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Fundamentals of Wargaming

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

26 July 2022

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Disclaimer

The following views are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Air Force Research Laboratory, Air Force Materiel Command or the United States Air Force

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Purpose

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Provide Connections 2022 participants who are new to wargaming with enough of a foundation in the field that they can productively learn from and contribute to the balance of the conference – and beyond.

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Matt Caffrey

  • DoD Civil Servant – previous positions
    • AFRL Liaison to HQ AFMC for Wargaming
    • Lead Wargaming, Air Force Research Laboratory
    • Professor of Wargaming, Air Command & Staff Col
    • Research, School for Advanced Airpower Studies
  • Col USAFR (ret.) - assignments
    • Senior Reservist, AFRL Info Directorate
    • Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
  • Author/Speaker
    • Author, On Wargaming
    • Co-author, Gulf War Fact Book
    • Three chapters, a dozen wargames, many articles, �hundreds of talks

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Overview

  • Why Wargaming
  • What is Wargaming
  • How does it provide an edge

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Why Go To a Particular Movie

  • Good reviews, from sources you respect
  • Popularity, top box office
  • Past performance, previous movies by the same director, actor, screen writer…

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Why Wargaming

  • Endorsed by Masters of War
  • Universal Adoption
  • Past Performance
    • again and again wargaming has provided an edge

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Why Wargaming�Endorsements

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FADM Chester Nimitz Gen Norman Schwarzkopf Gen William Wallace

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Why Wargaming�Universal* Adoption

  • NATO: Live & constructive +
    • Joint Air Power Competence Center,
    • Sweden's Wargames in support of Partnership for Peace
  • USA: See next slide
  • Russia: Much known of Soviet WGing, catching up
  • China: Soviet > OJT > commercial > centralized
  • India: Live WGs with US & Russia, ops planning
  • UK: Live, virtual, constructive – Civ; def, ed & popular
  • France: Live, virtual, constructive
  • Germany: 2000 Wargame Center at War College

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Why Wargaming�Universal Adoption

  • Office of the Secretary of Defense
    • Office of Net Assessment (ONA)
    • Office of Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation (CAPE)*
    • Policy
  • Joint Staff
    • J-8, Studies Analysis and Gaming Division (SAGD)
  • Combatant Commands (COCOMs)
    • US Central Command, Combat Analysis Group
    • US European Command, Warrior Preparation Center
    • US Pacific Command, Warfighting Center of the Pacific
    • US Special Operation Command, Wargame Center

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Why Wargaming�Near Universal Adoption

  • Services
    • Air Force, LeMay Center Wargaming Institute, Global Engagement, Futures
    • Army, Center for Strategic Leadership, AWC, Unified Quest
    • Navy, Wargame Department NWC, Navy Global
    • Marine Corps, Wargame Department, Expeditionary Warrior
  • Federally Funded R&D Centers (FFRDC)
    • RAND, Project Air Force
    • Center for Naval Analysis (CNA)
    • IDA, MITRE, JHU/APL
  • Defense Contractors
    • Booz Allen Hamilton
    • SAIC
  • Academic; used wargames to teach & wargaming taught
  • Popular; computer, print, miniatures

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Why Wargaming�Past Performance

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Why Wargaming

  • Wargaming saves lives

  • For the side that wargames more effectively

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What Is a Wargame?

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Created by Col Uwe Heilmann, German Air Force, for your instructor in 1999

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Definitions

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Reality

Simulation

Model

Simulation Game

Wargame

Proportional Representation

Over Time

Multisided

Armed Conflict

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Definitions

Wargame: an armed conflict simulation game.

My definition

Wargame: A simulation, by whatever means, of a military operation involving two or more opposing forces using rules, data, and procedures designed to depict an actual or assumed real life situation.

DOD Dictionary of Military Terms (now deleted)

Wargame: A simulation of armed conflict in which participant decisions influence outcomes

Emerging, largely Dr. Perla

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What Are It’s Elements?

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Friendly Forces

Opposing Forces

Game Control

Adjudication

Analysis

After-Action Reporting

My thanks to Ms. Diana Lynn for enhancing this slide.

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The Wargame Process

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Initial State

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The Wargame Process

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Initial State

Blue Plan

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The Wargame Process

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Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

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The Wargame Process

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Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

Adjudication

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The Wargame Process

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Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

Adjudication

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The Wargame Process

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Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

Adjudication

End State

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The Wargame Process

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End State

Initial State

End State Move 1 Initial State Move 2

End State Move 2 Initial State Move 3

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Types of Wargames

Each has advantages and disadvantages.

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Parameters of Wargaming

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Cost

Duration

Participants

Days

300

Hours

Weeks

Months

Years

30

1200

12

6

3

1,000,000s

100s

10,000,000s

Free

1 Billion+

10,000s

100,000s

1,000s

Other Parameters Include:

Depth into future of scenario

Level of War (tac to strat)

Prep time (0 to a lot)

Level of detail

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How Does It Provide An Edge

  • More effective forces
  • More effective employment

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More Effective Forces

  • Education and Training
  • Doctrine and Tactics
  • Materiel

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More Effective Employment

  • Strategic
  • Operational
  • Tactical

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Conclusion

  • Wargaming saves lives

  • For the side that wargames more effectively