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ILLINOIS CIRCULARITY CONFERENCE · 2026

Evolving Paper

Supply & Demands

What disappeared from the curb, what changed in the MRF, and why clean recovered paper still matters.

George Ward Jr.

Waste Diversion Director · Midwest Paper Retriever

Industry Insights · Salon B / South Pavilion 5 & 6

Wed, Aug 19, 2026 · 2:45 PM

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Where this session is going

Three questions, in order — because the answer to the third one depends on the first two.

Illinois Circularity Conference · August 19, 2026

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1

2009 → TODAY

What changed

Paper did not disappear. It moved — out of commercial buildings, out of print, and into a different mix.

2

CURB → MRF

Where grade is lost

Collection design, not sorting technology, decides what grade actually reaches a mill.

3

MILL → MARKET

What still sells

Manufacturers buy furnish, not good intentions. Clean groundwood still has real outlets.

The takeaway: no community controls national paper demand — but every community controls the quality of what it hands the market.

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The paper stream did not vanish. It changed.

A market transition seen from the collection route to the manufacturing floor.

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APR 2009

Industry disruption

AbitibiBowater filed Chapter 11 on April 16, 2009 — an early marker of the structural decline in newsprint and printing-writing papers.

OCT 2014

MPR formed

Midwest Paper Retriever formed after Jordan Trading acquired Abitibi assets and resold them to integrated buyers seeking SCN (58) supply-chain control.

2020s

Digital acceleration

Remote work, e-billing, online news and devices cut printing-writing demand further. COVID accelerated the shift from commercial to residential streams.

NOW

The quality gap

Packaging grows, but manufacturers that need clean fiber struggle as commercial volumes stay lower and residential single-stream blends grades.

Volume is not the problem. Grade is.

TIMELINE — about 2 minutes.��Beat 1 (2009): AbitibiBowater is the marker most people in this room remember. Newsprint and printing-writing were already structurally declining before anyone was blaming single stream.�Beat 2 (2014): that is where MPR enters — the assets changed hands specifically because integrated buyers wanted control of SCN (58) supply.�Beat 3 (2020s): digital plus COVID. The important part is not "less paper" — it is that paper moved from commercial buildings into houses.�Beat 4 (now): volume is not the problem. Grade is.��[Sources]�CourtListener docket, AbitibiBowater Chapter 11 filed April 16, 2009: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/4215245/abitibibowater-inc/�AF&PA: printing-writing capacity has declined as electronic communication became widespread.�MPR formation date and Jordan Trading transaction: internal company history.�[/Sources]

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The measurable shift

Capacity is not the same as curbside generation — but it shows the structural direction of the market.

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78.1M tons

Total U.S. paper & paperboard capacity in 2024 — down 2.0% from 2023, against a 0.9% average annual decline since 2015.

Below 9M tons

Printing-writing capacity after a 6.9% drop in 2024 — the steepest decline since 2021.

More than half

Containerboard's share of total U.S. capacity. Packaging took the lead as e-commerce grew.

Source: AF&PA, 65th Annual Capacity & Fiber Consumption Survey (May 2025). 2000 share: AF&PA capacity trend reporting.

DATA SLIDE — about 2 minutes. This is the credibility slide; slow down.��Point at the chart: printing-writing was 28% of everything this country could make in 2000. It is 12% now. That is not a recession, that is a permanent change in what mills are built to produce.��Then the three cards, left to right — total capacity shrinking slowly, printing-writing shrinking fast, packaging holding more than half.��Say the caveat out loud so nobody has to raise a hand: capacity is what mills CAN make, not what your residents throw away. It tells you direction, not tonnage.��[Sources]�AF&PA, "AF&PA Details U.S. Paper Production and Capacity Trends," May 16, 2025: https://www.afandpa.org/news/2025/afpa-details-us-paper-production-and-capacity-trends�2024: total capacity 78.1M tons, down 2.0%; printing-writing fell 6.9% to below 9M tons and held 12% share; containerboard remained more than 50% of total capacity.�28% printing-writing share in 2000: AF&PA capacity trend reporting.�[/Sources]

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What shifted out of the commercial stream

Commercial streams used to be fiber-rich. Technology, COVID and remote work reduced the volume and moved what remained into homes.

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THEN

NOW

Daily newspaper

→

Digital news

Phone books

→

Search and apps

Catalogs & flyers

→

Targeted digital ads

Bills & statements

→

Electronic delivery

School & office paper

→

Cloud workflows

Loose paper volume

→

More small boxes

More communities are adding curbside recycling — which creates new competition for the Paper Retriever bin, and a new place for grade to be lost.

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A paper bin is a system, not just a container

Age, income and curbside access drive volume. What happens to SOP (37) and SCN (58) depends on which bin the paper lands in.

Illinois Circularity Conference · August 19, 2026

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1

Demographics

Age and income play the biggest roles in how much paper an area generates.

2

Curbside access

The single biggest deterrent — convenience becomes the path of least resistance, and grade degrades.

3

Education

Clear, repeated rules determine participation and contamination. The main lever left after commercial volumes fell.

4

Community ownership

Schools, churches and nonprofits create a reason to participate — and keep paper out of residential single-stream.

5

Placement & convenience

Visibility, access, safety and collection frequency decide whether a good intention becomes a habit.

6

Program feedback

Rebates, scorecards and local impact reporting keep host sites engaged year after year.

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Collection design decides the grade that reaches market

The same household paper, two very different destinations.

