CEDAR Distinguished Lecture
Choose your own adventure
Larry J. Paxton
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24 June 2026
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24 June 2026
Your nomination letter highlighted your seminal and sustained contributions to CEDAR science through pioneering ultraviolet remote sensing of the ionosphere–thermosphere system, transformative space-based instrumentation, and the development of observational datasets and models that have fundamentally advanced our understanding of thermospheric composition, auroral energy input, and equatorial plasma structures.
It also emphasized your exceptional leadership and service to the community, your role in enabling major scientific advances through experimental innovation, and your long-standing commitment to mentoring and workforce development
Red Pill or Blue Pill?
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24 June 2026
You take the blue pill ... the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill ... you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.
Morpheus The Matrix
DISCLAIMER:
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24 June 2026
Most importantly: be genuine, be true to yourself, believe in your intrinsic worth
Transforming CEDAR and your career
Some thoughts on my own career, life as a human, and the realities of the world
Larry J. Paxton
Experience is the best teacher (not quite)
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24 June 2026
Variety is the best teacher (still not quite)
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24 June 2026
Other people are the best teacher
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24 June 2026
I will be telling you stories that I find relevant to my life and that might be useful to you
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24 June 2026
Where do you want to go?
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24 June 2026
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Moved_My_Cheese%3F
Overcoming doubt and fear, accepting risk, living with uncertainty – heroic, stoic virtues.
There are lessons to be learned from �“The Hero’s Journey”
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24 June 2026
“Whether I shall turn out to be the hero of my own life, or whether that station will be held by anybody else, these pages must show.”
Charles Dickens (1812-1870), David Copperfield (1848-1850)
There are lessons to be learned from �“The Hero’s Journey”
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24 June 2026
Myths and stories survive because they convey universal truths about the human experience.
If you choose to change what you are doing there are great rewards possible but it can be difficult
There are lessons to be learned from �“The Hero’s Journey”
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24 June 2026
“Follow your bliss. If you do follow your bliss, you put yourself on a kind of track that has been there all the while waiting for you, and the life that you ought to be living is the one you are living. Follow your bliss and don't be afraid, and doors will open where you didn't know they were going to be.”
Joseph Campbell
https://www.jcf.org/learn/joseph-campbell-follow-your-bliss
The first step in the hero’s journey is to leave the ‘Ordinary World’
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24 June 2026
https://quoteinvestigator.com/
�
1989, Classic Tales of Mulla Nasreddin, Retold by Houman Farzad, Translated from Persian by Diane L. Wilcox, Looking for the Missing Ring, Quote Page v,Mazda Publishers, Costa Mesa, California -- might be over 800 years old.
Larry Paxton
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CHALLENGE : Change from a ‘scarcity mindset’ to an ‘abundance mindset’
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24 June 2026
| Scarcity Mindset |
Core Belief | Life is a zero-sum game |
Central Question | What is missing, lost, or unavailable? |
Others | Fear, envy, suspicion, and the belief that to succeed others must fail. |
Time Horizon | Short-term survival and energy spent on restricting opportunities for others and gaining access to restricted opportunities |
CHALLENGE : Change from a ‘scarcity mindset’ to an ‘abundance mindset’
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24 June 2026
| Scarcity Mindset | Abundance Mindset |
Core Belief | Life is a zero-sum game | Life is abundant in its possibilities |
Central Question | What is missing, lost, or unavailable? | What is available, possible, and might be created? |
Others | Fear, envy, suspicion, and the belief that to succeed others must fail. | Recognize that you are valuable as are others, collaboration succeeds, success comes in many forms and timescales |
Time Horizon | Short-term survival and energy spent on restricting opportunities for others and gaining access to restricted opportunities | Long-term growth, learning, and investment in others by creating opportunities. |
Larry Paxton
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Abundance Mindset
Larry Paxton
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Transformative Abundance Mindset and Practicing Gratitude
The person that has lost their keys has many options beyond looking where there is no hope:
Rideshares.
Asking for help.
Finding another source of illumination
Wait for a new dawn.
How many can you think of?
I want you to think about how you can transform your life over the course of your career. Find your bliss through examining your life.
Scarcity is largely turbulence not a decline in opportunities
Larry Paxton
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Our ecosystem is being disrupted. We can take steps individually and collectively.
You own your life
Larry Paxton
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CEDAR 2026
https://nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/2023-04/EndlessFrontier75th_w.pdf
The ‘bamboo’ academic research model grew in response to a new enriched environment and the enormous influx of WW2 veterans who were able to attend college
We benefit from a fundamental change in society wrought by World War 2 and the Cold War
Medicine and public health, fundamental/basic science, military and defense research, the education and cultivation of scientific talent, research that supports economic growth, new industries, and employment – were the recognized values of science investment.
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24 June 2026
Has the cheese moved?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Maslow's_Hierarchy_of_Needs.svg
Maslow, A.H. (1943). A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review 50 (4) 370–96
Curiosity-driven research requires that all other needs are addressed
NO...
Has the cheese moved?
