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CEDAR Distinguished Lecture

Choose your own adventure

Larry J. Paxton

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Your nomination letter highlighted your seminal and sustained contributions to CEDAR science through pioneering ultraviolet remote sensing of the ionosphere–thermosphere system, transformative space-based instrumentation, and the development of observational datasets and models that have fundamentally advanced our understanding of thermospheric composition, auroral energy input, and equatorial plasma structures.

It also emphasized your exceptional leadership and service to the community, your role in enabling major scientific advances through experimental innovation, and your long-standing commitment to mentoring and workforce development

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Red Pill or Blue Pill?

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You take the blue pill ... the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill ... you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.

Morpheus  The Matrix

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DISCLAIMER:

  • This is meant in the context of the 1999 movie The Matrix
  • First appeared in Total Recall (1990) with the red pill meaning a return to reality.
    • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_pill_and_blue_pill
    • see also Philip K. Dick’s story “We Can Remember It for You Wholesale”
    • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/We_Can_Remember_It_for_You_Wholesale
  • Taking the ‘red pill’ means becoming aware of a truth about reality that can be upsetting
  • Taking the ‘blue pill’ is choosing to continue along your current path without looking beyond it.
  • In this context, it does not mean or imply a shift from liberal/progressive beliefs to extremist viewpoints.
  • See ‘pill” description at the ADL website or wikipedia
    • https://www.adl.org/resources/article/extremist-medicine-cabinet-guide-online-pills

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Most importantly: be genuine, be true to yourself, believe in your intrinsic worth

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Transforming CEDAR and your career

Some thoughts on my own career, life as a human, and the realities of the world

Larry J. Paxton

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Experience is the best teacher (not quite)

  • PhD at University of Colorado Boulder with a thesis on observations of atomic carbon in the Venus thermosphere, hot atoms, the exosphere and the nightside Venus aurora.
  • As a postdoc/civil servant at Naval Research Laboratory doing Venus, Earth and Mars remote sensing, the post nuclear environment, and the development of extremely complex data management systems.
  • Joined APL to develop and fly the DMSP Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager; 5 were built and four were flown. In 1994 SSUSI was updated to create TIMED’s Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI).
  • Chief Scientist for the Midcourse Space Experiment’s UVISI instrument suite (4 imagers, 5 hyperspectral imagers) spanning 115nm to 900nm. Worked with Delta 180, 181, and 183 programs.
  • Worked with Congress to develop messaging for dual-use applications.
  • Sounding rocket and Space Shuttle observations.
  • VLEO flight, hypersonics, and (many) missions.

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Variety is the best teacher (still not quite)

  • 1 patent and 16+ provisional patents/invention disclosures.
  • APL has recognized with the APL Spin-off Award for transitioning innovation to funded programs; National Security Space & Civil Space Development Synergy Award; as well as being nominated for APL Invention of the Year several times; nominated for Tech Transfer paper of the Year, and being named Innovation of the Year.
    • APL has nearly 10,000 employees.
    • 3 Publication of the Year Awards from APL.
  • PI for two NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NAIC) awards; a study of new modalities for data and sensor design for geosynchronous Earth Observing satellites and another for AI-enable robotic exploration of the Moon, with a focus on location of water in permanently shadowed regions.

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Other people are the best teacher

  • Elected Member of the International Academy of Astronautics. The International Astronautical Federation Distinguished Service Award.
    • Developed the Small Satellites for Earth Observation, Knowledge Management and Integrated Applications programs at the International Astronautical Congress.
  • Aeronomy Secretary, Vice President and President of the AGU Space Physics and Aeronomy Section, member of the National Academies Space Studies Board, and on over 20 National Academies panels and working groups.
    • 40+ AGU sessions
  • Served on the CEDAR CSSP.
  • Member of an AIAA Technical Committee and has been an invited participant in DoD and commercial innovation symposia.
  • Many other sessions COSPAR, AOGS, etc.
  • Session at Fall 2026 AGU

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I will be telling you stories that I find relevant to my life and that might be useful to you

  • I believe we, as a community, need to change how we think about what we do, how we convey value, and how we grow in our scope and impact.
  • Success is not guaranteed – accepting that is hard
  • There are always exogenous factors that affect what happens to you.
    • It is not what happens to you that defines you, it is how you react – Epictetus The Enchiridion.
    • Act with justice, kindness, and integrity, regardless of how others behave.  - Marcus Aurelius Meditations
    • Remember that all things change, fade, and are ultimately forgotten. - Marcus Aurelius Meditations
    • Success is as dangerous as failure. The Tao Te Ching

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Where do you want to go?

