WSJ.pdf
Ora anche l'arte è cripto-MFFeb27.pdf
Reddit’s Valuation Doubles to $6 Billion After Funding Round - WSJ.pdf
Robinhood’s GameStop Debacle Spurs Calls to Modernize Stock Clearing - WSJ.pdf
SoftBank Turns $11 Billion Profit, Helped by DoorDash - WSJ.pdf
SoftBank’s Vision Is Clearest When Markets are Rising - WSJ.pdf
Stocks Cap Losing Week as Bond Yields Jump - WSJ.pdf
Stocks Close at Records, Notch Weekly Gains - WSJ.pdf
Stocks Extend Declines, Led Lower by Tech Shares - WSJ.pdf
Stocks Rise, Putting Dow, S&P 500 on Course for Records - WSJ.pdf
Tech Stocks Bounce Back as Rate Fears Ease - WSJ.pdf
Tech Stocks Drop Amid Rising Bond Yields - WSJ.pdf
Tesla Buys $1.5 Billion in Bitcoin - WSJ.pdf
The Money Boom Is Already Here - WSJ.pdf
This Hedge Fund Made $700 Million on GameStop - WSJ.pdf
March 2021
Archegos Blowout Heaps Pressure on Credit Suisse - WSJ.pdf
Beeple NFT Fetches Record-Breaking $69 Million in Christie’s Sale - WSJ.pdf
Blockchain_ What is it and how does it work_.pdf
Bond-Market Tumult Puts ‘Lower for Longer’ in the Crosshairs - WSJ.pdf
Börsengang von Neobroker_ Robinhood will an die Börse.pdf
Bundesbank-Präsident Weidmann warnt vor der Inflation.pdf
Cash-Out Refinancings Hit Highest Level Since Financial Crisis - WSJ.pdf
Cathie Wood’s ARK Faces Test as Tech Rally Cools - WSJ.pdf
Companies Zoom In on Small Shareholders Amid Retail Trading Frenzy - WSJ.pdf
Deutsche Exporteure freuen sich auf Bidens Billionen.pdf
Deutsche Prominenz setzt auf Spacs.pdf
ECB to Speed Up Bond Purchases to Prop Up Sluggish Economy - WSJ.pdf
Goldman, Morgan Stanley Limit Losses With Fast Sale of Archegos Assets - WSJ.pdf
Grab Is in Talks to Go Public Through a SPAC Merger - WSJ.pdf
Hedgefonds Archegos_ Credit Suisse und Nomura warnen vor Verlusten.pdf
Hedgefonds-Schieflage trübt Börsenlaune.pdf
House Passes $1.9 Trillion Covid-19 Stimulus Bill; Biden to Sign Friday - WSJ.pdf
Inside Archegos’s Epic Meltdown - WSJ.pdf
Meme Stocks, NFTs, Tech Rotation Dominate Crazy Quarter on Wall Street - WSJ.pdf
Nachhaltige Geldanlage_ Wie Kapitalismus den Klimawandel stoppt.pdf
Nasdaq Enters Correction Territory as Tech Shares Sink - WSJ.pdf
Neuer Rekord_ Bitcoin steigt erstmals auf 60.000 Dollar.pdf
Powell Confirms Fed to Maintain Easy-Money Policies - WSJ.pdf
Robinhood to Remove Controversial Digital Confetti From Trading App - WSJ.pdf
Se la Fed scarica il Nasdaq-march6.pdf
Short Sellers Boost Bets Against SPACs - WSJ.pdf
SPACs Are the Stock Market’s Hottest Trend. Here’s How They Work. - WSJ.pdf
Stock Selloff Accelerates After Powell’s Comments - WSJ.pdf
Stocks End Lower Amid Decline in Tech Shares - WSJ.pdf
Tech Shares Fall as Yields Rise - WSJ.pdf
Tech Stocks Poised to Decline as Bond Yields Rise - WSJ.pdf
WeWork Agrees to SPAC Deal That Would Take Startup Public - WSJ.pdf
Why Economic Optimism Is Bad News for Tech Stocks _ Barron's.pdf
April 2021
Archegos Hit Tops $10 Billion After UBS, Nomura Losses - WSJ.pdf
Bitcoin Is Making a Splash. Is It Safe for Investors to Test the Waters_ _ Barron's.pdf
Bitcoin und Negativzins_ Eine verkehrte Geld-Welt.pdf
Cryptomaniac-Mf-April3.pdf
Digitalwährungen erstmals mehr als 2000 Milliarden Dollar wert.pdf
Dogecoin Is a Joke, but It’s No Laughing Matter - WSJ.pdf
Goldman Survey Finds Insurers With $13 Trillion Ready for Risk - Bloomberg.pdf
Grab to Go Public in Record-Breaking SPAC Merger - WSJ.pdf
How Famed Investor Bill Miller Is Roaring Back With Amazon, Bitcoin, and GM _ Barron's.pdf
J&J, Morgan Stanley, Coinbase_ Stocks That Defined the Week - WSJ.log
J&J, Morgan Stanley, Coinbase_ Stocks That Defined the Week - WSJ.pdf