Maslow, A.H. (1943). A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review 50 (4) 370–96
Same cheese - new wrapper
NO...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Maslow's_Hierarchy_of_Needs.svg
Think about life as an oak tree rather than bamboo
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24 June 2026
Start from a strong foundation with future growth in mind
Change is hard...�But you have acquired the skills that enable growth
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24 June 2026
Getting organizations to change/innovate is hard
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24 June 2026
This applies to science & research programs as well as commerce
The Journey Begins... dealing with management is one of the trials of the Hero’s Journey
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24 June 2026
Changing how we operate requires management buy-in
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24 June 2026
Reason Managers Struggle to Commit to Change | You must consider this in presenting your idea |
Fear of Negative Outcomes | Change can disrupt operations, reduce short-term performance, or fail, creating risk for the manager. |
Loss of Control | New processes and structures may reduce a manager's sense of predictability and influence. It may run counter to ‘institutional culture’ (e.g. ‘not the NASA way’) |
Unclear Benefits | Managers may not see a convincing case that the benefits (especially to them) outweigh the costs and effort. |
Competing Priorities | Daily responsibilities leave limited time and resources to focus on longer term efforts required to produce change. |
Organizational Incentives | Organizations often reward maintaining current performance more than taking risks on change (success has many parents – failure is an orphan. |
Previous Failed Efforts | Past unsuccessful changes can create skepticism and "change fatigue." |
Human Psychology | Natural biases, such as preferring the status quo and avoiding losses, make change harder to embrace. |
Stakeholder Resistance | Managers may anticipate pushback from employees, peers, customers, or leadership. |
Identity and Success | Changing established practices can feel like questioning methods that previously led to success. |
Change is hard, necessary and must consider other factors�These considerations apply wherever you are in your journey
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24 June 2026
Factor | Why It Helps |
Clear Need for Change | Creates urgency and understanding of why action is necessary. |
Defined Success Measures | Helps managers understand what success looks like and how progress will be evaluated. |
Leadership Support | Reduces perceived risk and signals organizational commitment. |
Risk Mitigation | Gives managers confidence that potential problems have been considered. |
Early Wins | Demonstrates tangible benefits and builds momentum. |
Involvement in the Process | Increases ownership, buy-in, and commitment to implementation. |
Heielmeier Catechism – A Useful Heuristic
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24 June 2026
https://www.darpa.mil/
More words don’t help!
How do you improve your life and that of the people you deal with?
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24 June 2026
Learn to tell your story
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24 June 2026
don’t let negative emotions drive you to maladaptive behaviors
perfect your story every time you tell it
Academic writing - unlearning an unfortunate mindset
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24 June 2026
Written ‘scientific communications’ are not the primary way that value is established within your organization or community nor is it an effective mechanism for creating new opportunities.
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24 June 2026
Parable of the Poisoned Arrow
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24 June 2026
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_Poisoned_Arrow
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24 June 2026
see e.g. Olson, R. Don’t Be Such a Scientist: Talking Substance in an Age of Style. Washington,
DC: Island Press, 2009
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24 June 2026
Can I figure out if this is worth looking at without having to listen and pretend that I care?
Why do I care?
What is new and exciting?
What is in it for me?
What will I be able to do that I couldn’t do before?
Transform the Hazard of the Black Hole into a Feature
‘Maladaptive behavior’ and you
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24 June 2026
Instead of aiding in coping with or managing stress, these behaviors create further stress, sabotage success, and interfere with your personal life.
Parkinson’s Law: “Work expands to fill the available time...” C.N. Parkinson (1955)
e.g. Janis and Mann, Coping with Decisional Conflict (1976)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/27847557
Janis, I. L., & Mann, L. (1977). Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment. New York: Free Press
Avoidance-procrastination leading to forced choice
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24 June 2026
This figure redrawn based on Sirois FM. Procrastination and Stress: A Conceptual Review of Why Context Matters. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Mar 13;20(6):5031. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20065031. PMID: 36981941; PMCID: PMC10049005.
Academic writing - unlearning a maladaptive mindset
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24 June 2026
No message is universal - every audience has a value system – and it is likely different than yours
Tailor your message to your target audience – not the people who already know your work.
Let’s think about NASA and NSF a little differently
Larry Paxton
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The Abundance Mindset is not “magical thinking”
The Abundance Mindset is NOT predicated on more money everywhere.
The Abundance Mindset means that you recognize that there are more pathways for YOU to do meaningful work. (Look elsewhere in the maze for the new cheese)
You may find that you can “Follow your bliss”
The American Geophysical Union Must Act as a Labor Union not an Affinity Group
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24 June 2026
People need time to adapt
Beginner’s mind and exploration
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Remind yourself “I am where I am because I can learn, I can do that hard work of learning. I can eat bitter. I have proved this many, many times. I am worthy of the opportunity to learn, grow, succeed and be happy.”
Being a successful PI, leader, and team member
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24 June 2026
If you wish to cultivate Heroes, be a Hero yourself – take care of your team first, make them feel safe and valued, ensure that they see the value for them in what you, as the Leader, are doing.