  • Remember, you are not alone. For thousands of years, people have lived in turbulent times.
  • People have developed ways to cope with the world and find meaning in a life that was marked by tragedy, danger, privation and the the lack of security in their person, their possessions, as well as food and water.
    • Remember where you came from
  • You are not what you did for your thesis; you are not what you are doing today. Everyone of you has achieved extraordinary things. Everyone here can do extraordinary things.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Moved_My_Cheese%3F

Overcoming doubt and fear, accepting risk, living with uncertainty – heroic, stoic virtues.

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There are lessons to be learned from �“The Hero’s Journey”

  • Joseph Campbell (1949) introduced the concept of the Hero’s Journey in The Hero With a Thousand Faces : https://www.jcf.org/learn/joseph-campbell-heros-journey
  • Myths show a common structure:
    • an inciting incident
    • crisis
    • transformation and a new life
  • Today we are all faced with the Hero’s Journey
    • The hero is pulled from the usual world into the unknown
    • The hero faces a series of trials, meets the new challenges and achieves a real transformation
    • The hero takes their place in the world, bringing new hope, wisdom and meaning

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“Whether I shall turn out to be the hero of my own life, or whether that station will be held by anybody else, these pages must show.”

Charles Dickens (1812-1870), David Copperfield (1848-1850)

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There are lessons to be learned from �“The Hero’s Journey”

  • Joseph Campbell (1949) introduced the concept of the Hero’s Journey in The Hero With a Thousand Faces : https://www.jcf.org/learn/joseph-campbell-heros-journey
  • Myths show a common structure:
    • an inciting incident
    • crisis
    • transformation and a new life
  • Today we are all faced with the Hero’s Journey
    • The hero is pulled from the usual world into the unknown
    • The hero faces a series of trials, meets the new challenges and achieves a real transformation
    • The hero takes their place in the old world, bringing hope, wisdom and meaning

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Myths and stories survive because they convey universal truths about the human experience.

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If you choose to change what you are doing there are great rewards possible but it can be difficult

  • science is hard
  • science is discovery not iteration
  • science is a contact sport – and you can be bruised but you can survive and flourish
  • trust in your skills and believe in yourself
  • you have already completed one ”hero’s journey” just to get here to CEDAR

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There are lessons to be learned from �“The Hero’s Journey”

  • Joseph Campbell (1949) introduced the concept of the Hero’s Journey in The Hero With a Thousand Faces : https://www.jcf.org/learn/joseph-campbell-heros-journey
  • Myths show a common structure:
    • an inciting incident
    • crisis
    • transformation and a new life
  • Today we are all faced with the Hero’s Journey
    • The hero is pulled from the usual world into the unknown
    • The hero faces a series of trials, meets the new challenges and achieves a real transformation
    • The hero takes their place in the old world, bringing hope, wisdom and meaning

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“Follow your bliss. If you do follow your bliss, you put yourself on a kind of track that has been there all the while waiting for you, and the life that you ought to be living is the one you are living. Follow your bliss and don't be afraid, and doors will open where you didn't know they were going to be.”

Joseph Campbell

https://www.jcf.org/learn/joseph-campbell-follow-your-bliss

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The first step in the hero’s journey is to leave the ‘Ordinary World’

  • Our science is focused on small problems
  • This is driven by small grants
  • Which are driven by sponsor budgets
  • Which are driven by politics
  • Which is driven by ‘value statements’

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https://quoteinvestigator.com/

�

1989, Classic Tales of Mulla Nasreddin, Retold by Houman Farzad, Translated from Persian by Diane L. Wilcox, Looking for the Missing Ring, Quote Page v,Mazda Publishers, Costa Mesa, California  -- might be over 800 years old.

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Larry Paxton

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CHALLENGE : Change from a ‘scarcity mindset’ to an ‘abundance mindset’

  • An abundance mindset is the belief that there are always resources and opportunities if you open your acceptance criteria, while a scarcity mindset is the belief that life is a zero-sum game with limited resources
  • Stephen Covey , Seven Habits of Highly Effective People

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Scarcity Mindset

Core Belief

Life is a zero-sum game

Central Question

What is missing, lost, or unavailable?

Others

Fear, envy, suspicion, and the belief that to succeed others must fail.

