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OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FACING UKRAINE’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION

Nationwide Telephone Survey

May 10 - 21, 2023

This research is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Sweden, UK Aid and Global Affairs Canada | Cette étude est financée par l'Agence des États-Unis pour le développement international (USAID), la Suède, UK Aid et Affaires mondiales Canada.

Survey fieldwork was conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology

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Bi-annual Telephone Survey Methodology

Fieldwork dates: May, 10-21, 2023
2,509 completed interviews
The nationally representative sample was random: One-staged sample based on random generation of mobile phone numbers No additional quota or strata was used The temporarily occupied territories before February 23, 2022 (Autonomous Republic of Crimea, city of Sevastopol, and occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) were excluded from the sample. Respondents residing on the territories that were occupied after February 24, 2022, were interviewed (in case they felt safe to answer the questions).
Quality control
All interviewers received a two-level training system Independent controllers conducted quality control interviews 30% of all interviews were checked by controllers All 2,509 interviews were conducted via telephone using CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview) software
The margin of error for national sample is 2.2%
The margin of error is different for every response to every question in all surveys. In this presentation, the margin of error is shown for each question/option This is shown in the example on the right: A is statistically greater than B and C There is no statistical difference between B and C

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DEMOCRATIC VALUES

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How important is it to you that Ukraine becomes a fully functioning democracy? (q10 X Settlement)

“Very important/important” only

National – 95%

In May 2022, the national response was 94%, in December 2021: 76%.

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There are many characteristics of a fully functioning democracy. Of the list, which three do you think are most important? (q9)

Select up to three

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Please tell me to what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (q11)�

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There are several governmental agencies as well as civil society and media working on combating corruption. To what extent, if at all, do you trust the following? (q16)

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GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY

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How would you rate President Zelenskyy’s/Parliament’s/Government’s performance since the start of the full-scale war on February 24, 2022? (q12/q13/q14)

President’s numbers have remained stable.

Parliament, and to a lesser extent the Government, has experienced an increase in “bad” and “very bad” responses

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Of the following people, please tell me whether you like or dislike…? (q31)

Government

0%

6%

4%

9%

6%

13%

36%

33%

36%

48%

49%

Never heard

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Of the following people, please tell me whether you like or dislike…? (q31)

Politics

1%

0%

10%

3%

13%

27%

0%

31%

3%

0%

49%

Never heard

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What is your attitude toward the following parties today? (q30)

January 2023:

A party led by Serhii Prytula – 49% positive

Servant of the people – 41% positive

Batkivshchyna – 50% negative

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Of the following people, please tell me whether you like or dislike…? (q31)

Defense

Never heard

2%

11%

12%

8%

15%

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To what extent, if at all, do you trust the following? (q15)

Overall, the level of trust has decreased, except for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and President.

Trust towards the National Government and Parliament has decreased significantly since August 2022.

Trust towards the local government remained the same.

*

*Split sample: local government vs local government elected through local elections. There is no statistical difference between answers.

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RECONSTRUCTION

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In your opinion, who should primarily fund/oversee the reconstruction process in Ukraine? (q20/q21)

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Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (q22)

48 % of respondents agree that they have a chance to influence decision-making in reconstruction

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There is a lot of discussion in Ukraine about reconstruction/rebuilding/recovery*. What does it mean to you when you hear the word … ? (q19)

Up to three words

Reconstruction

Rebuilding

Recovery

*Split sample: reconstruction vs rebuilding vs recovery

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WAR AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

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How much longer do you expect the war to continue? (q5)

*The wording of the question has changed since May 2022. In May 2022, the question was: “How long do you expect the war to continue?”

In May 2022 18% of respondents believed that the war would last over 6 months, in May 2023: 47%

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Since the beginning of full-scale war, have you or anyone in your family gone without…? (q45)

Part 1

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January 2023

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For the last three months, have you or anyone in your family gone without…? (q39)

Part 1

May 2023

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Let’s talk about the ways this war affected you. Have you faced any of the following? (q6)

Women are more likely to report deterioration of mental and physical health and separation from family.

Men are more likely to report loss of friends and family and loss of job.

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In general, are you optimistic or pessimistic about Ukraine’s future? (q7)

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What makes you optimistic about Ukraine’s future? (q8)

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To what extent would you accept each of the following as the price for peace? (q17)

Ukraine reclaims the territory it controlled prior to 2014 that includes all of Donbas and Crimea

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To what extent would you accept each of the following as the price for peace? (q17)

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Do you think that Ukraine should engage in negotiations with Russia to try to achieve peace? (q18)

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By 2030, do you want/expect Ukraine to be… (q24/q25)

A member state of the EU

A member state of NATO

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When do you think Ukraine will become a member state of the EU? (q26)

Among those who expect Ukraine to be a member state of EU by 2030

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