Kryptowährung_ Bitcoin im Alltagstest Erfahrungsbericht.pdf
Kryptowährung_ Wieso Bitcoins (noch) in der Nische bleiben.pdf
Milano Finanza - 02_04_2021-crypto-savona.pdf
Milano Finanza - 02_04_2021-orsi-tori-bitcoins.pdf
Paypal in den USA lässt Zahlungen in Kryptowährungen zu.pdf
Robinhood, Three Friends and the Fortune That Got Away - WSJ.pdf
SPAC Hot Streak Put on Ice by Regulatory Warnings - WSJ.pdf
SPAC Insiders Can Make Millions Even When the Company They Take Public Struggles - WSJ.pdf
SPAC Surge Pumps Up Junk-Bond Market - WSJ.pdf
Was hinter der Kryptowährung Bitcoin steckt.pdf
Why Governments Are Racing to Develop Their Own Virtual Currencies _ Barron's.pdf
Wie die Notenbanken über Bitcoin denken.pdf
Wild Market Ride Lifts Everything From Lumber to Stocks to Bitcoin - WSJ.pdf
May 2021
Behind Bitcoin Price Gyrations_ Rational Action and Wild Speculation - WSJ.pdf
Bitcoin Falls as Much as 30% as Investors Sour on Cryptocurrencies - WSJ.pdf
Bitcoin Is the Apogee of Rational Speculation - WSJ.pdf
Chi gonfia le cripto.pdf
Chi gonfia le cripto-MF-5-15.pdf
Cryptocurrency Has Yet to Make the World a Better Place - WSJ.pdf
Dov'è finita la spac-mf-may8.pdf
Exxon vs. Activists_ Battle Over Future of Oil and Gas Reaches Showdown - WSJ.pdf
From Bitcoin to Dogecoin_ What’s Driving Cryptocurrencies’ Rise and the Challenges Ahead - WSJ.pdf
Ora serve l'euro digitale-mf-may8.pdf
Sarà too green to fail_.pdf
What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money_ - WSJ.pdf
June 2021
AMC Boss Adam Aron Basks in Meme-Stock Spotlight - WSJ.pdf
Archegos Is a Warning for Aggressive Financial Markets, Says BIS - WSJ.pdf
Binance Crypto Exchange Ordered to Cease U.K. Activities - WSJ.pdf
Bitcoin Price Extends Drop After China Intensifies Crypto Crackdown - WSJ.pdf
Bitcoin Slumps Toward Another ‘Crypto Winter’ - WSJ.pdf
Bitcoin, Ether, Dogecoin Prices Slump as Selloff Picks Up - WSJ.pdf
BuzzFeed Nears Deal to Go Public Via SPAC, Eyeing Digital-Media Rollup - WSJ.pdf
Dow Falls More Than 500 Points - WSJ.pdf
Inside Credit Suisse’s $5.5 Billion Breakdown - WSJ.pdf
S&P 500 Closes Higher to Extend Weekly Gains - WSJ.pdf
Stock Markets Cruise to Records in First Half, but Investors Grow Uneasy - WSJ.pdf
Stocks Rebound as Dow Gains More Than 550 Points - WSJ.pdf
Tesla Isn’t the Only Self-Driving Car Company. The Stocks to Buy—and Ones to Avoid. _ Barron's.pdf
July 2021
Altus Power to Merge With SPAC Created by CBRE in $1.58 Billion Deal - WSJ.pdf
Bitcoin Jumps to a Six-Week High - WSJ.pdf
bitcoin_savona-July-end.pdf
Credit Suisse Failed to Act on Archegos Risks, Report Says - WSJ.pdf
Robinhood IPO Prices at $38 a Share - WSJ.pdf
August 2021
Cathie Wood, Meme-Stock Champion Who Bet Big on Tesla and Bitcoin, Stands Her Ground - WSJ.pdf
Cryptocurrency’s Surge Leaves Global Watchdogs Trying to Catch Up - WSJ.pdf
Diebstahl von Bitcoin und anderen Kryptowährungen.pdf
Fed Chairman Powell’s Approach to Regulation Has Drawn Criticism From Some Democrats - WSJ.pdf
Investors Who Put Their Pennies in Coinbase Could Get Pinched - WSJ.pdf
La gabbia dei multipli-MF- August1.pdf
La vera rivoluzione-MF-August1.pdf
Notenbanken gegen Kryptowährungen_ Kampf um Kontrolle übers Geld.pdf
Qui il futuro è cripto.pdf
Reddit Valuation Soars to $10 Billion in New Funding Round - WSJ.pdf
Robinhood Stock Drops After SEC Chairman Warns on Payment for Order Flow - WSJ.pdf
Wieso Soziale Netzwerke Milliarden an Influencer zahlen.pdf
September 2021
Chinas Verbot von Krypto-Anlagen_ Bitcoin ist unbeeindruckt.pdf
El Salvador Becomes First Country to Adopt Bitcoin as National Currency - WSJ.pdf
Inside the Coming War Over Money and Cryptos _ Barron's.pdf