Time Horizon

Short-term survival and energy spent on restricting opportunities for others and gaining access to restricted opportunities

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CHALLENGE : Change from a ‘scarcity mindset’ to an ‘abundance mindset’

  • An abundance mindset is the belief that there are always resources and opportunities if you open your acceptance criteria, while a scarcity mindset is the belief that life is a zero-sum game with limited resources
  • Stephen Covey , Seven Habits of Highly Effective People

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Scarcity Mindset

Abundance Mindset

Core Belief

Life is a zero-sum game

Life is abundant in its possibilities

Central Question

What is missing, lost, or unavailable?

What is available, possible, and might be created?

Others

Fear, envy, suspicion, and the belief that to succeed others must fail.

Recognize that you are valuable as are others, collaboration succeeds, success comes in many forms and timescales

Time Horizon

Short-term survival and energy spent on restricting opportunities for others and gaining access to restricted opportunities

Long-term growth, learning, and investment in others by creating opportunities.

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Larry Paxton

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Abundance Mindset

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Larry Paxton

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Transformative Abundance Mindset and Practicing Gratitude

The person that has lost their keys has many options beyond looking where there is no hope:

Rideshares.

Asking for help.

Finding another source of illumination

Wait for a new dawn.

How many can you think of?

I want you to think about how you can transform your life over the course of your career. Find your bliss through examining your life.

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Scarcity is largely turbulence not a decline in opportunities

  • Proposed cuts have been large and recurring (e.g., ~47% to NASA science, ~20% to NSF in some proposals) (https://www.aau.edu/newsroom/leading-research-universities-report/house-bill-cuts-funding-nsf-nasa-science)
  • Workforce reductions and uncertainty are real—thousands of NASA staff departures and NSF layoffs have been reported (https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/11/06/nasa-cuts-departures-isaacman/)
  • But equally real: Congress has repeatedly intervened to restore funding and protect core science. (https://www.commerce.senate.gov/press/dem/release/science-survives-existential-threat-from-trump-budget-as-senate-rejects-gutting-nasa-nsf-nist/)

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Larry Paxton

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Our ecosystem is being disrupted. We can take steps individually and collectively.

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You own your life

  • For the last 75 years, after Vannevar Bush’s book Science the Endless Frontier (1945), science held a privileged place in American society
    • After 5 years of debate, NSF was founded in 1950.
  • ‘Basic research’ defined to cover need for practical innovation and curiosity-driven science.
  • V. Bushs’s book codified a national commitment to basic research for national security, health and prosperity.

Larry Paxton

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CEDAR 2026

https://nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/2023-04/EndlessFrontier75th_w.pdf

The ‘bamboo’ academic research model grew in response to a new enriched environment and the enormous influx of WW2 veterans who were able to attend college

  • grow in a linear path as fast as possible in a narrow area
  • clone yourself with students
  • contend for resources against others just like you

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We benefit from a fundamental change in society wrought by World War 2 and the Cold War

  • Realizing it needed a massive pipeline of technical talent to compete with the Soviets, the U.S. government passed the National Defense Education Act (NDEA) in 1958.
  • Hundreds of millions of dollars were funneled into rewriting science and math curricula (such as the "New Math" and updated physics textbooks).
  • The federal government actively bankrolled college educations for a generation of young scientists, transforming STEM fields from elite institutions into career paths for a redefined middle class.
    • Science education began with a few elite, private institutions offering "natural philosophy.” (Ph.D.!!!)
    • Public land-grant universities, establishing dozens of dedicated agricultural and engineering programs arose in the early 20th and late 19th century
  • Post World War 2 GI Bill or Rights and the Cold War led to rapid growth in the number of universities and the depth of their science departments, funded heavily by the federal government to win the geopolitical tech race.

Medicine and public health, fundamental/basic science, military and defense research, the education and cultivation of scientific talent, research that supports economic growth, new industries, and employment – were the recognized values of science investment.

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Has the cheese moved?

  • Nations stand or fall on their ability to address the people’s basic needs
    • Economic benefits
    • Food and water security
    • Physical security
    • Security via ‘soft power’
      • ‘creating a wonder’
  • ITM science connects to more than just the highest goal of self-actualization … which is what we are lucky enough to experience in our professional lives.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Maslow's_Hierarchy_of_Needs.svg

Maslow, A.H. (1943). A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review 50 (4) 370–96

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Curiosity-driven research requires that all other needs are addressed

NO...

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Has the cheese moved?