Being a successful PI, leader, and team member
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24 June 2026
Leaders Eat Last by Simon Sinek
If you wish to cultivate Heroes, be a Hero yourself – take care of your team first, make them feel safe and valued, ensure that they see the value for them in what you, as the Leader, are doing.
What kind of leadership role do you play?
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24 June 2026
An effective leader adjusts their interaction style to the type of the person they are dealing with
What kind of leader are you?
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24 June 2026
In my experience, scientists and engineers have a happy place in the lower left corner
Plenty of time to think and not a lot of pressure to make decisions or produce a result and not a lot of people required
An effective leader adjusts their style.
We live in challenging times
All of human history has been ‘challenging times’
No one writes stories that began “Once upon a time nothing happened. The end.”
You can make a difference
You can make the hero’s journey
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24 June 2026
The way we talk about the cheese has changed
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24 June 2026
Map your ‘bliss’ into these goals
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24 June 2026
Larry Paxton
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“We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.”
President John F. Kennedy
Rice University
12 September 1963
Larry Paxton
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“We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.”
President John F. Kennedy
Rice University
12 September 1963
The abundance mind set.
America used to describe itself as ‘the Land of Opportunity’
see also speeches of Martin Luther King and Robert F Kennedy
Vision then: the future would be different and better�Vision now: the future is more of the same
Larry Paxton
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Mars Excursion Module 1964 - NASA
2001: A Space Odyssey – released 1968
Two monthsafter the Rice University speech, President Kennedy was assassinated.
Less than 6 years later, humans were on the Moon.
Trade has driven history and shaped society
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24 June 2026
Exploration was rarely a speculative venture funded out of scientific curiosity alone.
Exploration required massive capital outlay, and those investments were only made when there was a promise of a shorter route to market, a monopoly on a scarce commodity, or fresh territory for corporate wealth extraction.
Exploration led by the Merchant Princes
Larry Paxton
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Site Visit | 24–25 September 2020
Orbital Reef
Blue Ring
SpaceX Return to the Moon (...”and the other things”)
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24 June 2026
https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/moon
US Space Technology Market Size to Attain USD 482.58 Billion by 2034�US Space Technology Market (By Type: Space Vehicles, Space Stations, Orbital Launch Vehicles, Deep-space Communication, In-space Propulsion, Others (Support Infrastructure, Procedures, etc.); By End-use: Government, Military, Commercial; By Application: Navigation & Mapping, Meteorology, Disaster Management, Satellite Communication, Satellite Television, Remote Sensing, Science & Engineering, Earth Observation, Military & National Security, Data & Analytics, Information Technology, Internet Services, Manufacturing, Others (Space Medicine, Tele-Education, etc.)) Industry Size, Share, Growth, Trends 2025 to 2034�
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24 June 2026
https://www.statifacts.com/outlook/us-space-technology-market
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24 June 2026
NASA Concept – 2026
The plans look similar to those of >65 years ago
Technology and Will are the enablers
There are interesting problems to be solved
Trade has produced revolutionary capabilities
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24 June 2026
There are revolutionary developments
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24 June 2026
Why 750 metric tons?
That was the mass of ‘Discovery’ – the nuclear rocket that went to Jupiter in 2001: A Space Odyssey
~500 tons of material were required to build, staff, supply and maintain Operation Deep Freeze 2 (1956-1957) in Antarctica Byrd and South Pole Station
See: https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1956/march/operation-deepfreeze-fits-out
There are revolutionary developments
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24 June 2026
NSF CEDAR can redefine success because of:
by
mapping to NASA, NOAA , DHS, DARPA, commercial and industry - not existing, constricting pipelines will create opportunities.
We Talk About Space Weather the Wrong Way�Our focus on extremes (e.g. Carrington) no longer works�
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24 June 2026
Bias | Effect |
Temporal discounting | Future flood losses matter less than present housing benefits |
Probability neglect | 1% annual risk feels tiny |
Availability heuristic | No recent flood leads perceived safety |
Optimism bias | "My house won't be the one that floods" |
Normalcy bias | Future assumed to resemble recent experience |
A Lesson on the Journey to the Abundance Mindset
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24 June 2026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X09_sw_vc6w
https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2005/sep/29/comedy.religion
Emo Phillips
A Lesson Along the Journey to the Abundance Mindset
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24 June 2026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X09_sw_vc6w
https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2005/sep/29/comedy.religion
Emo Phillips
A Lesson Along the Journey to the Abundance Mindset
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24 June 2026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X09_sw_vc6w
https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2005/sep/29/comedy.religion
Emo Phillips
What do heroes look like?�Everyone that made DYNAMIC happen is a hero
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24 June 2026
This is our opportunity to practice the
Abundance Mindset
What do heroes look like?
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24 June 2026
This is our call to action – we need to support GDC-Trailblazer and DAPHNE
Whether we see an immediate return or not
There may be others that will seize upon any negative remarks that experts in our community make as reasons not to prioritize funding of DYNAMIC or GDC-Trailblazer in the PBR
Dao and Stoicism (many others) tell us to accept what we cannot change – peace lies within
Useful but necessary lesson
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24 June 2026
A sincere thank you to you all
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24 June 2026
Changing Your Mindset
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24 June 2026