Le ombre del 2008.pdf
SEC Chief Gary Gensler Says the Stock Market Needs an Update _ Barron's.pdf
Stablecoins in Spotlight as U.S. Begins to Lay Ground for Rules on Cryptocurrencies - WSJ.pdf
The SPAC Bubble Is Burst. It May Be Time to Invest. - WSJ.pdf
October 2021( ½)
Bitcoin lässt sich nicht durch JPMorgan-Chef bremsen.pdf
Bitcoin_ Kryptowährung beschäftigt ranghohe Politiker und Banker.pdf
Borse piene di trappole.pdf
Börse_ Keine Alternativen zu Aktien auf absehbare Zeit.pdf
China’s Bitcoin Ban Is a Lesson in Crypto Regulation for Central Banks Everywhere _ Barron's.pdf
Chinesische Regierung vertreibt Bitcoin-Schürfer in USA.pdf
Crypto could cause 2008-level meltdown, Bank of England official warns.pdf
Crypto Exchange FTX Reaches $25 Billion Valuation - WSJ.pdf
Diamogli una regolata.pdf
Dow Jones Industrial Average Ignores Big Risks to Reach Record High. Here Are Next Week’s Worries. _ Barron's.pdf
Government Is Getting Bigger. What It Means for the Stock Market. _ Barron's.pdf
Notenbanken_ Ausstieg aus lockerer Geldpolitik in Vorbereitung.pdf
Should You Invest in the Bitcoin Futures ETF_ Tread Carefully. _ Barron's.pdf
Stock Market Survives Scary Week. Can It Survive Earnings Season_ _ Barron's.pdf
October 2021( 2/2)
Stocks Rise, Shrugging Off Disappointing Earnings From Apple, Amazon - WSJ.pdf
Tesla Is Winning the EV Race. Better Batteries Will Help Ford and GM Close the Gap. _ Barron's.pdf
Tesla Surpasses $1 Trillion in Market Value as Hertz Orders 100,000 Vehicles - WSJ.pdf
Tesla Versus GE. How Earnings Estimates Move Stocks. _ Barron's.pdf
The 1929 Stock Market Crash Caught Nearly Everyone Off Guard. Are We Headed for a Similar Fate_ _ Barron's.pdf
The Stock Market Is Rebounding Despite Risks. Who Is Buying_ _ Barron's.pdf
This Bull Market Can Weather a Setback, Money Managers Say _ Barron's.pdf
Traversata pericolosa.pdf
November 2021
$76 Billion a Day_ How Binance Became the World’s Biggest Crypto Exchange - WSJ.pdf
Bitcoin and Other Cryptos Are Near Records, but Tougher Tax Rules Are Coming _ Barron's.pdf
Bitcoin Falls as Congress Tries to Tackle Cryptocurrencies _ Barron's.pdf
Bitcoin Price Briefly Drops Below $60,000 as Strong Dollar Weighs on Crypto - WSJ.pdf
Black Friday Rout Shows Dangers of Margin Borrowing - WSJ.pdf
Brands No Longer See Metaverse-Like Worlds as Abstract Gimmicks - WSJ.pdf
El Salvador rischia grosso con il Bitcoin bond.pdf
Federal Agencies Crafting Rules Around Banks and Cryptocurrencies - WSJ.pdf
I replicanti dei meme.pdf
Marketers Bet NFTs Can Be More Than Just Publicity Stunts - WSJ.pdf
U.S. Tech Stocks Are in a Bubble. Time to Shop for Growth Elsewhere. _ Barron's.pdf
Weird Finance_ How to Navigate Cryptos, NFTs, and Other Bubbly Stuff _ Barron's.pdf
Why Crypto Will Benefit From Facebook’s Turn to the Metaverse _ Barron's.pdf
December 2021
Bitcoin Price Tumbles After Wall Street Selloff - WSJ.pdf
bitcoin_whitepaper.pdf
Börsenjahr 2021_ Neue Anleger und Bedeutung von Social Media.pdf
Ein Blick in den Maschinenraum der Internetwährung Bitcoin.pdf
Nike Buys Into NFTs, Eyeing Real Money From Virtual Sneakers - WSJ.pdf
Regine di metaverso.pdf
Ruler of the Metaverse_ Blockchain or Big Tech_ _ Barron's.pdf
The Metaverse Is Going to Be Bigger Than You Think _ Barron's.pdf
Metaverse … yes it IS part of the bubble
Aus Facebook wird Meta_ Name steht für eine ambitionierte Vision.pdf
Facebook-Umbenennung_ Anleger kaufen Aktien von Baufirma Meta.pdf
Kommentar_ Die digitale Dystopie heißt Meta _ heise online.pdf
Neos_White_Paper.pdf
Se Zuckerberg si candida a signore del metaverso.pdf
Was hinter Facebooks „Metaversum“ steckt.pdf
LTCM- 0
ltcm-1