  • ITM science connects to more than just the highest goal of self-actualization … which is what we are lucky enough to experience in our professional lives.
  • Nations stand or fall on their ability to address the people’s basic needs
    • Economic benefits
    • Food and water security
    • Physical security
    • Security via ‘soft power’
      • ‘creating a wonder’

Maslow, A.H. (1943). A theory of human motivation. Psychological Review 50 (4) 370–96

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Same cheese - new wrapper

NO...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Maslow's_Hierarchy_of_Needs.svg

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Think about life as an oak tree rather than bamboo

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  • Oaks start out from a seed and grow from seedling to sapling.
  • The initial focus is on rapid growth to assure viability.
  • Over time, they branch out and build an extensive root system that anchors them against storms, and a broad canopy that ensures access to life-sustaining resources
  • An oak is part of a diverse ecosystem and adapts to many niches.
  • Oaks often challenging to identify in the wild because they readily hybridize

Start from a strong foundation with future growth in mind

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Change is hard...�But you have acquired the skills that enable growth

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  • You have already made the investment in learning basic science – something few people do.
  • The empirically demonstrated Logistics Curve or Pareto Distribution shows that in something like 20% of the time that it takes to achieve totally mastery you can get up to 90% of the way to total mastery.
  • OR... that you are capable of learning applications and extensions of your existing skill set.

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Getting organizations to change/innovate is hard

  • Paxton, L.J., Chapter 21 Systemic Engineering and Systemic Innovation, in Infusing Innovation Into Organizations: A Systems Engineering Approach, T. Galpin and A. Darrin editors, Taylor and Francis 2015.
  • Larry Paxton and Shannon Rodriguez Chapter 20 - Leading Innovation into the Future – in Infusing Innovation Into Organizations: A Systems Engineering Approach, T. Galpin and A. Darrin editors, Taylor and Francis 2015.

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This applies to science & research programs as well as commerce

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The Journey Begins... dealing with management is one of the trials of the Hero’s Journey

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Changing how we operate requires management buy-in

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Reason Managers Struggle to Commit to Change

You must consider this in presenting your idea

Fear of Negative Outcomes

Change can disrupt operations, reduce short-term performance, or fail, creating risk for the manager.

Loss of Control

New processes and structures may reduce a manager's sense of predictability and influence. It may run counter to ‘institutional culture’ (e.g. ‘not the NASA way’)

Unclear Benefits

Managers may not see a convincing case that the benefits (especially to them) outweigh the costs and effort.

Competing Priorities

Daily responsibilities leave limited time and resources to focus on longer term efforts required to produce change.

Organizational Incentives

Organizations often reward maintaining current performance more than taking risks on change (success has many parents – failure is an orphan.

Previous Failed Efforts

Past unsuccessful changes can create skepticism and "change fatigue."

Human Psychology

Natural biases, such as preferring the status quo and avoiding losses, make change harder to embrace.

Stakeholder Resistance

Managers may anticipate pushback from employees, peers, customers, or leadership.

Identity and Success

Changing established practices can feel like questioning methods that previously led to success.

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Change is hard, necessary and must consider other factors�These considerations apply wherever you are in your journey

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Factor

Why It Helps

Clear Need for Change

Creates urgency and understanding of why action is necessary.

Defined Success Measures

Helps managers understand what success looks like and how progress will be evaluated.

Leadership Support

Reduces perceived risk and signals organizational commitment.

Risk Mitigation

Gives managers confidence that potential problems have been considered.

Early Wins

Demonstrates tangible benefits and builds momentum.

Involvement in the Process

Increases ownership, buy-in, and commitment to implementation.

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Heielmeier Catechism – A Useful Heuristic

  • What are you trying to do? Articulate your objectives using absolutely no jargon.
  • How is it done today, and what are the limits of current practice?
  • What is new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful?
  • Who cares? If you are successful, what difference will it make?
  • What are the risks?
  • How much will it cost?
  • How long will it take?
  • What are the mid-term and final “exams” to check for success? 

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https://www.darpa.mil/

More words don’t help!

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How do you improve your life and that of the people you deal with?

  • Learn patience
    • Some can learn and some cannot and some will not
  • Cultivate beginner’s mind
    • Share the excitement of what you do
    • Be open to and enthusiastic about new experiences – not afraid
  • Do not focus on the details in talking about your expertise – that is your story not your listener’s story
    • You may only feel comfortable because you have been taught that your value is in your expertise
    • It is not! It is in your ability to use that expertise to help others achieve their goals.
  • If you cannot explain why you do what you do, then develop that story.
  • Practice your story.
  • Build more than one story so that you can connect with different audiences with different needs and backgrounds, taking into account their priorities.