Illinois Circularity Conference · August 19, 2026

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SOURCE SEPARATED

Cleaner paper stream
More predictable furnish for the mill
Grade stays visible end to end
Host site keeps its own tonnage story

SINGLE STREAM

Higher throughput and lower cost per ton
More blending across grades
Fiber can leave as a bulk mix
Grade origin is no longer traceable

Neither path is wrong. They are built for different customers — one for tonnage, one for furnish.

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Inside the mega MRF: individual grades can disappear

Operational efficiency produces a marketable bulk commodity — while reducing grade specificity.

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Inbound single stream at a high-throughput facility.

1

Inbound single stream

Paper arrives mixed with containers and packaging.

↓

2

Automated sorting

Equipment targets throughput and broad commodity groups.

↓

3

Bulk fiber output

Ledger, groundwood, small OCC and mixed paper may blend.

↓

4

The “supermix” movement

A growing grade for mega MRFs — consistent supply, but only newer mills with added technology can use it at reasonable yield.

MEGA MRF — about 2 minutes. This is the technical heart of the talk.��Walk the four steps top to bottom. The payoff is step 4: supermix. Define it plainly — a blended fiber grade that mega MRFs can produce consistently, and that only newer mills with the right equipment can run at acceptable yield.��The sentence that lands: "The material still gets recycled. It just stops being available to the mills that need a specific furnish."��Expect a question here from MRF operators about supermix economics. Honest answer: it works well for the MRF and for the mills built to take it — our concern is the outlets that are not.��[Sources]�Visual on this slide was generated with Microsoft Copilot.�"Supermix" and the blending of ledger, groundwood and small OCC reflect MPR operating observations.�[/Sources]

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The manufacturing paradox

Generation declines and grades blend — while specific end users still need consistent, clean fiber every month.

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Molded pulp products and cellulose insulation — two SCN (58) outlets MPR supplies.

Manufacturers do not buy “recycling.”

They buy a usable raw material.

WHAT THE SPEC SHEET ACTUALLY ASKS FOR

Fiber length and consistency

Brightness and cleanliness

Groundwood content

Moisture and prohibitives

Predictable monthly supply

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Why SCN (58) and groundwood still matter

Substitutes exist, but high-groundwood SCN (58) remains the preferred furnish for two outlets we supply directly.

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CLEAN

GROUNDWOOD

FIBER

Bulk & structure

Molded pulp needs fiber that holds a formed shape.

Absorbency

Uncoated groundwood takes and releases water predictably.

Thermal performance

Cellulose insulation depends on consistent fiber density.

Molding behavior

Blended or coated furnish changes how the pulp forms.

The challenge is not whether the fiber exists. It is whether the collection system preserves the groundwood properties these two industries actually need.

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The Paper Retriever model: preserve quality before it is lost

A community program that works as education infrastructure and a manufacturing supply chain at the same time.

Illinois Circularity Conference · August 19, 2026

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HOST SITE

→

DEDICATED BIN

→

COLLECTION

→

PROCESSING

→

END MARKET

Cradle-to-grave visibility

Where the paper came from, how it was collected, and what it can become — documented at every step.

For the host site

A no-cost program, a visible sustainability story, and rebate revenue.

For the community

Fiber diverted before it can be blended — and a reason for residents to participate.

For the manufacturer

A traceable, source-separated supply of the furnish they actually specify.

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What communities can control

No municipality controls national paper demand — but every community influences capture, quality and participation.

Illinois Circularity Conference · August 19, 2026

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1

Design for the outcome

Decide whether the goal is maximum tons, high-value grades, community fundraising, or a deliberate blend of the three.

2

Educate continuously

Make clear that a dedicated bin protects SOP (37) and SCN (58) better than a home cart. Pair education with storytelling and service credits.

3

Measure by location

Track tons per bin, contamination, service cost and seasonality — instead of relying on system-wide averages.

4

Protect the grade

Use source separation wherever a stable manufacturing outlet values the fiber properties you are collecting.

5

Connect supply to demand

Build programs around known end users and their published furnish specifications, not around generic recyclability.

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QUESTIONS

The future of paper recovery

is not just more tons.

It is the right fiber, preserved through the right collection system, connected to the right manufacturer.

George Ward Jr.

Waste Diversion Director · Midwest Paper Retriever

(630) 587-1300

AskMPR@RecyclingIT.com

MidwestPaperRetriever.com

SESSION RESOURCES

Get the slides, the grade guide, and a paper stream review

MidwestPaperRetriever.com/ICC2026

Tell us what you collect and what you are trying to fix — we will send the deck, a one-page grade reference, and a no-cost review of your paper stream.

MIDWEST PAPER RETRIEVER · A THIRD-GENERATION, FAMILY-OWNED ILLINOIS RECYCLER SINCE 1976

CLOSE + CALL TO ACTION — about 60 seconds, then open for questions.��Deliver the closing line, pause, then point at the QR panel:��"If you take a picture of one slide today, make it this one. Scan that and tell us what you collect and what you are trying to fix. We will send you these slides, a one-page grade reference you can hand to your staff, and if it is useful, we will come look at your paper stream at no cost."��Leave this slide up for the entire Q&A — it is the only lead capture that runs while you are talking.��REMINDER FOR THE TEAM: the vanity URL must be live and redirecting before 2:45 PM on Aug 19. Test the QR on both iOS and Android the morning of.��[Sources]�Closing message is this presentation's synthesis of MPR's operational perspective.�Contact details: midwestpaperretriever.com.�[/Sources]