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Learn to tell your story

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don’t let negative emotions drive you to maladaptive behaviors

perfect your story every time you tell it

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Academic writing - unlearning an unfortunate mindset

  • As a community we fail at the craft of building compelling narratives
  • We have been taught that our primary communication mode is through written scientific articles.
  • Written documents ‘document’ practices and procedures but do not create a compelling story.
    • electronic publications are little more that electronic representations of what could be achieved with physical paper
  • Written scientific communications presume reader:
    • interest
    • knowledge
    • commitment to learn as a life motivation

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Written ‘scientific communications’ are not the primary way that value is established within your organization or community nor is it an effective mechanism for creating new opportunities.

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Parable of the Poisoned Arrow

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_Poisoned_Arrow

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see e.g. Olson, R. Don’t Be Such a Scientist: Talking Substance in an Age of Style. Washington,

DC: Island Press, 2009

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Can I figure out if this is worth looking at without having to listen and pretend that I care?

Why do I care?

What is new and exciting?

What is in it for me?

What will I be able to do that I couldn’t do before?

Transform the Hazard of the Black Hole into a Feature

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‘Maladaptive behavior’ and you

  • A personality trait, behavior or coping mechanism that is ineffective, unhelpful, or fails to achieve the intended goal.
  • EXAMPLE: Starting a proposal or presentation at the last minute. Not wanting to let it go; re-editing text, tweaking figures, adjusting format, etc. Working until the last minute.
  • This does NOT make it better.
  • These learned behaviors can arise from:
    • What seems like success (the normalization of deviance)
    • Neurodivergence
    • Inability to escape perfectionism
    • Escaping other social interactions or responsibilities
    • Self identification as doing something heroic (e.g. ignoring relationships, not sleeping, doing it all yourself)

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Instead of aiding in coping with or managing stress, these behaviors create further stress, sabotage success, and interfere with your personal life.

Parkinson’s Law: “Work expands to fill the available time...” C.N. Parkinson (1955)

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e.g. Janis and Mann, Coping with Decisional Conflict (1976)

https://www.jstor.org/stable/27847557

Janis, I. L., & Mann, L. (1977). Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment. New York: Free Press

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Avoidance-procrastination leading to forced choice

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This figure redrawn based on Sirois FM. Procrastination and Stress: A Conceptual Review of Why Context Matters. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Mar 13;20(6):5031. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20065031. PMID: 36981941; PMCID: PMC10049005.

  • In psychology, a "phenotype" is the observable expression of a trait (how you actually behave) resulting from the interaction between your "genotype" (your genetic predispositions) and your environment.
  • In a high stress environment, you may be more likely to retreat to comforting patterns.
    • Everyday tasks can feel overwhelming.
    • Cost to your personal life and your efficacy.
  • Your brain seeks immediate relief from heightened discomfort. Avoidance can become a habitual short-term mood regulation strategy.

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Academic writing - unlearning a maladaptive mindset

  • We think the details matter – but they rarely if ever do to many people.
    • Certainly not in terms of starting new programs and crafting a compelling global-scale narrative
  • We value correctness and that means we always want to get everything exactly right.
    • This does not prepare us for action or taking risks
    • Or trusting the work of others
  • Always start with “Why” not “What” or “How” – that engages more people
  • Practice messaging to engage people that you haven’t met from fields you know nothing about.

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No message is universal - every audience has a value system – and it is likely different than yours

Tailor your message to your target audience – not the people who already know your work.

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Let’s think about NASA and NSF a little differently

  • When we look at NASA and NSF as one organism we can see threats and signs of contraction.
  • Society itself is rewriting norms of political behavior
  • Where is contraction actually occurring?
    • Institutional area (budgets, programs, civil servants)
      • a real decline (cuts, DRP/firings, reorganization, changing institutional norms of behavior)
      • focused and directed research rather than supporting curiosity driven research
    • Mission, science and technology (fundamental research, applied research and technology development)
      • space weather, heliophysics new starts
      • fundamental questions remain in play – with additional means to address them
    • The ecosystem (who does work based on the foundations laid by science)
      • commercial space, AI-driven science, international partners, national security space, philanthropy
  • Advocacy coalitions have reversed cuts (https://www.planetary.org/planetary-radio/2026-nasa-science-saved)
  • Shift toward partnerships with industry, academia, government labs, international organizations creates more ways to create and execute opportunities

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The Abundance Mindset is not “magical thinking”

The Abundance Mindset is NOT predicated on more money everywhere.

The Abundance Mindset means that you recognize that there are more pathways for YOU to do meaningful work. (Look elsewhere in the maze for the new cheese)

You may find that you can “Follow your bliss”

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The American Geophysical Union Must Act as a Labor Union not an Affinity Group

  • Why?
    • Collective bargaining
      • salaries, benefits, overtime, promotions, working conditions
    • Grievance Representation
    • Protection against arbitrary actions
    • Working conditions
    • Benefits and retirement
    • Advocacy
    • Professional Development
  • Why now?
    • Employment stability
    • Protection during reorganizations or layoffs
    • Transparent promotion and evaluation processes
    • Intellectual freedom and professional autonomy
    • Workload and staffing concerns
    • Benefits and retirement security

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People need time to adapt

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Beginner’s mind and exploration

  • The challenge is to accept and act on: “I don’t know and that is okay”
  • "In the beginner's mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert's there are few.” – Shunryu Suzuki
  • Beginner's mind, or Shoshin (初心)
    • children begin with beginner’s mind
    • open, eager, accepting
  • The expert’s mind can be challenged by differences
  • Learn to be humble and open to new experiences

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Remind yourself “I am where I am because I can learn, I can do that hard work of learning. I can eat bitter. I have proved this many, many times. I am worthy of the opportunity to learn, grow, succeed and be happy.”

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Being a successful PI, leader, and team member

  • PI core responsibilities (NASA but with my refinements)
    • PI has absolute accountability NOT sole responsibility
    • PI cultivates the project vision NOT dictates ’good’ or ‘bad’ science
    • PI is accountable for mission finance NOT micromanaged but delegated to Program Manager
    • PI defines schedule and technical milestones NOT dictated but developed with the Team
    • PI leads the Team by working with their strengths NOT by micromanaging
    • PI serves as principal external spokesperson NOT by working alone but by faithfully promoting the Team
  • The PI makes sure important decisions are made by the Team NOT by making all decisions but by having the team embrace what must be done

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If you wish to cultivate Heroes, be a Hero yourself – take care of your team first, make them feel safe and valued, ensure that they see the value for them in what you, as the Leader, are doing.

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Being a successful PI, leader, and team member

  • Bad PI traits:
    • Not trusting the Team
    • Saying “I am playing the PI card – we will do this....”
    • Being responsible for the details rather than assuring that someone else is responsible
  • The more you appeal to your authority – the less you have and the less secure your team feels
  • Good PI traits:
    • cultivate emotional stability (believe in yourself and your team)
    • always evaluate what is important and what, though correctable, is not worth the effort.
    • sharing credit with the Team
    • take care of the Team first and yourselves last

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Leaders Eat Last by Simon Sinek 

If you wish to cultivate Heroes, be a Hero yourself – take care of your team first, make them feel safe and valued, ensure that they see the value for them in what you, as the Leader, are doing.

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What kind of leadership role do you play?

  • If you are serious about increasing the scope of your professional life, go on the Hero’s journey to find a mentor.
  • A mentor does not have to be a person or just one person.
  • There are many resources available to you
    • Remember, one of your cores strengths is scholarship
    • Another is persistence
    • And you have a solid technical base that very few others have.

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An effective leader adjusts their interaction style to the type of the person they are dealing with

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What kind of leader are you?

  • If you are serious about increasing the scope of your professional life, go on the Hero’s journey to find a mentor.
  • A mentor does not have to be a person or just one person.
  • There are many resources available to you
    • Remember, one of your cores strengths is scholarship
    • Another is persistence
    • And you have a solid technical base that very few others have.

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In my experience, scientists and engineers have a happy place in the lower left corner

Plenty of time to think and not a lot of pressure to make decisions or produce a result and not a lot of people required

An effective leader adjusts their style.

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We live in challenging times

All of human history has been ‘challenging times’

No one writes stories that began “Once upon a time nothing happened. The end.”

You can make a difference

You can make the hero’s journey

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The way we talk about the cheese has changed

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Map your ‘bliss’ into these goals

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Larry Paxton

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“We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.”

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President John F. Kennedy

Rice University

12 September 1963

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Larry Paxton

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“We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.”

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President John F. Kennedy

Rice University

12 September 1963

The abundance mind set.

America used to describe itself as ‘the Land of Opportunity’

see also speeches of Martin Luther King and Robert F Kennedy

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Vision then: the future would be different and better�Vision now: the future is more of the same

Larry Paxton

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Mars Excursion Module 1964 - NASA

2001: A Space Odyssey – released 1968

Two monthsafter the Rice University speech, President Kennedy was assassinated.

Less than 6 years later, humans were on the Moon.

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Trade has driven history and shaped society

  • Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium by Ronald Findlay and Kevin H. O'Rourke (2007)
    • Traces how the drive for commercial advantage funded centuries of global exploration, mapping, and conquest.
    • The authors argue that the expansion of physical horizons was fundamentally bound to the "plenty" of trade and the "power" of the military state structures that backed merchants.
  • The Corporation That Changed the World: How the East India Company Shaped the Modern Multinational by Nick Robins (2006)
    • Explorers like Vasco da Gama charted the initial path.
    • Joint-stock corporate giants systematically mapped and dominated the globe.
    • The English East India Company used institutionalized commerce to drive geographical exploration, cartography, and military-backed trade expansion.
    • It was the underpinning of the British Empire.

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Exploration was rarely a speculative venture funded out of scientific curiosity alone.

Exploration required massive capital outlay, and those investments were only made when there was a promise of a shorter route to market, a monopoly on a scarce commodity, or fresh territory for corporate wealth extraction.

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Exploration led by the Merchant Princes

Larry Paxton

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Site Visit | 24–25 September 2020

Orbital Reef

Blue Ring

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SpaceX Return to the Moon (...”and the other things”)

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https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/moon

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US Space Technology Market Size to Attain USD 482.58 Billion by 2034�US Space Technology Market (By Type: Space Vehicles, Space Stations, Orbital Launch Vehicles, Deep-space Communication, In-space Propulsion, Others (Support Infrastructure, Procedures, etc.); By End-use: Government, Military, Commercial; By Application: Navigation & Mapping, Meteorology, Disaster Management, Satellite Communication, Satellite Television, Remote Sensing, Science & Engineering, Earth Observation, Military & National Security, Data & Analytics, Information Technology, Internet Services, Manufacturing, Others (Space Medicine, Tele-Education, etc.)) Industry Size, Share, Growth, Trends 2025 to 2034�

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https://www.statifacts.com/outlook/us-space-technology-market

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NASA Concept – 2026

The plans look similar to those of >65 years ago

Technology and Will are the enablers

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There are interesting problems to be solved

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Trade has produced revolutionary capabilities

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There are revolutionary developments

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Why 750 metric tons?

That was the mass of ‘Discovery’ – the nuclear rocket that went to Jupiter in 2001: A Space Odyssey

~500 tons of material were required to build, staff, supply and maintain Operation Deep Freeze 2 (1956-1957) in Antarctica Byrd and South Pole Station

See: https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1956/march/operation-deepfreeze-fits-out

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There are revolutionary developments

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NSF CEDAR can redefine success because of:

  • low cost to orbit
  • use of industrial parts

by

  • no longer attempting to build space/mass constrained solutions that demand sophisticated technologies (no more ‘watchmakers’ in space)
  • establishing value for industry and academic partners
  • test quickly, fail quickly – learn from failure

mapping to NASA, NOAA , DHS, DARPA, commercial and industry - not existing, constricting pipelines will create opportunities.

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We Talk About Space Weather the Wrong Way�Our focus on extremes (e.g. Carrington) no longer works�

  • Why do people build homes in 100-year flood plains?

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  • IF you can demonstrate via OSSE or OSE that a measurement can improve the performance of a system by reducing costs, increasing margins or provide some tangible benefit – RIGHT NOW! - you will be successful
  • The value does NOT need to be revolutionary – you are not required to save the world!
  • People discount rare future risks but they are attuned to profit margins

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Bias

Effect

Temporal discounting

Future flood losses matter less than present housing benefits

Probability neglect

1% annual risk feels tiny

Availability heuristic

No recent flood leads perceived safety

Optimism bias

"My house won't be the one that floods"

Normalcy bias

Future assumed to resemble recent experience

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A Lesson on the Journey to the Abundance Mindset

  • Once I saw this guy on a bridge about to jump. I said, "Don't do it!" He said, "Nobody loves me." I said, "God loves you. Do you believe in God?"

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X09_sw_vc6w

https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2005/sep/29/comedy.religion

Emo Phillips

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A Lesson Along the Journey to the Abundance Mindset

  • Once I saw this guy on a bridge about to jump. I said, "Don't do it!" He said, "Nobody loves me." I said, "God loves you. Do you believe in God?"
  • He said, "Yes." I said, "Are you a Christian or a Jew?" He said, "A Christian." I said, "Me, too! Protestant or Catholic?" He said, "Protestant." I said, "Me, too! What franchise?" He said, "Baptist." I said, "Me, too! Northern Baptist or Southern Baptist?" He said, "Northern Baptist." I said, "Me, too! Northern Conservative Baptist or Northern Liberal Baptist?"
  • He said, "Northern Conservative Baptist." I said, "Me, too! Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region, or Northern Conservative Baptist Eastern Region?" He said, "Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region." I said, "Me, too!"
  • Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1879, or Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1912?"
  • He said, "Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1912.”

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X09_sw_vc6w

https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2005/sep/29/comedy.religion

Emo Phillips

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A Lesson Along the Journey to the Abundance Mindset

  • I said, "Die, heretic!" And I pushed him over.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X09_sw_vc6w

https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2005/sep/29/comedy.religion

Emo Phillips

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What do heroes look like?�Everyone that made DYNAMIC happen is a hero

  • Three groups just completed a journey that started 15 years ago
    • Two teams were not selected.
    • They are not ‘losers’ – they made the hero’s journey
    • Not ever hero survives
  • In 2011 and 2012 the Decadal Survey recommended a ‘DYNAMIC reference mission’
    • CATE cost $480M (my recollection)
  • The 2013 NASA Roadmap showed that DYNAMIC was not likely to happen under the Decadal assumptions.
  • The fact that 4 teams were willing to submit Step 1 proposals indicated to NASA that the community was able to address the science called out in the previous Decadal and endorsed in the DS2024.

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This is our opportunity to practice the

Abundance Mindset

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What do heroes look like?

  • Three groups just completed a journey that started 15 years ago
  • In 2011 and 2012 the Decadal Survey recommended a ‘DYNAMIC reference mission’
    • CATE cost $480M (my recollection)
  • The 2013 NASA Roadmap showed that DYNAMIC was not likely to happen under the Decadal assumptions.
  • Two teams were not selected.
  • One was.
  • No ‘losers’ – they advanced our understanding.
  • The fact that 4 teams were willing to submit Step 1 proposals indicated to NASA that the community was able to address the science called out in the previous Decadal and endorsed in the DS2024.

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This is our call to action – we need to support GDC-Trailblazer and DAPHNE

Whether we see an immediate return or not

There may be others that will seize upon any negative remarks that experts in our community make as reasons not to prioritize funding of DYNAMIC or GDC-Trailblazer in the PBR

Dao and Stoicism (many others) tell us to accept what we cannot change – peace lies within

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Useful but necessary lesson

  • If you stay focused on:
    • Why has my world changed?
    • Where is stable NASA/NSF funding?
  • Then your mindset will focus on scarcity and react from fear
  • If you shift to:
    • Where are the problems that must be solved, regardless of agency?
  • Make the adjustment that
    • your academic work does not constrain you
    • your academic work prepares you
  • Your work provides the foundation for new branches (“be the oak”)
  • You can open your scope of possible action
    • more stakeholders
    • more pathways
    • more leverage
  • Your institutions are all looking for new options, too. Use your ecosystem. Understand what they value. Shape their values. Provide that to them.

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A sincere thank you to you all

  • “When I was young, I had to choose between the life of being and the life of doing. And I leapt at the latter like a trout to a fly. But each deed you do, each act, binds you to itself and to its consequences, and makes you act again and yet again. Then very seldom do you come upon a space, a time like this, between act and act, when you may stop and simply be. Or wonder who, after all, you are.”�
  • ― Ursula K. Le Guin, The Farthest Shore

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Changing Your Mindset

  • Shifting your outlook requires moving away from automatic fear responses and consciously training your brain to see possibilities.
  • Practice Active Gratitude: Neurobiologically, your brain cannot experience deep anxiety and deep gratitude simultaneously. List three specific things you are grateful for daily to force your brain to look for what is working – this is not limited to your work. Remember: work is not everything
  • Reframe "Have To" into "Get To": Change your internal language. Instead of telling yourself, "I have to do this exhausting task," reframe it as, "I get the opportunity to try this."
  • Create Win-Win Situations: Actively seek outcomes where both sides benefit. Share resources, introduce connections, and mentor others without fearing that their rise will cause your fall. It becomes easier with repitition as you learn good consequences outweigh bad.
  • Monitor Your Inputs: Pay attention to your environment. Limit time spent consuming media designed to make you feel inadequate, and distance yourself from chronically cynical or competitive peers.
  • Ask Expansive Questions: When faced with a limitation, avoid saying, "We can't afford/do/propose that." Instead, ask, "How can we make that possible?" or "What options haven't we considered yet?"

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